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New wolfcamp data

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New wolfcamp data

Unread postby mustang19 » Sun 27 Jun 2021, 20:15:20

https://i.ibb.co/HrnVgJj/DE4-A4267-6077 ... 7665-D.jpg

Eia released new and more generous wolfcamp definition.

Matters little, every other field is collapsing.

Excel
https://file.io/8NrWB2JxZZet
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 27 Jun 2021, 21:16:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', 'h')ttps://i.ibb.co/HrnVgJj/DE4-A4267-6077-4-BB4-9-A4-C-95-C7-B647665-D.jpg

Eia released new and more generous wolfcamp definition.


The link isn't to that, it appears to be someone who continues to use bell shaped curves, and in the case of the graphic, demonstrates they still don't work.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '
')Matters little, every other field is collapsing.


The Wolfcamp isn't a field, and the Eagleford region, and the Bakken, are slightly declining. This is happening right now for 2 reasons, 1) what appears to be a industry wide effort to restrain their urge to spend capital, and 2) current oil production, drilled to be profitable during $45-$50/bbl days, is absolutely raining cash above and beyond that.

You could have used your retired time during Covid to learn something, and not come back and just say more stupid crap.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby mustang19 » Sun 27 Jun 2021, 21:41:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', 'h')ttps://i.ibb.co/HrnVgJj/DE4-A4267-6077-4-BB4-9-A4-C-95-C7-B647665-D.jpg

Eia released new and more generous wolfcamp definition.


The link isn't to that, it appears to be someone who continues to use bell shaped curves, and in the case of the graphic, demonstrates they still don't work.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '
')Matters little, every other field is collapsing.


The Wolfcamp isn't a field, and the Eagleford region, and the Bakken, are slightly declining. This is happening right now for 2 reasons, 1) what appears to be a industry wide effort to restrain their urge to spend capital, and 2) current oil production, drilled to be profitable during $45-$50/bbl days, is absolutely raining cash above and beyond that.

You could have used your retired time during Covid to learn something, and not come back and just say more stupid crap.


Bakken and the others have been very obviously declining since 2019.

My first curve was wrong because the eia data was wrong. They beefed up wolfcamp and raised production 50% and gave it a flatter curve and this extended it two years.

Overall production has been flat because the tepid Permian growth perfectly cancels out decline everywhere else.
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 27 Jun 2021, 21:50:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '
')Bakken and the others have been very obviously declining since 2019.


Sure. I said that. Parrot much? Because for those who aren't parrots, declining slightly isn't "collapsing".

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '
')My first curve was wrong because the eia data was wrong. They beefed up wolfcamp and raised production 50% and gave it a flatter curve and this extended it two years.


So the idiot making bell shaped curves that don't fit data was you. Not a surprise.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '
')Overall production has been flat because the tepid Permian growth perfectly cancels out decline everywhere else.


Overall production has been flat because of restrained capital expenditures, rigs at half their past normal level, and companies happily accepting the rain of cash on them from current prices. Told you that already too. Anything else you want to claim that demonstrates you didn't use your retiree time to learn anything, including reading what others have pointed out?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby mustang19 » Sun 27 Jun 2021, 21:51:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '
')Bakken and the others have been very obviously declining since 2019.


Sure. I said that. Parrot much? Because for those who aren't parrots, declining slightly isn't "collapsing".

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '
')My first curve was wrong because the eia data was wrong. They beefed up wolfcamp and raised production 50% and gave it a flatter curve and this extended it two years.


So the idiot making bell shaped curves that don't fit data was you. Not a surprise.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '
')Overall production has been flat because the tepid Permian growth perfectly cancels out decline everywhere else.


Overall production has been flat because of restrained capital expenditures, rigs at half their past normal level, and companies happily accepting the rain of cash on them from current prices. Told you that already too. Anything else you want to claim that demonstrates you didn't use your retiree time to learn anything, including reading what others have pointed out?


That's totally wrong, they are spamming rigs and production is still falling. There is no capital discipline, they are still retarded children, and production is falling.
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 12:52:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mustang19 aka Short', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')Overall production has been flat because of restrained capital expenditures, rigs at half their past normal level, and companies happily accepting the rain of cash on them from current prices. Told you that already too. Anything else you want to claim that demonstrates you didn't use your retiree time to learn anything, including reading what others have pointed out?


That's totally wrong, they are spamming rigs and production is still falling. There is no capital discipline, they are still retarded children, and production is falling.


Yeah, the only spamming going on is your posting. And while you might be so ignorant as to not be able to understand a chart or read the data behind it showing increasing US oil production, others aren't senile trolls.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 13:09:14

I only started working in the oil patch 46 years ago. But "spamming rigs"? Maybe I was out on a rig when that term was defined in a meeting. LOL.
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 13:29:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'I') only started working in the oil patch 46 years ago. But "spamming rigs"? Maybe I was out on a rig when that term was defined in a meeting. LOL.


It's just Short being stupid. Unlike your retirement, his appears to have caused him early senility.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby mustang19 » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 13:55:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mustang19 aka Short', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')Overall production has been flat because of restrained capital expenditures, rigs at half their past normal level, and companies happily accepting the rain of cash on them from current prices. Told you that already too. Anything else you want to claim that demonstrates you didn't use your retiree time to learn anything, including reading what others have pointed out?


That's totally wrong, they are spamming rigs and production is still falling. There is no capital discipline, they are still retarded children, and production is falling.


Yeah, the only spamming going on is your posting. And while you might be so ignorant as to not be able to understand a chart or read the data behind it showing increasing US oil production, others aren't senile trolls.


It's been flat at 11k for over a year....
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby mustang19 » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 14:06:44

More excels

https://file.io/tmHFyiDa3hij

Bakken

https://i.ibb.co/W28KMcx/6120-CABD-27-D ... A17375.jpg

Spraberry

https://i.ibb.co/dLxyhB6/63-F23-D90-B37 ... -F0-EC.jpg

Eagle ford

https://i.ibb.co/gvpw9Rx/EAAF3-FC7-655- ... -C9-C0.jpg

Bone spring

https://i.ibb.co/DWvDYr9/7894-B323-5-B9 ... -CA7-A.jpg
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby mustang19 » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 15:14:33

https://i.ibb.co/tz2Qqbn/90-ED4-CBD-939 ... E3-AA9.jpg
Niobara

Mississippian

https://i.ibb.co/2nLwB4z/C52-A1-B20-7-D ... 5298-B.jpg
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 15:49:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', ' ')And while you might be so ignorant as to not be able to understand a chart or read the data behind it showing increasing US oil production, others aren't senile trolls.


It's been flat at 11k for over a year....


And crashed by more than a million/day along the way...and recovered. Hence obvious growth since February, the growth between now and then most certainly not being the collapse you claimed. Funny how crashes caused by weather are so easily grown back, don't you think? Oh wait...you don't do that...sorry for implying an ability that most of us have that admitted trolls don't.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby mustang19 » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 15:50:52

https://i.ibb.co/wLzmfnm/C2835809-9844- ... 02-DB1.jpg

Austin chalk

https://i.ibb.co/TPgnYTK/35-A17-E19-529 ... 9-B5-D.jpg

Woodford
Last edited by mustang19 on Mon 28 Jun 2021, 15:56:05, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 15:53:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', 'M')ore excels

https://file.io/tmHFyiDa3hij
https://i.ibb.co/W28KMcx/6120-CABD-27-D ... A17375.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/dLxyhB6/63-F23-D90-B37 ... -F0-EC.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/gvpw9Rx/EAAF3-FC7-655- ... -C9-C0.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/DWvDYr9/7894-B323-5-B9 ... -CA7-A.jpg

No, not Excels, but images. And someone seems to be trying to pollute data with yet another incompetent random extrapolation. Did you finish downloading the open source EIA software so you could do it right? Or is computer stuff beyond a...computer...person?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby mustang19 » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 16:37:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', 'M')ore excels

https://file.io/tmHFyiDa3hij
https://i.ibb.co/W28KMcx/6120-CABD-27-D ... A17375.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/dLxyhB6/63-F23-D90-B37 ... -F0-EC.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/gvpw9Rx/EAAF3-FC7-655- ... -C9-C0.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/DWvDYr9/7894-B323-5-B9 ... -CA7-A.jpg

No, not Excels, but images. And someone seems to be trying to pollute data with yet another incompetent random extrapolation. Did you finish downloading the open source EIA software so you could do it right? Or is computer stuff beyond a...computer...person?


You must be blind to not see the obvious hubbert curve wolfcamp is following.
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 16:50:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '
')You must be blind to not see the obvious hubbert curve wolfcamp is following.


You must be an idiot to think a discredited curve fitting routine fits anything other than by blind chance. Did they not teach you basic data analytic skills in 'puter schule? Or is it 2nd grader critical thinking skills you are lacking?

Where is the Wolfcamp production pre-2000? Your graph doesn't include a Y-axis annotation, so we don't know if it is molecules or billion barrels. The Wolfcamp was making about 30,000+ bbl/day in the last century, for 40 years. I wonder why someone would ignore data while making shitty graphs to try and trying to avoid even telling the reader how much volume we are talking about? An incompetent one? Can you even see why this kind of shoddy work would get you laughed out of technical review? You can't even number graphs in your paper in order!
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby mustang19 » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 17:00:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '
')You must be blind to not see the obvious hubbert curve wolfcamp is following.


You must be an idiot to think a discredited curve fitting routine fits anything other than by blind chance. Did they not teach you basic data analytic skills in 'puter schule? Or is it 2nd grader critical thinking skills you are lacking?

Where is the Wolfcamp production pre-2000? Your graph doesn't include a Y-axis annotation, so we don't know if it is molecules or billion barrels. The Wolfcamp was making about 30,000+ bbl/day in the last century, for 40 years. I wonder why someone would ignore data while making shitty graphs to try and trying to avoid even telling the reader how much volume we are talking about? An incompetent one? Can you even see why this kind of shoddy work would get you laughed out of technical review? You can't even number graphs in your paper in order!


The curve is based on post 2018 because that's when you get stable parameters. You could pick any time I just picked the most clear.

Sure call it shoddy but it's very obviously just following a curve. If there was data going back to 1900 I would use it.
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 17:14:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '
')The curve is based on post 2018 because that's when you get stable parameters.


Christ on a crutch are you stupid. "Gee...I fit my curve to the data I want to give me the answer I want because otherwise my dumbass method discredited elsewhere won't work. Again."

I mean, I don't mind an avowed troll trolling, you know, but Short you don't have to be so flipping stupid while doing it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', ' ')If there was data going back to 1900 I would use it.


No you wouldn't. See paragraph above as to why. And the data for the Wolfcamp goes back into the 1950's, at least. Schmuck.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby mustang19 » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 17:15:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', '
')The curve is based on post 2018 because that's when you get stable parameters.


Christ on a crutch are you stupid. "Gee...I fit my curve to the data I want to give me the answer I want because otherwise my dumbass method discredited elsewhere won't work. Again."

I mean, I don't mind an avowed troll trolling, you know, but Short you don't have to be so flipping stupid while doing it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mustang19', ' ')If there was data going back to 1900 I would use it.


No you wouldn't. See paragraph above as to why. And the data for the Wolfcamp goes back into the 1950's, at least. Schmuck.


Well show me it then. Eia goes back to 2000.
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Re: New wolfcamp data

Unread postby mustang19 » Mon 28 Jun 2021, 17:26:26

https://file.io/YHKR13biriic

Excel

https://i.ibb.co/sV6msYY/31-AED132-2659 ... 9-EC90.jpg

Hubbert curve

Permian has another 500k to gain by aug 2022 then it's screwed.
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