[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '
')You can see the 2nd law of thermodynamics working.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '
')The price trend gets very volatile, but i assume the production trend gets more stabile.

[suxs]

@ Outcast Searcher

Since my comment is not appearing in the other section, I am repeating for the sake of clarification.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f you don't know that burning fossil fuels produce CO2, do you know anything re climate change?

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('suxs', '@') Outcast Searcher

Since my comment is not appearing in the other section, I am repeating for the sake of clarification.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f you don't know that burning fossil fuels produce CO2, do you know anything re climate change?

[Roxy]

Hey Baudilla,

What do you expect to happen in the next 1-3 years with our economy?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roxy', 'H')ey Baudilla,

What do you expect to happen in the next 1-3 years with our economy?

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roxy', 'H')ey Baudilla,

What do you expect to happen in the next 1-3 years with our economy?

[Baduila]

@roxy:

Define "our". This depends on the country where you live.
Some countries have collapsed: Venezuela, Haiti, Syria, Irak, Libanon, Libya....
Others will follow: India....
Puerto Rico will be the first part of the USA collapsing.

The more oil the economy uses and needs, the sooner the downturn.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '
')Some countries have collapsed: Venezuela, Haiti, Syria, Irak, Libanon, Libya....
Others will follow: India....
Puerto Rico will be the first part of the USA collapsing.

The more oil the economy uses and needs, the sooner the downturn.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '
')The more oil the economy uses and needs, the sooner the downturn.

[Baduila]

One month has passed, OPEC+ is stable, keeps its production low and the oil price high.



The world faces an energy crisis, especially car producers are hit. But they have a special name for it, they call it "Chip Crisis".
Some countries run out of natural gas, some out of coal.
Oil production now has a EROI<1. Or should i write EROI<<1 ?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', 'O')ne month has passed, OPEC+ is stable, keeps its production low and the oil price high.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '
')The world faces an energy crisis, especially car producers are hit. But they have a special name for it, they call it "Chip Crisis".
Some countries run out of natural gas, some out of coal.
Oil production now has a EROI<1. Or should i write EROI<<1 ?

[Outcast_Searcher]

Re ETP theory and the calendar, here we are under 10 weeks from year-end 2021.

Yes, 12/31/2021, the date ETP predicted oil would be too cheap to be worth pumping, the world would be in a horrible economic depression from lack of goods due to that, and that STI crude oil would be $2 a barrel and rapidly falling.

And yet, in the REAL world, WTI is hanging out solidly above $80 a BBL, and could well still be in an uptrend. And people still gas up, go to work, run their errands, go on vacations, buy lots of consumer crap, etc. BUSINESS AS USUAL, despite the ongoing global Covid-19 pandemic.

And in the real world, the articles I've read which actually make sense, point out that companies aren't yet ready to jump in and open up fracking operations in areas they closed down. There is risk that at some point OPEC could open the spigots again, so it will take higher prices over time to entice them to do that. Because, apparently (I'm not an oil man, this is what I've read) it will take a pretty lot of work drilling a LOT of new wells to get such an area efficiently producing LTO again, even at current prices. Since oil companies are still making a pretty fair amount of money, paying good dividends, etc. (see CVX for example), why should they take the risk?

It's an interesting conundrum. I'm glad I hold oil stocks and a natural resources fund over time, as an inflation hedge.

One thing re crude oil price forecasts that is NOWHERE on the horizon of anyone sane enough to live outside a loony bin is that crude oil is approaching $2 a BBL for a meaningful time frame because it takes too much energy to pump it because "thermodynamics".

[Outcast_Searcher]

Re crude oil prices, the trend, and the lack of new supply, maybe we'll get to test how the global economy does on $120 or $150 crude oil this time around for a meaningful period, depending on how long the oil industry outside OPEC is willing to wait to pile back into oil fracking in a big way.

I'll predict, as usual, and was the case mid 2010 to mid 2014, far more wailing and chest beating than actual serious consequences, aside from inconvenience. (Even if we get to $200, as long as that isn't too quickly.)

And those $120 to $150 prices would be a very GOOD thing, because THAT would really goose EV's in a serious way over time, at least in the US, no government mandates or credits needed. But that coupled with large BEV credits likely coming in the US should make BEV's quite compelling by mid decade, especially if BEV battery prices continue to drop and BEV ranges continue to rise.

[Roxy]

Not sure if oil prices will reach that high as it may crash the economy before that. I also don't think battery prices will fall any further as I once read a story that they will not fall any further. I forget where though.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roxy', 'N')ot sure if oil prices will reach that high as it may crash the economy before that. I also don't think battery prices will fall any further as I once read a story that they will not fall any further. I forget where though.

[Roxy]

I’m sure that those prices are going to continue to fall in this inflation environment. I thought you were such an educated economists that you would have figured that out.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roxy', 'I')’m sure that those prices are going to continue to fall in this inflation environment. I thought you were such an educated economists that you would have figured that out.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roxy', 'I')’m sure that those prices are going to continue to fall in this inflation environment. I thought you were such an educated economists that you would have figured that out.