[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ardalla', 'H')eh, talking about the obscurity of 'eating crow', I was talking at work yesterday about Steve McQueen and Natalie Woods, and a woman said "Who is that?". The woman was 55 years old. I finally found someone she had heard of: John Wayne. People live in very different worlds.

[thorn]

Ken Deffeyes on E&E TV:

http://www.eande.tv/main/?date=072705

[Raxozanne]

Well after the latest reports on depletion coming in over the last few days Im beginning to think Deffeyes could be right

[brentmeister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ho is this "John Wayne" you speak of?

[PhebaAndThePilgrim]

Good day: The following quotation is from "The Long Emergency" by Kunstler:
"Interview with Kenneth Deffeyes of Princeton with Julian Darley of Global PUblic Media, APril 4, 2003. "The Oil and Gas Journal publishes lists of country-by-country world oil production in the last week of each year and lo and behold in the years 2001 and 2002...thenumbers showed that the world oil production had not been as big as it was in the year 2000.
Phebagirl

[shady28]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Phebagirl', 'G')ood day: The following quotation is from "The Long Emergency" by Kunstler:
"Interview with Kenneth Deffeyes of Princeton with Julian Darley of Global PUblic Media, APril 4, 2003. "The Oil and Gas Journal publishes lists of country-by-country world oil production in the last week of each year and lo and behold in the years 2001 and 2002...thenumbers showed that the world oil production had not been as big as it was in the year 2000.
Phebagirl

[LadyRuby]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'j')delagado,

I think the April 2005 EIA report estimating world oil production exceeding world oil demand in the 4th quarter of this year gives Deffeyes PO prediction a little outside credibility. By saying he will eat crow, before we know, leaves you in vulnerable to eat crow. I don't know, but the inherent risk of predicting anything, whether its PO or someone eating crow, means the predictor will be a hero or eat crow. Better just wait and see, Thanksgivings not that far off.

[Antimatter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shady28', ' ')Oil production is really a map of oil *demand*, not the other way around.

[DefiledEngine]

So oil "demand" of an oil field slumps down towards zero after a while? Don't think so. No one ever said a hubbert curve was completely smooth in real life.

Isn't it so, that there is some oil that is easy to get to, and other oil that's harder to get to? Couldn't that possibly have an impact on production capacity?

[linlithgowoil]

the hubbert curve is flawed when used to estimate world production. of course it is, campbell's been wrong a few times before using it.

hubberts curve assumes that each oil field is worked to capacity throughout its lifetime. oil fields in the middle east have not been worked to capacity - this is self evident from the production of, say SA. They've held steady at 9.5mb/day for a while now - that sounds like a country managing their fields prudently at a set rate so as not to damage them. A country that can hold a sustained rate for years is obviously running its fields very well, as compared to the UK, whose fields have been raped hard for years and we're now paying the price.

We'l still have a peak, but im guessing campbell is still 10 years off. I think around 2015 we'll see peak, and hopefully by then oil demand will be a lot lower due to alternatives for transport being in use at a much larger scale.

[Oily_Bill]

You've gotta ask, why has the oil price trebled over the past eighteen months or so, and become more volatile. And the various statements from OPEC ministers about having lost control, and now the Riots in Yemen, the shortages in Indonesia.

All this makes me think that Peak is Here, now.

Interesting that there does not appear to have been any demand destruction for US gasoline - up 3% over the past year - even though the proce of gas is up 50% or so. How high does the gas price need to go before we see any reuction in use ?

[Cynus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oily_Bill', 'Y')ou've gotta ask, why has the oil price trebled over the past eighteen months or so, and become more volatile. And the various statements from OPEC ministers about having lost control, and now the Riots in Yemen, the shortages in Indonesia.

All this makes me think that Peak is Here, now.

Interesting that there does not appear to have been any demand destruction for US gasoline - up 3% over the past year - even though the proce of gas is up 50% or so. How high does the gas price need to go before we see any reuction in use ?

[BrownDog]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ubercrap', ' ')Marion King Hubbert is the geologist you are thinking of, Edwin Hubble was an astronomer.

[shady28]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shady28', 'T')hat illustrates the flaw in the whole peak oil theory. Oil production is really a map of oil *demand*, not the other way around. Peak oil theory is based on production views of regions where oil production is high vs max production because demand is high in that region. Specifically, the USA.

That's not to say that peak oil theory is completely false, but it's not really valid to look at one field or one region which is being used to near capacity and then comparing to dozens of regions and areas - many of which are not at capacity and have never been pumped at capacity because demand doesn't require it.

[bruin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shady28', 'P')O models the curve of usage off the first pond, and says that is the model for all water production now and in the future. That's a pretty big fallacy really.

[Russian_Cowboy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')he very first commercial wells drilled anywhere were in Central Siberia in Baku in 1849.

[OilyMon]

Production capacity must be defined here. Does it mean the maximum amount of oil that can be extracted in a unit of time? Or does it mean the maximum rate of production that the geological structure will allow for without causing significant damage to the field? Maybe it means sustainable production while causing none or negligable damage to a field.

To say that many oil producers have been underproducing is wrong. Most, by the second definition of the term production capactiy as outlined above, have been overproducing. Think of squeezing a plastic bottle to raise the liquid to the top. If you squeeze too hard to fast you will cut off significant amounts of liquid under the pinched zone, but you'll get a hell of a lotta liquid very quickly.

According to Simmons, the Saudis overproduced their fields for years until the demand destruction of the Oil Shocks in the 70's and 80's. They used these times to rest their fields, ie: let the bottle expand again. Since then, they have been flogging thier field to try and get as much oil out as possible in the shortest amount of time. Production capacity has to stop somewhere.

[lateStarter]

He should not be sweating, you and I should be (from working on our land and preparations for PO)! On the other hand, if your heart is not really in it and you are only worried about survival (a strong motivation indeed), I would suggest that you just keep doing what you are doing now.

Lots of us though are just sick and tired of the way things are, and yearn to get back to something more sustainable and more emotionally/spiritually satisfying than 'working for the man' or even 'being the man'.

I am also beginning to suspect that a few people here just want to survive and continue to live at the same level of consumption as they are accustomed to now.

Plan for the worse and if doesn't happen - so what? Will you be unhappy?