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New wolfcamp data

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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby mustang19 » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 17:32:47

https://i.ibb.co/zx2p84N/036-D7590-D188 ... 3-FBB2.jpg

The total light oil projection perfectly captures the flat production which is about to decline.
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 19:32:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mustang19', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', ' ')If there was data going back to 1900 I would use it.


No you wouldn't. See paragraph above as to why. And the data for the Wolfcamp goes back into the 1950's, at least. Schmuck.


Well show me it then. Eia goes back to 2000.


Sure. Buy yourself a license like the rest of us. And then I'll explain how to use it so you won't look like an amateur. A half witted one at that.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 19:41:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', 'h')ttps://file.io/YHKR13biriic

Excel

https://i.ibb.co/sV6msYY/31-AED132-2659 ... 9-EC90.jpg

Hubbert curve

Permian has another 500k to gain by aug 2022 then it's screwed.


I hate to ask this of a troll, but what kind of equation did you use to create a decline profile that doesn't match any physics based reservoir dynamics I have ever seen or heard of? Certainly that isn't even a Hubbert curve, as he had tails that generally could be imitated by exponential decline, but not accelerating ones. But that isn't what you did, and the inflection point you threw in there at the end, was that just to generate laughter from the professionals, or did you figure everyone would spot that as a dead giveaway for the same kind of person who was laughed off the internet for the ETP claptrap?

Your first file by the way. whatever it is, doesn't open.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 19:44:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', 'h')ttps://i.ibb.co/zx2p84N/036-D7590-D188-4-B9-D-BD43-1-B188-E73-FBB2.jpg

The total light oil projection perfectly captures the flat production which is about to decline.


And you generated this using the EIA system finally? Or are you still making up silly declines because you can't figure out open source software?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby mustang19 » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 19:46:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', 'h')ttps://file.io/YHKR13biriic

Excel

https://i.ibb.co/sV6msYY/31-AED132-2659 ... 9-EC90.jpg

Hubbert curve

Permian has another 500k to gain by aug 2022 then it's screwed.


I hate to ask this of a troll, but what kind of equation did you use to create a decline profile that doesn't match any physics based reservoir dynamics I have ever seen or heard of? Certainly that isn't even a Hubbert curve, as he had tails that generally could be imitated by exponential decline, but not accelerating ones. But that isn't what you did, and the inflection point you threw in there at the end, was that just to generate laughter from the professionals, or did you figure everyone would spot that as a dead giveaway for the same kind of person who was laughed off the internet for the ETP claptrap?

Your first file by the way. whatever it is, doesn't open.


The files are broke.

That graph is the sum of all the other ones.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/1EEHi1BJ ... pe=msexcel
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby mustang19 » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 19:49:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', 'h')ttps://i.ibb.co/zx2p84N/036-D7590-D188-4-B9-D-BD43-1-B188-E73-FBB2.jpg

The total light oil projection perfectly captures the flat production which is about to decline.


And you generated this using the EIA system finally? Or are you still making up silly declines because you can't figure out open source software?


The eia doesn't even have the ability to predict anything, it's model is a fixed technology growth rate which slows over time and that's it.

Enverus is some Internet thing founded a few years ago it doesn't have anything
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 20:01:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '
')The eia doesn't even have the ability to predict anything, it's model is a fixed technology growth rate which slows over time and that's it.


Can you point us to the pieces in the code where the model demonstrates this? And while I agree with you that there are no facts in the future, the EIA has a system that can balance all the factors against price to deliver an answer. Even if that answer isn't how the future plays out.

You, a child scribbling with crayons, claiming to be a computer programmer.....can't figure out how to use their computer program?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '
')Enverus is some Internet thing founded a few years ago it doesn't have anything


It has Wolfcamp oil (and gas) production in the Permian basin going back to the 1950's. Schmuck.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby mustang19 » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 20:04:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '
')The eia doesn't even have the ability to predict anything, it's model is a fixed technology growth rate which slows over time and that's it.


Can you point us to the pieces in the code where the model demonstrates this? And while I agree with you that there are no facts in the future, the EIA has a system that can balance all the factors against price to deliver an answer. Even if that answer isn't how the future plays out.

You, a child scribbling with crayons, claiming to be a computer programmer.....can't figure out how to use their computer program?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '
')Enverus is some Internet thing founded a few years ago it doesn't have anything


It has Wolfcamp oil (and gas) production in the Permian basin going back to the 1950's. Schmuck.


It's their documentation.

If I have $1000 a month to throw away I would definitely get enverus
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 20:22:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '
')If I have $1000 a month to throw away I would definitely get enverus


It doesn't matter. You wouldn't know how to use it. You can't figure out how to number charts in a publication in sequential order, goodness only knows how many silly ways you would butcher the most basic data analytics.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby mustang19 » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 20:26:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '
')If I have $1000 a month to throw away I would definitely get enverus


It doesn't matter. You wouldn't know how to use it. You can't figure out how to number charts in a publication in sequential order, goodness only knows how many silly ways you would butcher the most basic data analytics.


Have I even been wrong? Oil production peaked in 2020, its going nowhere, all my predictions have been right so far.
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 20:56:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '
')Have I even been wrong?

Yes. The price of oil didn't average $0/bbl in 2019.

And this:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil » Sat 23 Jul 2005, 19:10:25', '
')42? The price of a gallon of gas in 2012!


And don't make me go review any more of that ETP drivel to find more. Bad enough you can't number charts sequentially in your foundation document, but you faith based believers make my skin crawl.

"Knowledge without numbers is of a meager and unsatisfactory kind. Lord Kelvin"
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby mustang19 » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 21:05:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '
')Have I even been wrong?

Yes. The price of oil didn't average $0/bbl in 2019.

And this:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil » Sat 23 Jul 2005, 19:10:25', '
')42? The price of a gallon of gas in 2012!


And don't make me go review any more of that ETP drivel to find more. Bad enough you can't number charts sequentially in your foundation document, but you faith based believers make my skin crawl.

"Knowledge without numbers is of a meager and unsatisfactory kind. Lord Kelvin"


I used a paper from 2009 to predict collapse in 2022.

You of course can't read but it was in the last thread.
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 21:17:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '
')I used a paper from 2009 to predict collapse in 2022.


Give me a reference for where it was published and I'll give it a once over.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby mustang19 » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 21:47:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '
')I used a paper from 2009 to predict collapse in 2022.


Give me a reference for where it was published and I'll give it a once over.


I'm not repeating myself, it's in the old thread.
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 23:57:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '
')I used a paper from 2009 to predict collapse in 2022.


Give me a reference for where it was published and I'll give it a once over.


I'm not repeating myself, it's in the old thread.


You repeat yourself 2 out of every 3 posts of drivel.

And I didn't say I wanted some random childish claims you made here, or more of your high school level excel graphing skills. I said tell me where it was published. Like I have any intention of going through your nearly incoherent technical writing again, before it was reviewed somewhere proper and you at least numbered the graphs correctly.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby mustang19 » Tue 29 Jun 2021, 00:30:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '
')I used a paper from 2009 to predict collapse in 2022.


Give me a reference for where it was published and I'll give it a once over.


I'm not repeating myself, it's in the old thread.


You repeat yourself 2 out of every 3 posts of drivel.

And I didn't say I wanted some random childish claims you made here, or more of your high school level excel graphing skills. I said tell me where it was published. Like I have any intention of going through your nearly incoherent technical writing again, before it was reviewed somewhere proper and you at least numbered the graphs correctly.


I got everything right, production is falling, there's no room for you to troll. It's just waiting the next 3 years of tedium.
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 29 Jun 2021, 12:23:22

mustang - "Oil production peaked in 2020, its going nowhere"

I've gotten a tad lost in this debate. Exactly what production peaked in 2020? Thanks in advance.
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby mustang19 » Tue 29 Jun 2021, 13:09:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'm')ustang - "Oil production peaked in 2020, its going nowhere"

I've gotten a tad lost in this debate. Exactly what production peaked in 2020? Thanks in advance.


US LTO

The global peak was 2019 or 18.
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 29 Jun 2021, 17:18:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '
')I got everything right, production is falling, there's no room for you to troll. It's just waiting the next 3 years of tedium.


Fine. Let me know where it was published. That way I know it wasn't like the shoddy work that got laughed out of review last time.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby mustang19 » Wed 30 Jun 2021, 12:23:10

Dennis is getting destroyed on his blog. Fortunately he has the sport to not delete the replies.
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