[Revi]

It looks like that energy constrained future may start as soon as next year and the year after. The projections are that Bakken will peak and start to diminish some time around 2015-2016. If it does peak and tank, so will world oil production. Of course there is still Eagle Ford and Marcellus, but world oil production without our Fracked oil peaked in 2011. We are floating on a thin veneer of oil, and that may prove to be short lived.

I know people have been calling the timing of the peak and downslope for a long time, but this time it may be for real.

Maybe...

[KaiserJeep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mesuge', 'K')aiser, are your aware of the simple fact, that the german passivehaus is basically the posterchild of hitech contraption, not that desirable for the longterm, perhaps even midterm outlook we face. Well, you can replace the oem air recuperation unit by diy version of lower efficiency, but you certainly can't locally replace the little computers and sensors, tiny electric motors and pumps, double-triple glazed gas filled windows, and most importantely all these vapour barrier fabrics around, bellow and on top of the house..

Certainly you can bet on the rosy future scenario that no repairs or damage will occur in say next 2-4decades, and or that some pocket of industrial countries overseas will still be able to produce these spare/replacement materials and ship them safely into your place somewhere in the heartland if necessary.

It's up to you, I'd not go that route, unless being very rich, i.e. "always" able to relocate and buy new properties willy nilly.

Sorry, there is no free lunch, that's not how this universe works, and the human society due to its short attention span can only provide illusions about that.

[Revi]

Here's where my guess that the Bakken is going to peak next year came from:

http://peakoil.com/production/bakken-ti ... -forecasts

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'H')ere's where my guess that the Bakken is going to peak next year came from:

http://peakoil.com/production/bakken-ti ... -forecasts

[KaiserJeep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'K')J, I see no mention of heat recovery ventilation, the intricacies of balancing heat, CO2/O2, and especially humidity in a closed environment. This from the New York Times 2013/08/15
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')o make things more complicated, no two passive houses are likely to be built to exactly the same specifications. Thousands of variables, including the architectural design, the size of the house, how many people will live there, and longitude and latitude, are taken into consideration by the sophisticated software created by Dr. Feist and his Passivhaus Institute in Darmstadt, Germany.

The first time Mr. Freas’s design team tried the computer modeling, it took them 100 hours. Now they have it down to 6.

[vtsnowedin]

KJ:

If you have a reader in the family as you do it is easier to compute the books by the cord (128 cu. ft,) The little paperbacks take up a lot less space and weigh less then the hard copy first editions. If you have to burn them for heat in an emergency the oversize coffee table books return the best heat per volume.

[vtsnowedin]

KJ wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat I need in addition to the energy goal is a house with a more conventional appearance, that will house all my wife's clothing and shoes, her Nantucket Lightship Basket collection, her Grandmother's antique furniture, and her roughly 120' of cookbooks alone, not to mention another 200' of assorted books from both of us: IOW, a room full of bookshelves, a library. We also need storage for her extensive collection of Chrismas decorations. We have decided on a home of roughly 2000 square feet, for the two of us, plus occasional guests. Current thinking is three bedroom, three bathroom, with an open floorplan in the public spaces. We want a complete basement for a mechanical room, laundry, and extra pantry space. We need a detached 3-car garage with a workshop space and an insulated second floor with a bathroom, that will initially be built out as a woodworking shop for me, and later finished out as a 1-bedroom, 1-bath apartment for a healthcare provider for the elderly, because this is our retirement home.

[KaiserJeep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'S')o KJ, how does the house deal with respiration, CO2/O2 exchange, and humidity transport? I saw no answer to my concern. I see nothing in your response in that regard.

[Mesuge]

It's just another sad story of a day dreamer who thinks he even needs to transfer/fill new "end of BAU times" house full of junk again. Magic house which is indeed hitec in function but on the other hand not at all. Or to put it more politely KJ has not apparently even fully entered the bargaining stage (3) on Kübler-Ross scale, it's a long way to..

[KaiserJeep]

So if any of YOU have an answer for when say a tenfold cost increase for energy has occurred, then lay it out. I have one, and I'm prepared to implement and tweak it to near perfection.

Keep in mind that I AM NOT a believer in the fall of civilization. Knowledge is never lost, and civilization does not regress. Many of you carry around smartphones and tablets, each comprises more computing power than existed when I was born. A sub-$100 tablet is a powerful, versatile computer. It is capable of acting as a wifi-connected, whole house remote, and such applications have gone through multiple versions.

If you are criticizing my choices, then think of your own. Think of harvesting wood for cooking and space heat, without chainsaws, log splitters other than a simple wedge, or gasoline powered trucks. Think about carrying wood, and then hauling wood ashes, and dealing with them. I have lived in both wood heated homes, and those with furnaces, and would not wish to rely on wood. I remember the misery when my GrandMother had to fire up her woodstove in the midst of a humid Arkansas Summer. I remember some of their elderly neighbors who perished because they became too feeble to survive in a backcountry environment, and had no local relatives.

I expect to have to continuously tweak and revise hardware and software. I have had to watch generations of my computer designs go obsolete. Change is a technological constant. You either keep up, or you become the victim of someone who does. Any of you know old people who have been victimized by scam artists?

In case you are unfamiliar with it, read up on the NEST family of self-programming thermostats. You need not fear technology.

pstarr, every one of those quotes is consistent and none contradict the others. I'm not sure whether you lack reading comprehension, or just are careless.

[Newfie]

Aspera,

I like your attitude. I see you are a new poster, heres hoping you keep this fresh attitude.

I started cutting back on work a few years ago. I now work 24 hours a week. I'll retire fully dec. 2015.

We live in centere city Philadelphia. No transition town or community efforts here. Lots of "cliff dwellers" (condos) with 100% dependency on the various systems. Our family is decidedly NOT the Brady bunch, and that makes thinngs tough.

Our plan is somewhat unique. Because I know not when the crash may occur I've decided to run with the current system but to have a back up plan. We have a live aboard sailboat. If we have a fast crash, we get on and go to our cabin in newfoundland where I have family. Otherwise it will be our retirement home. We can move around, move to where it is warm, produce our own electricity. I don't have a water maker, yet. But the rain is free.

Fool proof? No. But flexible.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The “silly” demand coming for the earth’s resources. A forecast this month showed the world might need 124 percent more energy in 2100, raising questions over where the capacity will come from. Dr. Euan Mearns, writing on the Energy Matters blog, looked at the expected increase in population and per capita energy consumption between 2015 and the end of this century, and concluded annual demand could top 29.5 billion tonnes of oil equivalent (TOE). This is roughly equal to 343 petawatt-hours, or around 54 times the amount of all the renewable energy produced in the world in 2017, based on International Energy Agency data. The forecast figure reflects a United Nations medium population growth prediction which would see 11.2 billion people inhabiting the planet by 2100. Per capita energy consumption, meanwhile, is expected to grow in a linear fashion to 2.6 TOE per person a

[Tanada]

For decades now I have expected our civilization to hit peak resources, experience a deep population crash as industrial farming is disrupted and end up looking like the pictures at this urban exploration photo set,
https://www.exutopia.com/wmds-in-the-florida-keys-the-abandoned-nike-missile-site-hm-40/

However we are not fully committed to this doom and gloom future and I keep hoping we will mitigate it to at least some degree. Unfortunately the longer the foot dragging goes on and less reason for optimism I can find.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'F')or decades now ...

[jato0072]

Peak Oil or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Decline.

It is good to see some old names from over a decade ago! Can an admin PM me and get me back on my old account "jato"? I was unable to recover it so I made this new account.

[jedrider]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'F')or decades now ...

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato0072', 'P')eak Oil or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Decline.

It is good to see some old names from over a decade ago! Can an admin PM me and get me back on my old account "jato"? I was unable to recover it so I made this new account.