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General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Pops » Sat 10 Jul 2021, 21:01:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'A')lternatives to conventional are more expensive to produce.

The cheapest, non-OPEC new oil is $43+ bbl breakeven per Rystad,


We've talked about how Rystad does what they do before. Feel free to note the total size of the resource they are discussing as well as cost, and then comprehend that this number is far lower than any comprehensive view of long chain hydrocarbon resources. You are aware that Rystad does NOT incorporate the technical information available in the old PetroConsultants database, right? Have you ever watched one of their presentations? I use their near term information extensively, as they watch some portions of the market like a hawk that I just don't have time for (they are hell on wheels with current trends in the Canadian tar sand sector, for example).

I can only report what I find in the wild. I actually was surprised at how far the cost has fallen for deepwater. In fact, they forecast a breakeven for 100mmbd of "liquids" at only $50bbl in 2026—they had calculated it to be $90 back in 2014—a pretty huge change.

I did read a report by a couple of Petroconsultant guys back in '98 in SciAm ;^)
One of the things they mentioned was the wide range of estimates put out by all manner of entities and their dubious ties to reality. And the US is not different, you'll remember the Monterey Shale oopsie by the USGS. Or the EIA who in 2017 said Gahwar had been producing 6mmbd since Jesus was a pup, but oopsie, they had no clue either... In 2019 Aramco's own prospectus said The King could only do 3.8mmbd max—as if you can start believing them now, LOL

It could very well be that there are enough fossils accessible at a low price to turn this planet into a twin of Mars. On the other hand, I would not be surprised if Gahwar actually watered out 5 years ago and the "bell shaped" curve turns into a shark fin and the price curve goes exponential —oopsie. It is only in some Goldilocks zone, before oil price goes stratospheric where fear of broiling in our skins goads us into a drastic transition away from fossils —before that very thing is what we all become.

I'm not holding my breath.
.

https://planetforlife.com/htmlfiles/End ... %20Oil.htm
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2019/4/2/ ... jor-fields
https://www.postcarbon.org/usgs-downgra ... alifornia/
https://www.usgs.gov/news/usgs-estimate ... mation-san
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 10 Jul 2021, 23:09:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'A')lternatives to conventional are more expensive to produce.

The cheapest, non-OPEC new oil is $43+ bbl breakeven per Rystad,


We've talked about how Rystad does what they do before. /quote]
I can only report what I find in the wild.


Correct. Nothing wrong with reaching for the information you've got, or me reaching for what I've got.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', ' ')I did read a report by a couple of Petroconsultant guys back in '98 in SciAm ;^)
One of the things they mentioned was the wide range of estimates put out by all manner of entities and their dubious ties to reality.


Indeed. And now we know that they didn't know squat. Those that did and dared to mention it among the true believers 15 years ago, were banned from all sorts of online venues with enthusiasm. 8)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')And the US is not different, you'll remember the Monterey Shale oopsie by the USGS. Or the EIA who in 2017 said Gahwar had been producing 6mmbd since Jesus was a pup, but oopsie, they had no clue either... In 2019 Aramco's own prospectus said The King could only do 3.8mmbd max—as if you can start believing them now, LOL


LOL indeed. Remember when, from all those estimates made during the heyday of peak oil, the only one not discredited by the reality of time and volumes was the one from the EIA? Their estimate at 2037 is still out there. Pretty clever those folks, knowing more than the amateur hour that was peak oil "experts" back then. Those Scientific American guys? Mostly in hiding. I recall the Monterey shale debacle as well. The EIA hired a contractor, who put out a terrible number. Upon consulting experts, the EIA modified those resources into oblivion. And then was backed up by the USGS in having done so. I don't recall the EIA claiming Ghawar was producing at full volume in 2017, do you have a reference? As far as believing Saudi Arabia or EIA, heck, how about the people that said Ghawar would be empty in the year 2000? Or Simmons, who said that when Ghawar peaked, so would the world? Of course, why would anyone ask an accountant oil questions and expect an informed answer, right? :)

Those were the days. You figure that the LATOCians and Powerswitchers and Wolf At The Door Brits, and imploded ASPO and imploded TOD and all the others are still out there, just waiting to recycle the ideas that failed last time, or did they go out and learn?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')It could very well be that there are enough fossils accessible at a low price to turn this planet into a twin of Mars. On the other hand, I would not be surprised if Gahwar actually watered out 5 years ago and the "bell shaped" curve turns into a shark fin and the price curve goes exponential —oopsie


The good news about shark fins is they aren't a natural decline profile. I figure the guy who came up with that one never produced an oil field under primary or secondary recovery before. No surprise there, how many of these bad peak oil ideas ever came from petroleum engineers? The geologists seem to be involved all over the place, and then do horrible maths.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')I'm not holding my breath
.

Me neither. The next price spike? The Happy McPeaksters are going to pour outta the woodwork. Again. I'm hoping it is before I retire so every time they rinse, recycle and repeat I've got a footnote ready for a paper or book about it.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Pops » Sun 11 Jul 2021, 08:46:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'T')hose that did and dared to mention it among the true believers 15 years ago, were banned from all sorts of online venues with enthusiasm. 8)

Yeah, I got the impression you feel mistreated by peakers back when and are here exacting revenge. Seems like grudge matches are common sport nowadays.

Back when, my cautious WAG was a peak in the teens and a plateau 'till sometime in the twenties. Turned out the important peak, that of conventional oil production, came and went in 2006 (IEA WEO 2010) pretty well on schedule. I kinda thought TPTB would try to extend the party as far as possible, and the global debt shows that to be the case. Certainly throwing cheap money at frackers has extended the fracas, just as it has the market exuberance.


That bit about EIA and Gahwar came from this
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2019/4/2/ ... jor-fields
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 11 Jul 2021, 10:46:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'T')hose that did and dared to mention it among the true believers 15 years ago, were banned from all sorts of online venues with enthusiasm. 8)

Yeah, I got the impression you feel mistreated by peakers back when and are here exacting revenge. Seems like grudge matches are common sport nowadays.


On occasion, perhaps I reveal too much. :) No hard feelings, but I reserve the right to gloat on occasion.

Also, and perhaps more interestingly, it changed the trajectory of my professional development and career.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops']
Back when, my cautious WAG was a peak in the teens and a plateau 'till sometime in the twenties. Turned out the important peak, that of conventional oil production, came and went in 2006 (IEA WEO 2010) pretty well on schedule. I kinda thought TPTB would try to extend the party as far as possible, and the global debt shows that to be the case. Certainly throwing cheap money at frackers has extended the fracas, just as it has the market exuberance.
[/quote]

Come on Pops..you can say it...turns out Sarah "I can see Russia from my house!" Palin knew more about how to get more oil production than every peaker known to mankind pre-2010.

[quote="Pops', '
')That bit about EIA and Gahwar came from this
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2019/4/2/ ... jor-fields


Thanks. Unfortunately, the article just makes the claim the EIA said so, it doesn't provide a quote or link to where they actually said so. Sort of like claiming the EIA claims the Monterey has 15 billion in it when it was a contractors report, sure, the info might be most likely associated with the EIA somewhere, but finding it can be a bear, assuming it is even true. And oftentimes when these mentions are made, they skip the caveats that come with it, the Monterey being the same kind of example. Whereas the EIA 2037 peak oil claim, folks can link to that one directly.
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Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Tuike » Sun 18 Jul 2021, 15:14:13

OPEC and allies target full end to oil production cuts by September 2022, increase supply limits as prices climb -cnbc
Coordinated increases in oil supply from the group, known as OPEC+, will begin in August, OPEC announced in a statement. Overall production will increase by 400,000 barrels per day on a monthly basis from that point onward. The International Energy Agency estimates a 1.5 million barrel per day shortfall for the second half of this year, indicating a tight market despite the gradual OPEC supply boost.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby mustang19 » Sun 18 Jul 2021, 18:26:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tuike', '[')url=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/18/opec-allies-agree-to-fully-end-oil-production-cuts-by-september-2022.html]OPEC and allies target full end to oil production cuts by September 2022, increase supply limits as prices climb -cnbc[/url]
Coordinated increases in oil supply from the group, known as OPEC+, will begin in August, OPEC announced in a statement. Overall production will increase by 400,000 barrels per day on a monthly basis from that point onward. The International Energy Agency estimates a 1.5 million barrel per day shortfall for the second half of this year, indicating a tight market despite the gradual OPEC supply boost.


So, that's about 0.4% global production a month, and half depends depends on Iraq (4m to 4.6 by April) and perhaps a similar amount from Iran. Neither of these are growing exports.

It's really a test of whether Saudi can grow, and it may not, given the collapse of rig counts and base decline of 8% on ghawar.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 25 Jul 2021, 22:26:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tuike', '[')url=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/18/opec-allies-agree-to-fully-end-oil-production-cuts-by-september-2022.html]OPEC and allies target full end to oil production cuts by September 2022, increase supply limits as prices climb -cnbc[/url]
Coordinated increases in oil supply from the group, known as OPEC+, will begin in August, OPEC announced in a statement. Overall production will increase by 400,000 barrels per day on a monthly basis from that point onward. The International Energy Agency estimates a 1.5 million barrel per day shortfall for the second half of this year, indicating a tight market despite the gradual OPEC supply boost.


So, that's about 0.4% global production a month, and half depends depends on Iraq (4m to 4.6 by April) and perhaps a similar amount from Iran. Neither of these are growing exports.

It's really a test of whether Saudi can grow, and it may not, given the collapse of rig counts and base decline of 8% on ghawar.
Have a little faith in the power of the market. If the demand is there the producers will move heaven and earth to meet that demand. I can't predict which producer will meet the demand but I am very sure one of them will.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby mustang19 » Sun 25 Jul 2021, 22:36:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tuike', '[')url=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/18/opec-allies-agree-to-fully-end-oil-production-cuts-by-september-2022.html]OPEC and allies target full end to oil production cuts by September 2022, increase supply limits as prices climb -cnbc[/url]
Coordinated increases in oil supply from the group, known as OPEC+, will begin in August, OPEC announced in a statement. Overall production will increase by 400,000 barrels per day on a monthly basis from that point onward. The International Energy Agency estimates a 1.5 million barrel per day shortfall for the second half of this year, indicating a tight market despite the gradual OPEC supply boost.


So, that's about 0.4% global production a month, and half depends depends on Iraq (4m to 4.6 by April) and perhaps a similar amount from Iran. Neither of these are growing exports.

It's really a test of whether Saudi can grow, and it may not, given the collapse of rig counts and base decline of 8% on ghawar.
Have a little faith in the power of the market. If the demand is there the producers will move heaven and earth to meet that demand. I can't predict which producer will meet the demand but I am very sure one of them will.


Saudi production increased when prices went negative.

OPEC cutting is contributing to the price increase liberal. Oil price is entirely determined by monetary policy and inventory, and inventory is low, which all seven times 73, 75, 80, 90, 2000, 08 and 15 we have data for, caused a year of price growth and crash like we are seeing.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 26 Jul 2021, 00:19:26

KSA is a bit of an outlier. As oil is the only thing they have to sell if the price drops their only option is to sell more cheap barrels to pay their current bills.
The rest of the producing world? not so much.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby mustang19 » Mon 26 Jul 2021, 00:32:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'K')SA is a bit of an outlier. As oil is the only thing they have to sell if the price drops their only option is to sell more cheap barrels to pay their current bills.
The rest of the producing world? not so much.


That doesn't matter. All that matters is the hubbert curve which everyone is following. At the moment it's down.

Also the-world-outside-america-has-been-in-peak-oil-since-2005-t78054.html
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 21 Aug 2022, 10:20:28

Canadian Overseas Petroleum Limited (COPL) has revealed that it has received an independent resource report confirming its deep oil discovery on its affiliate COPL America Inc’s lands in Converse and Natrona counties in Wyoming.

Link
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Wed 31 May 2023, 18:13:29

Today's National Post in Canada had an article ridiculing Peak Oil. I guess National Post subscribers aren't too smart (well other than myself obviously!) because the most upvoted comment in the epaper claims that oil is continually being created via an abiotic process. Anyone suggesting that peak oil is inevitable at some point due to geological limits on how much oil there is that can be extracted economically gets downvoted. Note that the following link doesn't show the same comments as the epaper version does. https://financialpost.com/opinion/junk- ... P_Comments
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 31 May 2023, 19:09:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yellowcanoe', ' ')Anyone suggesting that peak oil is inevitable at some point due to geological limits on how much oil there is that can be extracted economically gets downvoted.


Sound sort of like the exact opposite of what was happening at peak oil sites like this one way back when. Anyone suggesting that geologic limits hadn't been reached and the hubbub of 20 years ago was just geologic, engineering and engineering ignorance was erased, banned, cancelled, whatever.

Funny, the ebb and flow of this topic over the decades. And now? The most recent peak oil happened like 5 years ago and hasn't bothered price, availability, or increased the popularity of peak oil websites.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby ralfy » Wed 31 May 2023, 21:02:55

Oil production per capita peaked back in 1979. That's more logical than oil production per se as a growing population needs that oil.

Peak oil demand based on the belief that EVs will be used makes no sense as oil is needed to make and use EVs, among others.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 01 Jun 2023, 10:05:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'O')il production per capita peaked back in 1979.

That isn't peak oil either. What you are referring to is called "increasing efficiency".
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
') That's more logical than oil production per se as a growing population needs that oil.

This is LATOC logic. Here are the prophets words.
Image
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')Peak oil demand based on the belief that EVs will be used makes no sense as oil is needed to make and use EVs, among others.

Peak oil demand is based on the PREMISE that as prices of some activities or commodities increase, this will close the gap on more expensive ones until they are in direct competition. And any further increase in demand then becomes divided among multiple solutions/activities/commodities. It is also how the development of oil and gas works as well, and one of the key drivers of why the likes of Matt Savinar...and his "groupies" (his words, not mine) were so wrong about oil production.

You once had a huge list of peak oil references "proving" peak oil, back in the heyday of the religious fervor around the topic. Would you care to provide it to the group that we can learn from all the mistakes contained therein, so as not to be suckered and made to look like the same fools who swallowed the bait hook, line and sinker last time(s)?
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Tuike » Sun 04 Jun 2023, 05:56:06

OPEC Excludes Bloomberg, Reuters and WSJ Reporters From Meeting -po.com
An information blackout will surely stimulate the imagination of all kinds of theorists.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 04 Jun 2023, 08:27:15

I can only assume it is a snub at the ownership. Perhaps SA was upset about Kashogi reporting or some such thing.

I doubt it will limit reporting with other outlets attending.

Just my 2¢.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 04 Jun 2023, 14:13:13

OPEC knows the western media is a twisted snake and doesn't want to give them anything they can spin into lies I assume. Also OPEC is transitioning into the BRICS block, a direct opposition to the Western Block nations. I wonder if Pravda was invited :lol:
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby mididoctors » Sun 04 Jun 2023, 15:06:29

Peak oil happened. This is the world we are in now. The obviousness of it was not something that overwhelmed the news cycle. I don't think the leaders of our planet are on top of this tbh

Climate change is getting traction ... You only have to look out the bloody window.

Who's invested in domestic solar ?
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby mididoctors » Sun 04 Jun 2023, 15:09:29

I haven't posted here for a long time . You get the feeling things are sliding?
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