Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World (cnn.com) 73
Posted by msmash on Friday October 15, 2021 @11:05AM from the closer-look dept.
The shift to clean energy is sending the oil industry into decline. But the world needs a much more ambitious plan to save the climate and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. From a report:
That's according to the International Energy Agency, which said in its global energy outlook published Wednesday that more aggressive climate action is needed as world leaders prepare for the crucial COP26 summit in Glasgow in November. "The world's hugely encouraging clean energy momentum is running up against the stubborn incumbency of fossil fuels in our energy systems," Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement. "Governments need to resolve this at COP26 by giving a clear and unmistakeable signal that they are committed to rapidly scaling up the clean and resilient technologies of the future."
More than 50 countries and the European Union have pledged to meet net zero emissions targets. If they live up to those commitments, demand for fossil fuels will peak by 2025, but global CO2 emissions would only fall 40% by 2050, far short of net zero. In that scenario, the world would still be consuming 75 million barrels of oil per day by 2050 -- only 25 million barrels per day less than today. The energy sector has been bolstered in recent weeks by a sharp increase in prices.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/13/ener ... index.html
PeakOil is You
Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World
Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World
by BrianC » Fri 15 Oct 2021, 14:45:36
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World
by AdamB » Fri 15 Oct 2021, 15:51:55
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BrianC', 'P')eak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World (cnn.com) 73
Peak oil happened years ago. Experts told us so. Folks should just stop worrying about it and move on.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World
by ROCKMAN » Fri 15 Oct 2021, 16:54:44
"The shift to clean energy is sending the oil industry into decline." Take my word or not. As some here know I spent 41 years developing oil and natural gas fields. Clean energy (so far) has had little impact. Just find the numbers yourself for all of fossil fuel consumption. Which is now begun a post pandemic increase...including coal. My first mentor when I began (in the 1970's) had it timed out rather accurately: it would become very difficult to continue finding significant oil/NG fields as we progressed into the 21st century. Which is exactly what I personally experienced the last few decades. Which is why I have no mortgage or other debt and easily live off out social security (actually put around $1000 a month into savings) and not touch a penny of our principle. Yes: no mcmansion or new car every few years.
By luck as much as by smarts I retired same time as prices crashed a few years ago. And it had nothing to do with "clean energy". Just as it has nothing to do with current concerns of my cohorts still in the oil patch.
By luck as much as by smarts I retired same time as prices crashed a few years ago. And it had nothing to do with "clean energy". Just as it has nothing to do with current concerns of my cohorts still in the oil patch.
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World
by evilgenius » Sat 16 Oct 2021, 08:29:14
I'm going to hazard a guess that OP wants to talk about the lengthy transition to alternatives, and how it may take too long. I'll start by saying that I understand that we will only have so many percent adoption of EV's, for instance, by certain years. We can just say something arbitrary that is below 50%, and, probably, above 20%, by 2030.
There will still be a lot of ICE cars on the road then. People will only have been increasingly adopting EV's starting from some low number and growing. It won't have been through that many iterations by 2030. Even the proverbial chessboard where you start out with a single grain on the first space and double the number for each new square needs a few iterations before it really gets into the big numbers, and it does get into big numbers.
I wonder if other people think we need to do a sort of dance with average EV range for a while? I think it needs to go up, or we are going to have to reform too many things at once about society. It could get so messy that politically it becomes impossible. Already, there is a problem with the concept of globalization. People are straining against it in a way they haven't before. They can see themselves endangered personally, not some other member of the group. It was easier when the losers in the economic game were always the other people.
There will still be a lot of ICE cars on the road then. People will only have been increasingly adopting EV's starting from some low number and growing. It won't have been through that many iterations by 2030. Even the proverbial chessboard where you start out with a single grain on the first space and double the number for each new square needs a few iterations before it really gets into the big numbers, and it does get into big numbers.
I wonder if other people think we need to do a sort of dance with average EV range for a while? I think it needs to go up, or we are going to have to reform too many things at once about society. It could get so messy that politically it becomes impossible. Already, there is a problem with the concept of globalization. People are straining against it in a way they haven't before. They can see themselves endangered personally, not some other member of the group. It was easier when the losers in the economic game were always the other people.
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World
by Pops » Sat 16 Oct 2021, 09:24:27
In round numbers there are 1.5 billion cars in the world and sales are ~100 million per year. My advanced math skills work that out to 15 years to convert.... if only electric cars are sold. As it is there are something over 2 million EVs in the world, my math doesn't know what percentage that is but it ain't much. Someone estimated a whole 18million by 2030 in the US.
And EVs don't matter anyway if generation isn't clean. The latest there is the democrat form Coal has rejected Biden's wind program, surprise. Unless the Ds can overcome the stark raving madness that is US politics the story will be global warming won't save us from peak oil.
And EVs don't matter anyway if generation isn't clean. The latest there is the democrat form Coal has rejected Biden's wind program, surprise. Unless the Ds can overcome the stark raving madness that is US politics the story will be global warming won't save us from peak oil.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World
by Outcast_Searcher » Sat 16 Oct 2021, 09:39:14
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', '
')I wonder if other people think we need to do a sort of dance with average EV range for a while? I think it needs to go up, or we are going to have to reform too many things at once about society.
')I wonder if other people think we need to do a sort of dance with average EV range for a while? I think it needs to go up, or we are going to have to reform too many things at once about society.
Yes, for awhile. But at the rate EV batteries are improving, by the time the BEV numbers start to get to a meaningful percentage of the new car fleet (I like your 2030 date and your estimate of between 20% and 50% EV sales (I'll use plug-in vehicles for that definition, so including PHEV's, for example)) as a very reasonable estimate of market penetration at that point -- at least for the first world.
Already in the US, for example, with Tesla allowing other EV makes to use their charging stations, and articles claiming EV charging stations are available roughly every 150 miles or less on all major highways, it's pretty much a non-issue for new BEV's having a range over 200 miles, minimum to get people to buy them. And for people who plan to road trip a lot, it's getting easier to find 300 and up mile rated BEV's each year already.
Meanwhile, more charging stations keep being built. As long as the amount being built keeps up with how many BEV's get built as a proportion, it should only get better, re solving real-world range anxiety. (You might have to wait in line now and then, especially at peak travel times like holidays).
And as always, there are trade-offs, like maximizing battery life leads to recommendations like keeping the battery charged between 20% and 80%, and not charging too fast, at least for normal daily use. 10% and 90% is probably OK for the occasional road trip, but going outside those charge levels is generally not recommended from what I've read.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World
by evilgenius » Sat 16 Oct 2021, 10:28:44
We could go solid state, for batteries. If we do that, then cars can be quick charged every time. Currently, if they are quick charged, they form these "dendrites" that can reach to make contact between the anode and cathode over time. Then you get a fire. Doing it once isn't going to make that happen, I don't think. At least that was implied in something I read somewhere.
But people are always running into "emergencies" and taking the easy way out. People forget how often they do it.
People are always trying to mod everything.
I can see some fires, even if the manufacturers try to prevent them.
The point is that, without adopting solid state, we will have to slow charge all of the time. That's ok if the total round trip is just on the edge of the car's range envelop for the weekend. You would only need a little more power to ensure you could get home, where your every day charger is.
If we are talking about longer trips, then stopping to charge will have to be more like stopping and spending some time at an attraction. At least, there is the opportunity for a whole new type of range of businesses to open up where people who need to charge can spend some time. It could have the same effect as the motel business did so many years ago, only it would have to be more multifaceted. Maybe, at the point of least contact it would be like going to the movies. And, at the point of most contact it would mean staying overnight.
The problem with that, as we are seeing with the oil industry in relation to alternatives, is that it takes investment to do this. That sort of investment is currently being put into charging points. They just want to consider whether they will fail with this because they don't have enough points. There isn't really any strategy for land use or anything coming along with this, like they eventually did for the railroads.
Even that is problematic. If they consider land use rules, and solid state comes in, then the legal structure could be in place to ensure the survival of a dinosaur.
But people are always running into "emergencies" and taking the easy way out. People forget how often they do it.
People are always trying to mod everything.
I can see some fires, even if the manufacturers try to prevent them.
The point is that, without adopting solid state, we will have to slow charge all of the time. That's ok if the total round trip is just on the edge of the car's range envelop for the weekend. You would only need a little more power to ensure you could get home, where your every day charger is.
If we are talking about longer trips, then stopping to charge will have to be more like stopping and spending some time at an attraction. At least, there is the opportunity for a whole new type of range of businesses to open up where people who need to charge can spend some time. It could have the same effect as the motel business did so many years ago, only it would have to be more multifaceted. Maybe, at the point of least contact it would be like going to the movies. And, at the point of most contact it would mean staying overnight.
The problem with that, as we are seeing with the oil industry in relation to alternatives, is that it takes investment to do this. That sort of investment is currently being put into charging points. They just want to consider whether they will fail with this because they don't have enough points. There isn't really any strategy for land use or anything coming along with this, like they eventually did for the railroads.
Even that is problematic. If they consider land use rules, and solid state comes in, then the legal structure could be in place to ensure the survival of a dinosaur.
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World
by AdamB » Sat 16 Oct 2021, 10:55:58
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', ' ')Unless the Ds can overcome the stark raving madness that is US politics the story will be global warming won't save us from peak oil.
Maybe all the usual things will save us from peak oil? Like they did all the other ones.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World
by jawagord » Sat 16 Oct 2021, 19:02:25
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BrianC', 'P')eak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World (cnn.com) 73
Posted by msmash on Friday October 15, 2021 @11:05AM from the closer-look dept.
The shift to clean energy is sending the oil industry into decline. But the world needs a much more ambitious plan to save the climate and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. From a report:
That's according to the International Energy Agency, which said in its global energy outlook published Wednesday that more aggressive climate action is needed as world leaders prepare for the crucial COP26 summit in Glasgow in November. "The world's hugely encouraging clean energy momentum is running up against the stubborn incumbency of fossil fuels in our energy systems," Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement. "Governments need to resolve this at COP26 by giving a clear and unmistakeable signal that they are committed to rapidly scaling up the clean and resilient technologies of the future."
More than 50 countries and the European Union have pledged to meet net zero emissions targets. If they live up to those commitments, demand for fossil fuels will peak by 2025, but global CO2 emissions would only fall 40% by 2050, far short of net zero. In that scenario, the world would still be consuming 75 million barrels of oil per day by 2050 -- only 25 million barrels per day less than today. The energy sector has been bolstered in recent weeks by a sharp increase in prices.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/13/ener ... index.html
Posted by msmash on Friday October 15, 2021 @11:05AM from the closer-look dept.
The shift to clean energy is sending the oil industry into decline. But the world needs a much more ambitious plan to save the climate and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. From a report:
That's according to the International Energy Agency, which said in its global energy outlook published Wednesday that more aggressive climate action is needed as world leaders prepare for the crucial COP26 summit in Glasgow in November. "The world's hugely encouraging clean energy momentum is running up against the stubborn incumbency of fossil fuels in our energy systems," Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement. "Governments need to resolve this at COP26 by giving a clear and unmistakeable signal that they are committed to rapidly scaling up the clean and resilient technologies of the future."
More than 50 countries and the European Union have pledged to meet net zero emissions targets. If they live up to those commitments, demand for fossil fuels will peak by 2025, but global CO2 emissions would only fall 40% by 2050, far short of net zero. In that scenario, the world would still be consuming 75 million barrels of oil per day by 2050 -- only 25 million barrels per day less than today. The energy sector has been bolstered in recent weeks by a sharp increase in prices.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/13/ener ... index.html
Other than Fatih, how many people believe these countries will live up to their commitments when the going green gets expensive? Europe and China are being punished with sky high prices for nat gas and coal to generate electricity. Solar and Wind power are intermittent and unreliable. How do countries power fleets of EV’s while shuttering coal and nuclear power plants?
The US is probably 5 years away from a UK moment of spiking prices in gas and 1970’s type power outages given the retirement slope of coal and nuclear and the ESG movement curtailing new investment in oil, gas and nuclear energy. The pendulum will swing back, with Line 3 completed and the US exporting record amounts of LNG, prospects for Western Canadian oil and gas are already the best they’ve looked since the halcyon days of 2014, I expect oil’s days are far from over, even in the lower 48.
Natural gas prices in Europe and Asia have skyrocketed, while the cost of coal in China is at a record. That's helped push oil prices to their highest level since 2014, as some energy suppliers turn to oil for power generation.
Slated retirements to cut US coal fleet to less than half 2015 capacity by 2035
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintellig ... 5-65741012
Don't deny the peak!
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