by Outcast_Searcher » Sat 28 Aug 2021, 14:34:22
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')The biggest mistake we make is looking at the future through the lens of the present. Say, thinking that since the average rich-worlder today drives 15,000 miles a year to choose from 57 varieties of deodorant that the success or failure of our society is gauged by the preservation if not increase of such statistics.
The post-fossil world will be as different from today as today is from the pre-fossil world: that is my trope. I hope we can ride the fossils down to a soft, renewable landing. I would be happy to know that my great grandkids (not to mention myself) will have lights and some radio, if not refrigeration.
That could be right. It would be consistent with a slow crash scenario vs. the fast crash scenario.
But of course, predicting the future is VERY hard. Between, say, EV's and safer nuclear and perhaps safe hot fusion within the next 50 years, society might do rather well, despite using far less fossil fuels.
For example, if 99% of the energy supplied is green and quite safe, that would help quite a bit.
Or if an information intensive society is fine with traveling far less, for shopping, entertainment, etc, but doesn't feel deprived by that. If our communications devices and the grids are clean and reliable, our NEEDS could be far less, if people can stop the insane need to pile up endless assets (like giant houses, multiple cars, and filling their huge garage, attic, basement, etc. with consumer goods they rarely even look at).
OTOH, if a huge proportion of the third world moves to a middle class first world lifestyle and the population continues to grow a lot, we could be MUCH worse off by the time fossil fuels truly become relatively scarce.
I'm not smart enough to predict things like commodity or stock prices next week or next year (same as 99.99+% of people, except I freely admit it). Given that, I don't have the hubris to think I can predict the future decades or centuries from now, especially with ANY level of detail.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.