[careinke]

Hey dohboi,

As I was perusing the boards today, I noticed you were getting close to your 20,000th post. First, I wondered if you were planning on your final post being on New Years Eve. Then I noticed no one had put up a prediction thread for 2021. Serindipidishly, I came to the conclusion it would be great if your final post was your prediction of the future.

Granted it's a selfish request, but it would be fun to see how it compares to what actually comes about.

I will also post here once I finish my composition, hopefully in a few days. I hope others will also post as I feel next year marks a significant turning point for civilization no matter how it eventually turns out.

Your predictions can be on any facet of our economics, environment, innovations, health, politics or whatever else you want to write about. Feel free to discuss more than one subject.

Thanks for your consideration.

[JuanP]

I predict that life, precipitation, the weather, etc. will continue getting more impredictable. CO2, droughts, floods, storms, deforestation, ocean acidification, soil erosion, human population, desertification, aquifer depletion, global temperature, financial debt and speculation, climate disruptions, natural catastrophes, etc. will keep increasing. Peace, harmony, quality of life, Arctic sea ice, biological diversity, ecosystems diversity, etc. will keep decreasing.

I expect herd immunity and the deployment of vaccines to make the COVID-19 pandemic more manageable by the end of 2021. The global economy most likely will remain stagnant for most of the year, except in a few lucky places like China.

I have absolutely no idea what the hell will be going on in 20221 and beyond, though, except that I seriously doubt humans will still be around by then.

[careinke]

Damn, Sorry about the topic name, I completely missed it and now can't change it.

[evilgenius]

I have other thoughts about 2021, but this one strikes me right now. 2021 will probably be divided and violent. There was just now a coup attempt upon the Government of the United States. It was perpetrated by bullies. One thing you learn in life is that bullies have to be stood up to. They never realize anything. They don't voluntarily change their ways. They have to be forced to respect others. Given that force comes with an attitude of inclusion, once there has been cooperation, some of them will learn.

We aren't parading anybody in front of the cameras. Nobody has been frog marched into the courthouse. The president is only desperate to make the next covering lie. He's not worried about accountability. Further, the push back against the everyman who would join in on this level of thought hasn't happened. That will only encourage the bullies among the everymen. As it stands, the bullies are the difference. Everything is being done to facilitate the cruel way their minds have to answer every question. Tomorrow, it will likely be our ways of going about doing things, some weird accommodation having been made for those who should never be given a seat at the table.

[Pops]

I wanted to post to this thread when it first went up but I had no reply button, figured I was probably auto-banned from prediction threads, LOL

Have you ever seen a kid when they realize they've just done something bad? I get the feeling some republicans are feeling some vague sense of remorse and perhaps hoping for an excuse to get away from the poison they've been drinking and spoon feeding the gullible masses. I don't know for sure, and don't have much of a baseline since I never go there, but looking at Fox News site just now it reads like VOX or huffpost as the hypocrites scramble to distance themselves from the outrages they have been lining their pockets with for years. Probably a fleeting moment but I'll predict that some Rinos like Romney gain in power and the most outrageous like Hawley and Gommert (violence in the streets!) are sidelined.

One reason they were able to lie indiscriminately is that the labor force was in crisis even before the plague. Participation rate is down 6% from 2000, down 4% from the recession, half from men going on disability. That's where yer 4% record low unemployment comes from, the rate only counts those still dreaming of a job. My crystal ball gets a little hazy here, Rs blame Mexicans and Chinese and Democrats for the lack of jobs and we've had 4 years of seeing how much damage that does. Ds blame corporate greed for a lack of jobs that someone can make a living doing and they've had some success raising the minimum wage. I'll predict the Ds get the federal minimum wage raised to at least $12 if not $15, and the Rs continue to implement the "southern strategy" because after all, it's all they got.


trump will attempt to pardon himself and everyone he ever knew, loved, touched stood next to, smelt, felt, in his lifetime or any of his descendants lifetime down to the 133 person. (*David Bromberg)
He'll leave the country before the inauguration to avoid prosecution. Maybe go see Vlad for his payday and discuss some military secrets in return for a hotel sign.

On the D side Biden is having a tough transition, few or no cabinet confirmations so far and none likely before inauguration, trump only sent out notices yesterday that his appointees are to resign on the 20th, what appointees he has. trump has been successful at gutting the government if nothing else, that and cutting his own taxes, so there is going to be a long transition period until, for example, the EPA again works to protect the environment rather than auction off the right to exploit it.

Biden will have a signing party to reverse as many of trumps orders as possible, those that weren't just BS or weren't already killed by judges anyway. He'll rejoin the Paris accord, WHO, WTO, Great Reset. He'll do some national health stuff, recommend masks or something, attempt to organize the vaccine delivery, maybe give drug companies money.

Legislatively the parties are pretty equally divided and internally divided too so not much will happen, maybe public works — home weather stripping like O did. More stimulus tho, Ds can ram that through. They know that some serious recession is out there waiting on the helicopters to leave.

Social media will be regulated. MSM will stare at their collective navels.

It will take a long time to reach herd immunity, couple of years anyway. A minimum of 1 million people will die in the US. More if the new variant is much more contagious. It will be known as the trump plague. Maybe in a year when more study is complete and the variant is killing 10k/day more people will embrace the vaccine. I know a few health pros, some are not taking it because they don't trust the safety, don't trust trump.

Huge real estate washout coming. Ds will try to avoid it like the ...
FHA loan delinquencies are at record highs and only national forbearance and refinancing with free money and FHA buying up loans like it can print money...
...has kept the market afloat. But now everyone that can refi has, forbearance can't last forever, and the market has overheated on free money once again.


Oil demand and price will remain low thru the plague. Independants and small LTO operators will go BK and be bought up by majors. Uncontrolled growth in unconventional production will never return. Majors and OPEC will delay development because Iran will be allowed to export and the price will crash some more. No development now means no new oil in 5ish years. Natural gas demand will wane with increasing RE, and that means lower gas liquids. All the while depletion never sleeps. C+C will begin to decline this decade, about the time the economy wants to grow.


Night is still be dark and winter still cold and it is still a long way from here to there.
Peak demand is a mirage.
And peak oil is past

.

[jedrider]

I predict that Dohboi will come back to PO in 3 months.

I predict that the U.S. will become a failed state (not sure if that is a prediction or a matter of fact at this point).

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jedrider', 'I') predict that the U.S. will become a failed state (not sure if that is a prediction or a matter of fact at this point).

[aadbrd]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', '
')As it stands, the bullies are the difference. Everything is being done to facilitate the cruel way their minds have to answer every question. Tomorrow, it will likely be our ways of going about doing things, some weird accommodation having been made for those who should never be given a seat at the table.

[Pops]

It's always the same story, to quote W. of all people,
“Too often we judge other groups by their worst examples, while judging ourselves by our best intentions.”

[Ibon]

Peak polarization was reached with the storming of the capitol 2 days ago. The pendulum will now swing toward a collective call toward unity with Trumpsters being reduced to a small minority of deplorables.

[careinke]

Well, now that this thread is active again, I'll put my predictions here.

My predictions for 2021:

1. There is a strong possibility we will enter a major war.

2. A large central bank will fail, probably the European Central Bank, Maybe the Federal Reserve, or the Brits. It will be the excuse to convert the global reserve currency from the dollar to something else, and probably on a Block Chain. This will signify the end of privacy.

3. Bitcoin will hit at least $250,000 this year, with lots of volatility as the whales try to shake out bitcoins from newby retail investors. The smart ones will "HODL" and become rich.

4. Iran, who has moved bigtime into Bitcoin Mining will become one of the wealthiest nations in the world.

5. Commodities will rise disproportionately compared to the USD.

6. The Dims will be handing out LOTS of money, especially for energy and propaganda projects. Foreign Aid will rise and we will once again shore up the UN.

7. All Fiat currencies eventually collapse, everyone of them. It would be fitting for this Dollar to die on the fiftieth anniversary of taking the dollar off the gold standard. RIP

8. I have no clue how the rethugs are going to redefine their party, but I fully expect them to take back the House and Senate in 2022. Not because they have a good party, but most voters will be upset stuck in a great depression.

9. The grey and black markets will explode exponentially.

10. Civil unrest will become more violent and widespread across the globe.

11. The wealth disparity will widen.

[Plantagenet]

I predict that the Covid vaccine rollout will speed up and the Biden administration will hit their target of 100 million vaccinations in 100 days.

I predict that this, together with the warmer spring weather, will result in the second wave of the covid pandemic dying down by late April.

I predict the economy will respond by picking up speed next spring and the stock market market will surge to new record highs going into the fall.

I predict the covid virus will further mutate and will escape the vaccine by next fall, and we will see a third wave of the covid virus over the winter, and it will be more severe then the first two.

I predict even more deaths will result form the third wave over the winter of 2021-22, and Biden will order the whole country into shutdown, and the stock market and the global economy will collapse again.

I predict global warming will accelerate in 2021-22 as the La Nina cold cycle ends and we start a new El Nino warm cycle and unprecedented giant forest fires will explode across the west and southwest during the summers of 2021 and 2022.

I predict this will cause widespread discontent.

I predict the Rs will blame Biden for his failure to deal with global warning and his failure to control the virus (turnabout is fair play) and the Rs will recapture the House in the fall elections of 2022.

I predict the Rs in the house will launch an investigation of the millions of dollars communist china paid to Hunter and Joe Biden.

I predict the Rs in the house will Impeach Biden because he is compromised by China, but the Ds in the Senate will not vote to remove Joe.

I predict that shortly after surviving impeachment Joe Biden will resign the presidency due to advancing senility, and Kamala Harris will replace him as president in late 2022.


Look for Joe Biden to resign the presidency and Kamala Harris to take over as President

Cheers!

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'I') predict that the Covid vaccine rollout will speed up and the Biden administration will hit their target of 100 million vaccinations in 100 days.

I predict that this, together with the warmer spring weather, will result in the second wave of the covid pandemic dying down by late April.

I predict the economy will respond by picking up speed next spring and the stock market market will surge to new record highs going into the fall.

I predict the covid virus will further mutate and will escape the vaccine by next fall, and we will see a third wave of the covid virus over the winter, and it will be more severe then the first two.

I predict even more deaths will result form the third wave over the winter of 2021-22, and Biden will order the whole country into shutdown, and the stock market and the global economy will collapse again.

I predict this will cause widespread discontent.

I predict the Rs will blame Biden for his failure to deal the virus (turnabout is fair play) and the Rs will recapture the House in the fall elections of 2022.

I predict the Rs in the house will launch an investigation of the millions of dollars communist china paid to Hunter and Joe Biden.

I predict the Rs in the house will Impeach Biden because he is compromised by China, but the Ds in the Senate will not vote to remove Joe.

I predict that shortly after surviving impeachment Joe Biden will resign the presidency due to advancing senility, and Kamala Harris will replace him as president in late 2022.


Look for Joe Biden to resign the presidency and Kamala Harris to take over as President

Cheers!

[aadbrd]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '
')I agree and also predict about 80% of this.

[evilgenius]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aadbrd', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', '
')As it stands, the bullies are the difference. Everything is being done to facilitate the cruel way their minds have to answer every question. Tomorrow, it will likely be our ways of going about doing things, some weird accommodation having been made for those who should never be given a seat at the table.

[aadbrd]

I'll have to read the classics again.

I don't really see any other option other than disassociation because if you have two incompatible factions within the party then it's not really a party anymore. It's like a bad marriage. The positions and actions of one side will tar and feather the other side. The walk of shame that Lindsay Graham received in the airport or Mitt Romney being chanted at in the plane for having forsaken Trump are symptomatic. You expect Democrats to hate Trump. They are the tolerated enemy. You tend to have far more hatred for what you perceive to be turncoats.

In the last 4 years the more moderate wing of the Republicans effectively sold out to Trump without being true-believers. But if your heart really isn't in it, it's only a matter of time before you are pushed against the wall and have to reveal as much.

Having to keep forcing things into a simple left/right duality simply doesn't work anymore.

I just think the two-party system has finally outlived its usefulness. The republican party is like the home of a feuding couple and one side has to abandon the home and go rent an apartment.

I think if the Republican party attempts to merely limp forward that it will tear itself to shreds.

[evilgenius]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aadbrd', 'I')'ll have to read the classics again.

I don't really see any other option other than disassociation because if you have two incompatible factions within the party then it's not really a party anymore. It's like a bad marriage. The positions and actions of one side will tar and feather the other side. The walk of shame that Lindsay Graham received in the airport or Mitt Romney being chanted at in the plane for having forsaken Trump are symptomatic. You expect Democrats to hate Trump. They are the tolerated enemy. You tend to have far more hatred for what you perceive to be turncoats.

In the last 4 years the more moderate wing of the Republicans effectively sold out to Trump without being true-believers. But if your heart really isn't in it, it's only a matter of time before you are pushed against the wall and have to reveal as much.

Having to keep forcing things into a simple left/right duality simply doesn't work anymore.

I just think the two-party system has finally outlived its usefulness. The republican party is like the home of a feuding couple and one side has to abandon the home and go rent an apartment.

I think if the Republican party attempts to merely limp forward that it will tear itself to shreds.

[aadbrd]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', '
')It is just as likely that the collapse so many are expecting will take place in the Art World as in the Political World.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')
And also, to be honest, anyone but, say, Tesla fanbois, would freely admit that most of the current daily movement in TSLA is based on speculation vs. an investment time-frame, re fundamental developments to what Tesla is doing. So does BTC need to be any different?

[JuanP]

"Projecting 2021's economic winners and losers"
https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/projectin ... nd-losers/

According to the OECD China is expected to do best, some Asian countries will do okay, the USA will essentially slip sideways and stay where it is, the world's economy is expected to experience a little growth, most of the West is expected to experience a contraction, and the developing world will perform the worst.