[ralfy]

https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/202 ... went-away/

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')echnological optimists think that unconventional oil will push the peak of total oil production into the distant future. I’m more skeptical. Assuming Hallock’s model is right, I doubt that unconventional oil sources will offset the coming collapse of conventional crude production. In fact, I’d go a step further and say that we’re able to harvest low-quality shale oil precisely because we’re producing so much conventional crude. Take away the conventional crude, and I’d guess that harvesting low-quality shale oil will become unfeasible.

Whatever happens, it’s clear that the future will be unlike the past. Every living human has known nothing but energy boom. But when you harvest an exhaustible resource, the bust always comes. It’s just a matter of when.

[AdamB]

Long time no see Ralfy. Has peak oil years ago (any of the 7 claimed this century for that matter) bothered you much in whatever third world country you live in? Still have that Biblically long peak oil reference website, and have you checked it against the reality that happened instead? How do those claimed peak oil consequences match up against this latest idea?

[Pops]

Hey Ralphy,
Of course peak oil never went away, depletion, after all, never sleeps.
The catch is that politics doesn't either.
The USSR and its oil production broke down back when — then came back big time.
Iraq oil was under poor management so the US magnanimously instituted a hostile takeover.
Those 2 regions of good old crude will contribute more to oil production long term than the light-tight-ponzi scheme —although we can all be thankful for the cheap plastic everything, tamper-proof packaging and especially half pound clamshell lettuce containers fracking brought us.

http://crudeoilpeak.info/latest-graphs



https://www.oilystuffblog.com/chart-stuff

http://crudeoilpeak.info/latest-graphs

Your guy said it, LTO is enabled by conventional oil, not to mention all the imaginary money looking for an ignition source and politicians of every stripe afraid to tell the truth. Look at the POTUS, ostensibly the Great Climate Change Warrior begging Saudi to lower oil prices. I'd hoped we were going to make a transition but unfortunately I'm coming around to the thought that our play-acting toward replacing fossil with renewable electricity is just the same, a fossil powered boondoggle.

We have the whole wrong idea about what is required. We won't simply flip the fuel selector switch to Nirvana, we'll put the whole thing up on jacks and make it a chicken coop—and it won't even be paid off! That'll show 'em!

LOL
.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'H')ey Ralphy,
Of course peak oil never went away, depletion, after all, never sleeps.

...

Your guy said it, LTO is enabled by conventional oil, not to mention all the imaginary money looking for an ignition source and politicians of every stripe afraid to tell the truth. Look at the POTUS, ostensibly the Great Climate Change Warrior begging Saudi to lower oil prices. I'd hoped we were going to make a transition but unfortunately I'm coming around to the thought that our play-acting toward replacing fossil with renewable electricity is just the same, a fossil powered boondoggle.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'H')ey Ralphy,
Of course peak oil never went away, depletion, after all, never sleeps.

[Tanada]

Not to put too fine a point on it but every aspect of our current western way of life is predicated on cheap energy. I know this is a very old argument but as the last staff Moderate standing I feel obliged to point out that motivated humans can drop all the bureaucratic BS and build industrial facilities very quickly when they feel motivated to do so.

The USA currently has an abundance of Natural Gas that we are selling as LNG across to both Europe to the east and Asia to the west. However it has been known for well over a century now that using Natural Gas as a feedstock you can synthetically produce high octane gasoline, jet fuel and diesel fuel. No we probably can not replace all our oil consumption overnight, however as is often pointed out oil does not decline in a cliff as so many fast crash predictions claim, it declines in a steep curve. You do not have to replace all the oil consumption overnight, just the decline portion. As prices escalate conservation will kick back in just as it did in 2005-2008. Now add in the more recent EV vehicles being added all the time to the vehicle population.

So yes Peak Oil is still real and Yes it will be a major PITA as we adapt to a new way of life. However humans are pretty good at adapting to changed circumstances and I expect our civilization will remain function for at least a decade into the decline, by which time I will probably be dead from some ailment or another. How many of the rest of you will still be around is not for me to even speculate on, but I expect the younger generation to have a very different oil experience than any of us had in the last 100 years as car culture took over America.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'N')ot to put too fine a point on it but every aspect of our current western way of life is predicated on cheap energy.

[theluckycountry]

I know my country, Australia, peaked in production in 2001, and that's when debt really started to replace earnings and savings for major purchases. The house price increase ATM effect in most cases. But that didn't stop living standards declining for the rest who chose not to go into debt. There is a direct link between peaking and the decline of modern nations, the US throughout the 70's went into it quite obviously. No more free college, military scaling back, inflation eroding wages. It's hard to see the damage when you're living through it, the frog in the pot phenomena, but the US is a shell, a dry husk compared to what it was before the peak of it's convention oil production.

Norway is still doing ok, booming in fact! No infrastructure collapse there, they are building superhighways under the ocean lol. But in the US and Australia, Decay decay decay. Since out modern nations were literally built on cheap oil, this ceaseless erosion of infrastructure is the true measure of peak as far as I'm concerned. Tight oil, Shale oil, It's all smoke and mirrors and even the great and mighty Gas boom has not helped as far as I can see. It's major benefit is in it's export, to try and balance the books for all the imported oil. EV's are a BS distraction too, just like wind turbines and solar panels, just another way to waste oil, but certainly more stylish. They are Hopium to keep the masses from panicking about what happens when the oil runs out. When the oil runs out, so do electric cars, so do solar panels.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', ' ') EV's are a BS distraction too, just like wind turbines and solar panels, just another way to waste oil, but certainly more stylish. They are Hopium to keep the masses from panicking about what happens when the oil runs out.

[theluckycountry]

Sorry adamB, but I like rational discussion, and you're just too much of a nutcase to bother listening to. Enjoy your basement life

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', ' ')the US is a shell, a dry husk compared to what it was before the peak of it's convention oil production.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'S')orry adamB, but I like rational discussion, and you're just too much of a nutcase to bother listening to. Enjoy your basement life

[mousepad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')The first few hundred years of Europeans in the Americas was powered by African slaves

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'S')orry adamB, but I like rational discussion, and you're just too much of a nutcase to bother listening to. Enjoy your basement life

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'S')orry adamB, but I like rational discussion, and you're just too much of a nutcase to bother listening to. Enjoy your basement life

[theluckycountry]

An old relic in other words. Someone out of touch with the realities of the 21st century and desperately trying to drag everyone back into the last one.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'A')n old relic in other words.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'A')n old relic in other words. Someone out of touch with the realities of the 21st century and desperately trying to drag everyone back into the last one.

[ROCKMAN]

Lucky - I'm missing your point. The vast majority of tech used today by everyone, including you, was developed in the last century. Some being improved to some degree in the last 20 years for sure. But the basis has been around for much longer. But there are some old farts left around like me that don't pay much attention to new ideas like bitcoins, mini drones, you, etc. Our loss I suppose. But at 70 yo with a terminal condition I won't have too long to worry about it. LOL

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '[')
I agree re disappointment over Biden begging the Saudis for lower oil prices.

That's the kind of thing I'd expect from the GOP, quite frankly.