by Pops » Wed 03 Mar 2021, 11:26:44
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'a')ll debt is borrowed against future supplies of affordable hydrocarbons
I like CHS though I haven't read him in a while. I think this is an OK theory as far as it goes. But today's money, today's debt are just entries in some spreadsheet in the cloud, they could go poof this minute and the remaining fossils will still be there, they still contain just as much heat per unit— just as much
value —as they did 100 years ago, regardless of the currency. That is the problem with CHS' theory, just as it is Gail's and shorty's.
On our current trajectory all debit is a ponzi scheme, oil or no. Not being glib, it is a pyramid, the first people in get their money and pay taxes, more people are added and they get their money and they pay a little more taxes, then at some point there are not enough new people to pay all the taxes, that's when the acceleration clause kicks in and all the chits come due.
This was my rant in the degrowth thread, The gig is up, the growth that matters is over. The rich world party has gone too long, the bar tab is going on the card. After the Boomers die off they will leave a huge bill and the following generations will be too small to foot the tab—if we make it that far considering everything those generations owe
me I mean "seniors". (sarcasm there in case it wasn't obvious)
Even if we
tear down that wall the population can't grow indefinitely and won't, likely it will top out in 2060 then decline.
Here is mainstream media giving a good overview, the context is the pandemic baby bust but it lays out the situation surprisingly well:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he number of babies the average woman in the U.S. is expected to deliver has dropped from nearly four in the 1950s to less than two today.
The drop could present an entirely different risk to society than one that was first warned about decades ago — when an apocalyptic fear gripped America in the 1960s and 1970s. ...Biologist Paul Ehrlich once explained the threat as "The Population Bomb," the title of a book he authored in 1968. "Sometime in the next 15 years, the end will come — and by the end, I mean an utter breakdown of the capacity of the planet to support humanity," he said in a 1970 broadcast.
... The U.S. is already below the so-called "replacement level" by some measures, meaning fewer young people to support the country's otherwise aging population.
Myers said of the decline, "That's a crisis."
"We need to have enough working-age people to carry the load of these seniors, who deserve their retirement, they deserve all their entitlements, and they're gonna live out another 30 years," he said. "Nobody in the history of the globe has had so many older people to deal with."
Sometimes I wonder if these people aren't reading my posts...
Anyway, it goes on to talk about how hard it is for millennials to get by—but never mentions the huge overhang of debt they will inherit. Either that debt will be inflated away, a scarier possibility every day, or it will be defaulted on, there is no chance the smaller population will be able to pay it off. A default would be the Real Reset. Pretty sure none of us know how bad that could be.
I think this is the crux of the actual, non-political immigration debate, even though I realize most people are either stuck in the disco-era population bomb mindset; the nativist camp or the leftist, borders-are-for-fascists clique. Just like the predicted Coming Ace Age headline was totally backward, the Population Explosion turned out to be an implosion instead.
Turns out Cassandra was as wrong as everyone said, but we're still doomed. LOL
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