[Petrocrash]

Hello everyone. Re-newb here.

I am a former member, some of you old-timers here may vaguely remember me. I believe I was here for about about six years, give or take, between 2005 and 2011. Don't know why my username/login info was gone so re-registered. Unfortunately, no going back to my former contributions here to review where was in my knowledge and thinking at the time but I do know that I was aboard the pro-PO (sic) bandwagon right up until I put the issue/topic on the back-burner. From what I can gather, I seem to have been among an exodus of PO-philes at the time, I assume most for the same reasons I bailed: Un-conventional production increases and the shadow-of-doubt.

Disclaimer: I am in no way associated with, nor am I educated or professionally associated in any capacity, as to the intricacies, methods, academics or disciplines, nor the technologies that contribute to the production of oil. I was just a mere observer with a lot of time and an intense concern about an alarming phenomenon called 'Peak Oil". I'm sure I followed the same arc as everyone else on the pro-PO side of the debate. I took my position based on my own daily observations and research, not from any form of industry expertise. When I walked away from the debate, I told everyone I had been warning about PO that I would no longer be talking about it (I'm sure to their relief) because some things were happening that were giving me pause and the only way I could see to know for sure one way or the other was to move on with my life and if we were truly in a post-peak scenario, the social, economic, and geopolitical implications would reveal that fact. Now, after a decade, I am for the first time tentatively dipping back in to the issue - but not the debate. Which brings me to today, and back to PO.com.

The reason why I'm dropping back in on the issue is not oil production, which to my dismay, seems to still be growing after 10 years. Looks like a significant drop in Feb 2021's data at EIA - Production. Same as it ever was, the signals that turn out to be mirages. Shrug. Anyway, I'm back to the topic because of what I've seen in the past decade as signals other than production numbers, as mentioned above: social, economic, and geopolitical signals.

One of the signals I am receiving (I'm seeing multiple, which were enumerated as "effects" in the warnings of PO) which, I will admit openly and perhaps sheepishly, seems rather woo-ish, even though it derives from my own observations: the convenience of a global pandemic that is reshaping how we live and work, thereby reshaping the consumption of oil EIA - Consumption. I know, I know...woo-woo! According to projections, consumption is expected to recover. And my thinking requires a conspiracy to create a pandemic. I know! But I can't help it - TPTB to meet occasionally to shape the world economic landscape!

So, anyway, I'm back to get a sense of where we are with regard to PO. I don't know how long I'll be back on the subject, probably until I am driven away again by the doubts and contradictions and the signals that end up as mirages. Your comments and links to resources that will assist me in updating my knowledge of the situation are greatly appreciated. I will be mostly lurking, but may jump in occasionally with a question.

Hope everyone is well and staying safe and to my fellow Americans here, a reflective and contemplative Memorial Day.

[Newfie]

Welcome back.

Things change and stay the same.

I think there is a lot to your observations. The GREAT RESET sounds like a shill game if I ever heard one.

I am not so much into conspiracies as into thinking we are approaching the apex shown in the Limits To Growth charts. As we approach that peak thing should start to get wonky. Oil, fossil fuels, are only one of various resources we are depleting. Water may catch us first. Yet I still think the global financial Ponzi will be the first shoe to drop. People are feeling the unease, that feeds the pandemic.

Time will tell.

[aadbrd]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Petrocrash', 'm')y thinking requires a conspiracy to create a pandemic.

[jedrider]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aadbrd', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Petrocrash', 'm')y thinking requires a conspiracy to create a pandemic.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Petrocrash', 'm')y thinking requires a conspiracy to create a pandemic.

[Newfie]

Sounds more like mass stupidity than conspiracy.

I just finished rereading The Big Short, about the 2008 crash. The similarity is that the crash was caused by stupidity, mass stupidity, within the financial systems. People believed what the herd believed, the party line. The very few who figured it out and made fortunes shorting the system were all odd people, not people people. Independent thinkers who looked at data.

Stupidity gets us to go along and get along as self domesticated critters. Its a feature, not a flaw.

[jedrider]

Anyway, Fauci funding virus research in China is NOT a big deal. Mostly, it is to acquire the results of their studies, would be my guess. I don't think that the Chinese need a measly $600K for virus research, but they do need the collaboration IMO. The collaboration seems to be lacking now, but then it was Trump that withdrew American virologists stationed in China. BTW, I do subscribe to the lab leak hypothesis of how Covid-19 came to become a pandemic.

[aadbrd]

This thread should have nothing to do with Fauci. There are plenty of hangouts on the internet for Qanoners to circle-jerk.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aadbrd', ' ')There are plenty of hangouts on the internet .....to circle-jerk.

[mousepad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aadbrd', ' ')There are plenty of hangouts on the internet .....to circle-jerk.

[aadbrd]

10 years on, I think it's time to rebrand the site for what it is.

[jedrider]

+10

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aadbrd', '1')0 years on, I think it's time to rebrand the site for what it is.

[nordblom]

Actually, Petrocrash, you weren't wrong. Little early but so was I. Fracking had been around since the 50s but was way too expensive to do so the oil companies let it go. Fracking didn't pay this time either but it gave many a time to rant, to throw dumb comments at PO people. Fracking was just an expensive way to avoid reality. And most of all, a time to scream "ain't we great" which Americans love to do. We slid ever deeper into fantasy, hate, name calling and sheer ignorance. I spent some time working with what we call "addicts" and see the same behaviors in all this. However, it did make the final years of my life more pleasant. In the end, reality always wins.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nordblom', 'A')ctually, Petrocrash, you weren't wrong. Little early but so was I. Fracking had been around since the 50s but was way too expensive to do so the oil companies let it go.

[jato0072]

I will piggyback on this thread.

I am back too after going to sleep ~12 years ago. I could not seem to get into my old account "jato" so I made this new one.

Things seem to be heating up! It appears oil has peaked globally. It is being sold as "Peak Demand" due to "climate change", green new deal, etc. Either way I am back on the prowl trying to figure out WTF is going on!

[Heineken]

Hi Petrocrash. I remember you vaguely. I was away a long time too. I made maybe one comment a year. I've "returned" slightly lately (big deal). I came to the conclusion that PO theory was mostly wrong, and even if was right, it wasn't too important. For me the real issue is GW. I see GW as about 1,000-fold more important than PO. And even more imminent. What we've seen is that there are so many alternatives to oil and gas, and they actually work or can be made to work at levels sufficient to sustain our precious lil civilization. But with GW there is no way out, and the whole nightmare is getting worse every single day. It is our doom.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato0072', 'I') will piggyback on this thread.

I am back too after going to sleep ~12 years ago. I could not seem to get into my old account "jato" so I made this new one.

Things seem to be heating up! It appears oil has peaked globally. It is being sold as "Peak Demand" due to "climate change", green new deal, etc. Either way I am back on the prowl trying to figure out WTF is going on!

[jato0072]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'e')ven if peak supply has passed, was the cause less demand, or that less supply was practical

[Newfie]

Jato,

I have similar thoughts. I AM worried about climate change but also general resource depletion, pandemics, and the general state of the world economy. I don’t think the WEF is behind the Corona, but are using it and peoples general unease about the future to gain control.

There are rational paths forward; nuclear power up as fast as possible, power down as fast as possible, reduce population as fast as possible.

What I SEE is that we are stumbling forward, like a junkie looking for the next fix. We have not hit our personal bottom.

Yet at some point we will, and how that goes will be interesting.