[REAL Green]

If I were you, regardless of affiliation, I would get ready for a final confrontation. I am not sure I would say Hot CW2 across the nation but DC might light up:

“Bipartisan” Washington Insiders Reveal Their Plan for Chaos if Trump Wins the Election”
https://unlimitedhangout.com/2020/09/in ... -election/

“A group of Democratic Party insiders and former Obama and Clinton era officials as well as a cadre of “Never Trump” neoconservative Republicans have spent the past few months conducting simulations and “war games” regarding different 2020 election “doomsday” scenarios. Per several media reports on the group, called the Transition Integrity Project (TIP), they justify these exercises as specifically preparing for a scenario where President Trump loses the 2020 election and refuses to leave office, potentially resulting in a constitutional crisis. However, according to TIP’s own documents, even their simulations involving a “clear win” for Trump in the upcoming election resulted in a constitutional crisis, as they predicted that the Biden campaign would make bold moves aimed at securing the presidency, regardless of the election result. This is particularly troubling given that TIP has considerable ties to the Obama administration, where Biden served as Vice President, as well as several groups that are adamantly pro-Biden in addition to the Biden campaign itself. Indeed, the fact that a group of openly pro-Biden Washington insiders and former government officials have gamed out scenarios for possible election outcomes and their aftermath, all of which either ended with Biden becoming president or a constitutional crisis, suggest that powerful forces influencing the Biden campaign are pushing the former Vice President to refuse to concede the election even if he loses. This, of course, gravely undercuts the TIP’s claim to be ensuring “integrity” in the presidential transition process and instead suggests that the group is openly planning on how to ensure that Trump leaves office regardless of the result or to manufacture the very constitutional crisis they claim to be preventing through their simulations.”

[sparky]

.
the concept of government debt would be shaken if there is doubt on who is the government
but the world is used to the US permanent crisis ,
as a rough estimate a six months kerfuffle about number won't matter
some interesting situation could occur such as the death of Justice Ginsburg ....before the election , or worst , just after

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-18/ ... e/12469234

[JuanP]

"With global recession looming, Russia looks strong"
https://www.awaragroup.com/blog/with-gl ... ks-strong/

"Now, whether this system will come crashing down or just slowly die as it trundles downhill will not matter all that much. It will eventually die either way. Most people would prefer the slow motion option, but only with the crash would a cure come. Whatever, it has become increasingly difficult to stave off the crash and this time around, the financial markets would take the real economy down with them big time."

This is from August 2019, but still an interesting article on Russia's economy and the global economy, too. Long story short, the Russian economy is in pretty good shape with very little debt of any type, a large sovereign fund, and good forex reserves. Russia is also the biggest country on Earth and has very large reserves of resources.

The Russians also enjoy the incredible advantage of not suffering population growth. The World Bank's Russian population change rate for 2018 was 0.0%.

[DesuMaiden]

Back in 2005-2006, about 1/2 of all recoverable oil was already extracted. That was when the world experienced the first peak of global oil extraction, which lead to the 2008 to 2009 economic recession. Briefly, in 2008, the price of oil spiked at 147 usd /barrel. Note that I use the term "extraction" rather than "production" because the former is what we actually do...extract oil; we don't "produce" oil.

From 2005 to 2010, conventional oil extraction reached a global peak, which prevented any further economic growth. Thus leading to a major recession in 2008. The peak of oil extraction is reached when about 1/2 of all of the recoverable oil has been extracted, and that was in 2005-2006.

However, the elites of the world didn't want oil extraction to enter a permanent decline in 2008-2009, so they ramped up the rate of oil extraction from 2010 onwards. So rather than let global oil extraction rates enter a natural decline once 1/2 of all recoverable oil has been used up, the elites wanted economic growth to continue. Thus, they ramped up the level of oil extraction from 2010 onwards to delay the inevtable decline in oil extraction. So global oil extraction ,from 2010 onwardly slightly grew for a few more years, until 2018 when the all-time peak of global oil extraction was reached.

Then Coronavirus struck in 2020 , leading to a 10% decrease in oil demand. And this decrease in oil demand --caused by covid-19 --is probably the only reason why we haven't felt oil shortages yet. Once the covid-19 pandemic is over, oil demand will go back to what it was in 2019 (before the pandemic), but this time the rate of oil extraction will enter a permanent decline. Thus, causing a massive shortage of oil supply because of the demand outstripping the supply.

Because the peak of global oil extraction was delayed by the elites, the rate of decline of oil extraction will be much greater than if they let it naturally decline when 1/2 of the recoverable oil was gone. We probably already depleted around 80% of all recoverable oil this planet ever had. At the very least. Meaning the rate of decline of oil extraction will be a very steep curve. Rather than a relatively slow decline of 2-3% per year if decline was to happen after 50-60% depletion, we will now have a rapid decline of 6 to 7% per year from after 80-85% depletion.

So yes, ironically, by delaying the global peak of oil extraction by ramping up extraction rates, we lead to a much steeper decline rate when the decline became inevitable. And due to the rapid decline rates, industrial civilization will rapidly collapse rather than slowly decay.

[Armageddon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', 'B')ack in 2005-2006, about 1/2 of all recoverable oil was already extracted. That was when the world experienced the first peak of global oil extraction, which lead to the 2008 to 2009 economic recession. Briefly, in 2008, the price of oil spiked at 147 usd /barrel. Note that I use the term "extraction" rather than "production" because the former is what we actually do...extract oil; we don't "produce" oil.

From 2005 to 2010, conventional oil extraction reached a global peak, which prevented any further economic growth. Thus leading to a major recession in 2008. The peak of oil extraction is reached when about 1/2 of all of the recoverable oil has been extracted, and that was in 2005-2006.

However, the elites of the world didn't want oil extraction to enter a permanent decline in 2008-2009, so they ramped up the rate of oil extraction from 2010 onwards. So rather than let global oil extraction rates enter a natural decline once 1/2 of all recoverable oil has been used up, the elites wanted economic growth to continue. Thus, they ramped up the level of oil extraction from 2010 onwards to delay the inevtable decline in oil extraction. So global oil extraction ,from 2010 onwardly slightly grew for a few more years, until 2018 when the all-time peak of global oil extraction was reached.

Then Coronavirus struck in 2020 , leading to a 10% decrease in oil demand. And this decrease in oil demand --caused by covid-19 --is probably the only reason why we haven't felt oil shortages yet. Once the covid-19 pandemic is over, oil demand will go back to what it was in 2019 (before the pandemic), but this time the rate of oil extraction will enter a permanent decline. Thus, causing a massive shortage of oil supply because of the demand outstripping the supply.

Because the peak of global oil extraction was delayed by the elites, the rate of decline of oil extraction will be much greater than if they let it naturally decline when 1/2 of the recoverable oil was gone. We probably already depleted around 80% of all recoverable oil this planet ever had. At the very least. Meaning the rate of decline of oil extraction will be a very steep curve. Rather than a relatively slow decline of 2-3% per year if decline was to happen after 50-60% depletion, we will now have a rapid decline of 6 to 7% per year from after 80-85% depletion.

So yes, ironically, by delaying the global peak of oil extraction by ramping up extraction rates, we lead to a much steeper decline rate when the decline became inevitable. And due to the rapid decline rates, industrial civilization will rapidly collapse rather than slowly decay.

[OutcastPhilosopher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', 'B')ack in 2005-2006, about 1/2 of all recoverable oil was already extracted. That was when the world experienced the first peak of global oil extraction, which lead to the 2008 to 2009 economic recession. Briefly, in 2008, the price of oil spiked at 147 usd /barrel. Note that I use the term "extraction" rather than "production" because the former is what we actually do...extract oil; we don't "produce" oil.

From 2005 to 2010, conventional oil extraction reached a global peak, which prevented any further economic growth. Thus leading to a major recession in 2008. The peak of oil extraction is reached when about 1/2 of all of the recoverable oil has been extracted, and that was in 2005-2006.

However, the elites of the world didn't want oil extraction to enter a permanent decline in 2008-2009, so they ramped up the rate of oil extraction from 2010 onwards. So rather than let global oil extraction rates enter a natural decline once 1/2 of all recoverable oil has been used up, the elites wanted economic growth to continue. Thus, they ramped up the level of oil extraction from 2010 onwards to delay the inevtable decline in oil extraction. So global oil extraction ,from 2010 onwardly slightly grew for a few more years, until 2018 when the all-time peak of global oil extraction was reached.

Then Coronavirus struck in 2020 , leading to a 10% decrease in oil demand. And this decrease in oil demand --caused by covid-19 --is probably the only reason why we haven't felt oil shortages yet. Once the covid-19 pandemic is over, oil demand will go back to what it was in 2019 (before the pandemic), but this time the rate of oil extraction will enter a permanent decline. Thus, causing a massive shortage of oil supply because of the demand outstripping the supply.

Because the peak of global oil extraction was delayed by the elites, the rate of decline of oil extraction will be much greater than if they let it naturally decline when 1/2 of the recoverable oil was gone. We probably already depleted around 80% of all recoverable oil this planet ever had. At the very least. Meaning the rate of decline of oil extraction will be a very steep curve. Rather than a relatively slow decline of 2-3% per year if decline was to happen after 50-60% depletion, we will now have a rapid decline of 6 to 7% per year from after 80-85% depletion.

So yes, ironically, by delaying the global peak of oil extraction by ramping up extraction rates, we lead to a much steeper decline rate when the decline became inevitable. And due to the rapid decline rates, industrial civilization will rapidly collapse rather than slowly decay.

[JuanP]

Not a bad analysis at al, Desu, and welcome back! I don't know how things will play out, but I definitely agree that what you describe in your post is a very real possibility.

[aadbrd]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', 'B')ack in 2005-2006, about 1/2 of all recoverable oil was already extracted. That was when the world experienced the first peak of global oil extraction, which lead to the 2008 to 2009 economic recession.

[DesuMaiden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OutcastPhilosopher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', 'B')ack in 2005-2006, about 1/2 of all recoverable oil was already extracted. That was when the world experienced the first peak of global oil extraction, which lead to the 2008 to 2009 economic recession. Briefly, in 2008, the price of oil spiked at 147 usd /barrel. Note that I use the term "extraction" rather than "production" because the former is what we actually do...extract oil; we don't "produce" oil.

From 2005 to 2010, conventional oil extraction reached a global peak, which prevented any further economic growth. Thus leading to a major recession in 2008. The peak of oil extraction is reached when about 1/2 of all of the recoverable oil has been extracted, and that was in 2005-2006.

However, the elites of the world didn't want oil extraction to enter a permanent decline in 2008-2009, so they ramped up the rate of oil extraction from 2010 onwards. So rather than let global oil extraction rates enter a natural decline once 1/2 of all recoverable oil has been used up, the elites wanted economic growth to continue. Thus, they ramped up the level of oil extraction from 2010 onwards to delay the inevtable decline in oil extraction. So global oil extraction ,from 2010 onwardly slightly grew for a few more years, until 2018 when the all-time peak of global oil extraction was reached.

Then Coronavirus struck in 2020 , leading to a 10% decrease in oil demand. And this decrease in oil demand --caused by covid-19 --is probably the only reason why we haven't felt oil shortages yet. Once the covid-19 pandemic is over, oil demand will go back to what it was in 2019 (before the pandemic), but this time the rate of oil extraction will enter a permanent decline. Thus, causing a massive shortage of oil supply because of the demand outstripping the supply.

Because the peak of global oil extraction was delayed by the elites, the rate of decline of oil extraction will be much greater than if they let it naturally decline when 1/2 of the recoverable oil was gone. We probably already depleted around 80% of all recoverable oil this planet ever had. At the very least. Meaning the rate of decline of oil extraction will be a very steep curve. Rather than a relatively slow decline of 2-3% per year if decline was to happen after 50-60% depletion, we will now have a rapid decline of 6 to 7% per year from after 80-85% depletion.

So yes, ironically, by delaying the global peak of oil extraction by ramping up extraction rates, we lead to a much steeper decline rate when the decline became inevitable. And due to the rapid decline rates, industrial civilization will rapidly collapse rather than slowly decay.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', ' ')Given how the government vehemently denies peak oil, it seems like they are intentionally try to accelerate the rate at which things fall apart.

[DesuMaiden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', ' ')Given how the government vehemently denies peak oil, it seems like they are intentionally try to accelerate the rate at which things fall apart.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', ' ')What I am basically saying is that don't expect a "slow decline". The fast crash may be highly probable. And btw, a 6 to 7% decline rate/year is an extremely fast decline rate. It could result in supply chains literally breaking down within a matter of years (due to lack of fuel). Thus, resulting in supermarkets going unstocked with food and other essential items. Gas stations running out of gas. The airline industry shutting down (due to lack of fuel). And how exactly can anyone prepare for such a SHTF scenario?

[Pops]

A couple of points Desu
The peak is not necessarily at the midpoint, perhaps in a world without constraints where producers simply pumped with abandon but this ain't that.
And besides, no one has any idea where the midpoint is, won't know until it's all gone and we know the total
"Elites" could not have increased LTO if production had peaked—the definition of peak is the inability to increase

But,
Conventionally produced oil outside US LTO and Iraq has been essentially flat since 2005,
the period from 05-14 had the highest sustained oil prices ever, and only barely raised conventional supply
IOW, conventional oil then has been on a plateau for 15 years, the whole period PO.com has been around
There might be 5 or 7mmb/d of oil on the sidelines, but then there is always oil somewhere that is in political trouble.

I tend to agree with you though, LTO and now COVID could be "masking" the peak
Also the low price 2014-2020 due to LTO slowed investment and could cause a supply crimp next year
It could be that all the borrowing and LTO the last dozen years has "extended" the peak leading to a shark-fin curve

I'd not be surprised by a fairly rapid decline, I don't bet everything on it, but I do have it in mind.
.

[OutcastPhilosopher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OutcastPhilosopher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', 'B')ack in 2005-2006, about 1/2 of all recoverable oil was already extracted. That was when the world experienced the first peak of global oil extraction, which lead to the 2008 to 2009 economic recession. Briefly, in 2008, the price of oil spiked at 147 usd /barrel. Note that I use the term "extraction" rather than "production" because the former is what we actually do...extract oil; we don't "produce" oil.

From 2005 to 2010, conventional oil extraction reached a global peak, which prevented any further economic growth. Thus leading to a major recession in 2008. The peak of oil extraction is reached when about 1/2 of all of the recoverable oil has been extracted, and that was in 2005-2006.

However, the elites of the world didn't want oil extraction to enter a permanent decline in 2008-2009, so they ramped up the rate of oil extraction from 2010 onwards. So rather than let global oil extraction rates enter a natural decline once 1/2 of all recoverable oil has been used up, the elites wanted economic growth to continue. Thus, they ramped up the level of oil extraction from 2010 onwards to delay the inevtable decline in oil extraction. So global oil extraction ,from 2010 onwardly slightly grew for a few more years, until 2018 when the all-time peak of global oil extraction was reached.

Then Coronavirus struck in 2020 , leading to a 10% decrease in oil demand. And this decrease in oil demand --caused by covid-19 --is probably the only reason why we haven't felt oil shortages yet. Once the covid-19 pandemic is over, oil demand will go back to what it was in 2019 (before the pandemic), but this time the rate of oil extraction will enter a permanent decline. Thus, causing a massive shortage of oil supply because of the demand outstripping the supply.

Because the peak of global oil extraction was delayed by the elites, the rate of decline of oil extraction will be much greater than if they let it naturally decline when 1/2 of the recoverable oil was gone. We probably already depleted around 80% of all recoverable oil this planet ever had. At the very least. Meaning the rate of decline of oil extraction will be a very steep curve. Rather than a relatively slow decline of 2-3% per year if decline was to happen after 50-60% depletion, we will now have a rapid decline of 6 to 7% per year from after 80-85% depletion.

So yes, ironically, by delaying the global peak of oil extraction by ramping up extraction rates, we lead to a much steeper decline rate when the decline became inevitable. And due to the rapid decline rates, industrial civilization will rapidly collapse rather than slowly decay.

[DesuMaiden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', ' ')What I am basically saying is that don't expect a "slow decline". The fast crash may be highly probable. And btw, a 6 to 7% decline rate/year is an extremely fast decline rate. It could result in supply chains literally breaking down within a matter of years (due to lack of fuel). Thus, resulting in supermarkets going unstocked with food and other essential items. Gas stations running out of gas. The airline industry shutting down (due to lack of fuel). And how exactly can anyone prepare for such a SHTF scenario?

[aadbrd]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', '
')Anyone, who denies what I just said, is probably a shill

[OutcastPhilosopher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', ' ')What I am basically saying is that don't expect a "slow decline". The fast crash may be highly probable. And btw, a 6 to 7% decline rate/year is an extremely fast decline rate. It could result in supply chains literally breaking down within a matter of years (due to lack of fuel). Thus, resulting in supermarkets going unstocked with food and other essential items. Gas stations running out of gas. The airline industry shutting down (due to lack of fuel). And how exactly can anyone prepare for such a SHTF scenario?

[DesuMaiden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OutcastPhilosopher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', ' ')What I am basically saying is that don't expect a "slow decline". The fast crash may be highly probable. And btw, a 6 to 7% decline rate/year is an extremely fast decline rate. It could result in supply chains literally breaking down within a matter of years (due to lack of fuel). Thus, resulting in supermarkets going unstocked with food and other essential items. Gas stations running out of gas. The airline industry shutting down (due to lack of fuel). And how exactly can anyone prepare for such a SHTF scenario?

[aadbrd]

We're doomed. OK. Got it. Got anything else to contribute?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', 'B')ack in 2005-2006, about 1/2 of all recoverable oil was already extracted.