by AdamB » Thu 17 Jun 2021, 08:57:36
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', '
')People scoffed at peak oil as a nothing-burger.
Sure. Because after it has either happened or been claimed to have happened a half dozen times in the last couple decades of just this century, folks are allowed to realize how ill informed its advocates are.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', '
')Well, we are going to be slapped hard by the massive shortfall in oil exploration investment to replace declines in existing oil fields.
Declines having been happening all along the way during all those other claimed peak oils as well and...gee...here we are pretending the same ideas will lead to the same conclusion THIS time, even when it didn't before.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', '
') No amount of Green River shale kerogen is going to fix this and nobody is even trying to process that kerogen into oil. Shell tried and gave up.
Didn't some stupid peak oilers once say that about LTO development? Oh wait, they did! Art Berman, peak oil geologist extraordinaire! What happened after he claimed that US LTO wasn't enough to make a difference? The price stayed high enough to turn the US into the world's largest oil producer using the stuff he said there wasn't much of.
As far as any other hydrocarbon resource, not being economic today, I can only say try not to be as stupid about them as economic incompetents like Art were back in 2011.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', ' ')
We are truly living in interestingly times.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
by AdamB » Fri 03 Jun 2022, 13:35:33
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meganth34', 'R')ecently, given the geopolitical situation in the world, oil prices in America are rising. But according to the law
https://lawrina.com/us-law/federal/codes/title-43/chapter-38/sec-2007/ the president has considerable influence on solving the problem of oil transportation. Do you think Biden will do something in that case?
Biden won't do any more about oil consumption or production than he will guns. What in the world makes you think politicians DO things, rathering than talking about them, feathering their nests throuogh influence, etc etc?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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by JuanP » Fri 03 Jun 2022, 13:55:29
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meganth34', 'R')ecently, given the geopolitical situation in the world, oil prices in America are rising. But according to the law
https://lawrina.com/us-law/federal/codes/title-43/chapter-38/sec-2007/ the president has considerable influence on solving the problem of oil transportation. Do you think Biden will do something in that case?
Absolutely not! Biden won't do a single thing.
"Human stupidity has no limits" JuanP
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by Plantagenet » Fri 03 Jun 2022, 20:17:28
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JuanP', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meganth34', ' ')Do you think Biden will do something ......?
Absolutely not! Biden won't do a single thing.
Juan is right again.
Biden is going to go into history as another failed president.
Its not that his speechwriters don't write nice speeches for him......and its not that Biden doesn't do a good job of reading what is on the teleprompter in front of him.
Its everything else that Biden won't do or can't do anymore.
The presidency is a full-time job. Ideally the president should not only read the occasional speech, but spend the rest of time phoning people in Congress and having them over to the White House to push and lobby for his legislation and his program.
But Biden doesn't do that.....Biden is just too old.
Biden is the worst president ever for the amount of time he spends away from the White House on vacation. Biden is spending huge amounts of time at his Delaware beach estate (bought with Chinese bribe money channeled through Hunter, no doubt) taking naps and otherwise doing nothing. And even when Biden is in the White House he isn't doing his job. Biden should be calling legislators and meeting with them, but its hard to find a legislator who has had a phone call or a meeting with Biden.
Thats why nothing gets done under Biden.
Biden sends way too much time either away on vacation or taking naps. And even when he is in the office Biden can't do much because he can't remember anything. Its hard for Biden to lobby a congressman when he forgets who he is talking to or forgets what the conversation is about.
Biden sends way too much time either away on vacation or taking naps-----and thats why its so hard getting anything done in DC while he is presidentSHEESH!!!!
Never underestimate the ability of Joe Biden to f#@% things up---Barack Obama
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by JuanP » Fri 03 Jun 2022, 22:21:57
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', 'W')orld total oil production is pretty high- not far off from the all time high of a couple years back. But the price has changed far more dramatically since then. Russia's oil seems to be getting into the market so that doesn't seem to be the main driver.
The only explanations I can think for this are:
1. the massive influx of dollars has devalued the currency oil is priced at
2. There is speculation fever that future supply will get even worse (but why?)
I agree on your first point.
As far as your second point is concerned, I believe that underinvestment in maintaining, replacing, and increasing production capacity over the last handful of years due to low prices is coming back to bite us in the butt. I believe that there is not enough spare production capacity to supply future demand. OPEC+ has supposedly agreed to increase production by around 1Mbpd in the short-term future, but I don't think they have the ability to do that. We should find out before the year is over. If I am correct in my guess, we are looking forward to years of oil supply problems, high prices and/or economic crises. We've been through these cycles many times before, as Rockman has pointed out countless times.
Thanks for that lesson, Rockman!
"Human stupidity has no limits" JuanP
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by AdamB » Fri 03 Jun 2022, 22:55:03
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', '
')2. There is speculation fever that future supply will get even worse (but why?)
Natural decline is the dominating profile in any oil fields rate. You invest...you get oil. You don't invest, you get decline. Right now, if you want to maximize revenue, you don't invest, allow the supply/demand balance to increase price, and enjoy the rain of cash you created for yourself.
The US E&Ps are doing exactly this, and benefit in the same way as the NOC's.
The good news of course is that this kind of economic behavior, decline battling lack of investment for whatever reason, creating higher prices, creates the mechanism of its own demise. Gotta love it, the solution built right into the problem, and activating just as hard (but with a temporal lag) as the original problem itself.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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by Plantagenet » Fri 03 Jun 2022, 23:41:52
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JuanP', 'I') believe that underinvestment in maintaining, replacing, and increasing production capacity over the last handful of years due to low prices is coming back to bite us in the butt.
Exactly right. And the underinvestment is not just due to low oil prices.
There's been a movement in the international financial community to pressure banks to not lend money to finance oil projects as a way to keep oil in the ground and reduce carbon emissions.
The Biden administration has also been restricting leasing and permitting for new oil pipelines, new oil leases, and new drilling permits on federal lands as a way to keep oil in the ground and reduce carbon emissions.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JuanP', ' ')
I believe that there is not enough spare production capacity to supply future demand. OPEC+ has supposedly agreed to increase production by around 1Mbpd in the short-term future, but I don't think they have the ability to do that. We should find out before the year is over. If I am correct in my guess, we are looking forward to years of oil supply problems, high prices and/or economic crises. We've been through these cycles many times before, as Rockman has pointed out countless times.
Thanks for that lesson, Rockman! Again, you are 100% right.
IMHO the interesting questions now are (1) how long it will take for oil production to increase enough to bring world oil prices now.....and (2) where will the new increases in oil production come from.
The last time we had $100/bbl oil the increased oil production came from intensive fracking of US oil shales.
But we can't do that again.
So where will the needed extra oil production come from this time?
Or perhaps the world has run out of new oil fields.
Perhaps....at long last.......the world is at PEAK OIL.
CHeerS!
Never underestimate the ability of Joe Biden to f#@% things up---Barack Obama
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Keep running between the raindrops.
by JuanP » Sat 04 Jun 2022, 08:25:07
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JuanP', 'I') believe that underinvestment in maintaining, replacing, and increasing production capacity over the last handful of years due to low prices is coming back to bite us in the butt.
Exactly right. And the underinvestment is not just due to low oil prices.
There's been a movement in the international financial community to pressure banks to not lend money to finance oil projects as a way to keep oil in the ground and reduce carbon emissions.
The Biden administration has also been restricting leasing and permitting for new oil pipelines, new oil leases, and new drilling permits on federal lands as a way to keep oil in the ground and reduce carbon emissions.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JuanP', ' ')
I believe that there is not enough spare production capacity to supply future demand. OPEC+ has supposedly agreed to increase production by around 1Mbpd in the short-term future, but I don't think they have the ability to do that. We should find out before the year is over. If I am correct in my guess, we are looking forward to years of oil supply problems, high prices and/or economic crises. We've been through these cycles many times before, as Rockman has pointed out countless times.
Thanks for that lesson, Rockman! Again, you are 100% right.
IMHO the interesting questions now are (1) how long it will take for oil production to increase enough to bring world oil prices now.....and (2) where will the new increases in oil production come from.
The last time we had $100/bbl oil the increased oil production came from intensive fracking of US oil shales.
But we can't do that again.
So where will the needed extra oil production come from this time?
Or perhaps the world has run out of new oil fields.
Perhaps....at long last.......the world is at PEAK OIL.
CHeerS!
Excellent points without exception by Plantagenet, which perfectly complement mine, proving my post a little incomplete. I started highlighting in red the parts I agreed with, and realized, after I finished, that I had highlighted his whole post!
His observation on partial financial divestment from oil production for ecological reasons, which also applies to other fossil fuels is right on. Biden hasn't helped the outlook for oil production in the US either.
I am also very curious to find out how much further global oil extraction can increase in the future, if at all, where that production would come from, and how long that will take.
And, finally, the brilliant observation that we could, perhaps, be finally experiencing Global Peak Oil, with which I also completely agree.
I believe that oil production has the geological capacity to be increased significantly in a few areas like Libya, Venezuela, Iraq, Iran, and a couple of other places, but I believe it probably won't happen for social, financial, ecological considerations, and geopolitical reasons. So, IMO, we could be finally experiencing Peak Oil, though not for geological reasons.
Since we've failed to prepare for this, as a species, I believe we are in for a rough ride in the decades ahead.
by evilgenius » Sat 04 Jun 2022, 08:46:21
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', '
')2. There is speculation fever that future supply will get even worse (but why?)
Natural decline is the dominating profile in any oil fields rate. You invest...you get oil. You don't invest, you get decline. Right now, if you want to maximize revenue, you don't invest, allow the supply/demand balance to increase price, and enjoy the rain of cash you created for yourself.
The US E&Ps are doing exactly this, and benefit in the same way as the NOC's.
The good news of course is that this kind of economic behavior, decline battling lack of investment for whatever reason, creating higher prices, creates the mechanism of its own demise. Gotta love it, the solution built right into the problem, and activating just as hard (but with a temporal lag) as the original problem itself.
Are you trying to suggest that the place that high oil prices takes up in the psychology of one political type is different than the other? I wonder what that means for independent voters?
I think most independents are actually loathe to put Republicans back in power. I, however, also think that they buy into the line that there isn't any difference between the parties. Everywhere somebody has an argument that has to do with personal sovereignty, or something like that. Each party has a claim to it, in their own way.
In every case, I am supposed to only see my point of view. I'm supposed to be selfish, and not question if that distorts me.
That's where the problem comes from. It's hard to discuss this in the language of markets. Human communication is not binary like markets are.
Well, it might be, but if it is, that binary way of thinking would be over very specific segments of larger markets, not the larger markets as a whole. It would come down to making models of those specific segments, predicting how they would interact. I'm afraid we may be too lazy for that.
That gets in the way of just wanting. Obviously, most things can be marketed to us this same way. So, we, sort of, farm out thinking to those brave enough to put the effort into something that might fail. Because, most dangerous of all, it undermines our relationship with what is the null hypothesis. It makes us think that those things aren't worth the effort. But the pursuit of that is what teaches us the truth. Otherwise, you are just asking the opinion of children. When it comes to politics, you are asking the opinion, basically, of Peter Pan. He's charismatic and all, but he is also in deep denial.
by JuanP » Sat 04 Jun 2022, 09:18:36
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', '
')2. There is speculation fever that future supply will get even worse (but why?)
Natural decline is the dominating profile in any oil fields rate. You invest...you get oil. You don't invest, you get decline. Right now, if you want to maximize revenue, you don't invest, allow the supply/demand balance to increase price, and enjoy the rain of cash you created for yourself.
The US E&Ps are doing exactly this, and benefit in the same way as the NOC's.
The good news of course is that this kind of economic behavior, decline battling lack of investment for whatever reason, creating higher prices, creates the mechanism of its own demise. Gotta love it, the solution built right into the problem, and activating just as hard (but with a temporal lag) as the original problem itself.
Are you trying to suggest that the place that high oil prices takes up in the psychology of one political type is different than the other? I wonder what that means for independent voters?
EG, I can't find a single word in AdamB's comment about politics. You are the one bringing the subject up, not him. AdamB is one of only three people on my ignore list because I find most of his comments not worth reading and life is too short, but I agree 100% with his post above, which as far as I can tell brings up only economic and financial considerations influencing oil production cycles, and not political ones.
by AdamB » Sat 04 Jun 2022, 10:27:03
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Perhaps....at long last.......the world is at PEAK OIL.
CHeerS!
After 5 of them claimed this century and #6 in 2018 not having been relegated to just another bad call yet, it seems that it is a smooth move that you preceded your statement with "perhaps".
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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by C8 » Sat 04 Jun 2022, 11:13:27
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Perhaps....at long last.......the world is at PEAK OIL.
CHeerS!
After 5 of them claimed this century and #6 in 2018 not having been relegated to just another bad call yet, it seems that it is a smooth move that you preceded your statement with "perhaps".
I hope you are right, I never want to see real Peak Oil in my life time- things that are often entertaining to think about online are hell in the real world. I am a big reader of history and am always aware that, for little fish like me, the vast expanse of mankind's journey has been extremely unkind.
