[sparky]

.
A few of the fellow posters subscribe to the doomer outlook
they have very good reasons to do so ,
modern society has always been an exercise in countering destructive forces
none less powerful than people themselves

today the societies and their mega cities are astoundingly complex and integrated
this lead them to believe
1 .....that they are brittle , a single sudden shock can see them collapsing like a house of cards
2......that they are not sustainable , their growing needs exceed their foreseeable resources

nothing much wrong with that , but I could suggest some comment

1.....a healthy society with a modicum of civil spirit is in fact very resilient ,
there were wars , disasters and crisis which were surmounted after a time
2.....adjusting to poverty is usually very disruptive, plenty of historical evidence point to the fact
but again a good management of the situation based on some drastic law and order and everybody best interest tend to favor stability

so the term "crash" find itself opposed to the term "decline" the later could easily led to the former
but there is no inevitability it would do so and a lot of interests in preventing it by any means

the critical factor is if the society has good internal cohesion ,
if it does ...it's bullet proof
if it doesn't ...it's a zombie walking to a cliff

[Newfie]

“Good internal cohesion” seems to be the operative words in your message.

[sparky]

.
Indeed , if a society is at war with itself each stress add and each solution is fought over and rejected
it's one of the dark side of democracy than assembly a majority made of minorities to impose some policies is seen as an achievement

[EnergyUnlimited]

For what I observe, there are many directed policies to destroy any remaining cohesion.
Actually everything known as progressivism is to some degree destroying this "cohesion".
So for example multiculturalism is tribalizing neighbourhoods and causing growth of envy/distrust/hatred between different ethnic groups forced to live together.
Feminism is causing hatred towards women, who at some point will simply be ditched.
LGBT excesses are causing hatred towards sexual minorities tamed by law enforcement for time being but for sure pressure is growing.
Finally increasingly authoritarian rule is causing distrust and hate towards State and its institutions.
Collapse will not be peaceful and gradual (aka decline) for long.
Once state resources are limited to a point that police apparatus have lost ability to solve different crimes faster than new crimes are committed, we can expect accelerating avalanche of criminality to take hold.
So Blacks, Whites & Latinos will start murdering each other secure in the knowledge that overstretched police cannot respond fast enough, women will become to be a "rapegame", religious groups and sexual minorities will struggle in mortal combat etc.
So there will be crush of progressive society, rather than a mere decline.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Sparky you make a good point. Re internal cohesion, looking at human history since there have been good records (let's say since about the Renaissance, but that would apply further back), implies that unexpected events and stresses on the system mean that, big picture, such cohesion doesn't last. Society changes and adapts when it is forced to, and such changes are a result of stress on the system.

And by definition, IMO, when those stresses cause big changes in how populations align and live and work, there can't BE a lot of cohesion -- at least while the stresses are being resolved.

So I think that stresses, some lack of cohesion, and lots of change over time are inevitable. The question is, does the complexity make things brittle enough to preclude the necessary transitions from taking place without "doom"?

So then you get into the definition of doom. NO DOUBT, billions will die now and again during the rough spots from wars, disease, man made crises, etc. But OTOH, EVERYBODY dies in about, say 80 years or so on average (or gets to a state where they can't do a lot of useful work).

The whole thing is a big unstable cauldron. And has been since at least the Renaissance (from where I got a decent amount of overall world history education vs. dribs and drabs).

I think in some ways, the technology will make us MORE resiliant. Look how much of the fast crash doomer scenario is on the electric grid coming down for months or years. Once solar is a cheap, effective alternative or even replacement of having to be on "the grid", and/or you have a huge number of residential solar installations feeding any excess power INTO the grid, and capable backup batteries are common or even the norm -- the idea of the grid shutting down for while being "DOOM" simply goes away. (NOT saying it wouldn't be very inconvenient, just not doom).

Of course, OTOH, unless electronics get hardened or commonly protected with Faraday cages, etc., maybe an EMP pulse replaces the grid as THE obvious huge weak point, for example.

I just think that realistically, things are FAR too complex and change FAR too much to try to make any meaningful forecasts of short to intermediate term doom probability. Which of course, might be a real bad sign, as TPTB trying to apply for effective handling of a large disaster results in plans which are pretty much a joke (same as it's been throughout the nuclear era, considering city evacuation plans, for example). OTOH, more millions will die which sounds really bad, but there's more billions around to take over once the mess is resolved. And yes, I think that by far, most of the crises are relatively local vs. global in scale.

[vtsnowedin]

On a short drive yesterday I passed several houses with solar panels mounted on roof tops or tracking poles with a 5kw system being the average (24 -200 watt panels) plus a solar "farm" I had not seen before that covered more then an acre of land. Considering that an Acre of solar panels can supply the needs of 250 homes the penetration of solar into the electric market is growing by leaps and bounds. I can count five of these acre or more farms within ten miles of my home and seeing new roof panels is now so common it is not even noteworthy. These have been erected in the last five years or so the trend is accelerating.

[sparky]

.
an intuitive insight is that the more sophisticated and specialised a society is , the more brittle it is .
simple agrarian communities are about shock proof to anything bar a big comet
a mega-city of twenty millions is just an accident waiting to happen
anything would do

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
an intuitive insight is that the more sophisticated and specialised a society is , the more brittle it is .
simple agrarian communities are about shock proof to anything bar a big comet
a mega-city of twenty millions is just an accident waiting to happen
anything would do

[sparky]

.
sophisticated societies certainly support large populations
but it's mostly because they draw from a large hinterland , either by conquest ( most empire capitals )
or by trade ......Phoenicia , Florence , Venice , Amsterdam , London
I cannot think of one which survived unless it was in isolation , like Japan or to a large extend China
the cause of their demise is usually institutional sclerosis succumbing to a variety of political and environment stresses

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
sophisticated societies certainly support large populations
but it's mostly because they draw from a large hinterland , either by conquest ( most empire capitals )
or by trade ......Phoenicia , Florence , Venice , Amsterdam , London
I cannot think of one which survived unless it was in isolation , like Japan or to a large extend China
the cause of their demise is usually institutional sclerosis succumbing to a variety of political and environment stresses

[REAL Green]

The “Reset” is about control by elites through their technocrats, bureaucrats, and lobbyist. The lobbyists are the corporate class so this is fascist. The technocrats and bureaucrats are the Marxist influence. They are targeting people of faith but not only. This is also about rights and freedoms so even if you are free thinking atheist you are a target. This is a stealth tyranny against the many who are individuals by the few who are the select. The virus is a tool. Global warming and ecological decline are a tool. The reality behind these issues don’t matter it is the “not letting a crisis go to waste” policy they are employing. The radical left is being harnessed like brown shirts to this end. Economic strangulation is a policy so people are forced into servitude while the largest corporations prosper.

There is a core element of the power principal at work here not wealth. Wealth confiscation is easy to see but power confiscation much harder mainly because of the many disguises power confiscation can take the form of. Science is a key area of this corruption. Wealth redistribution will buy these malign actors converts. There will seem to be ethical principles behind these efforts but again this is a disguise. It does not matter these actions destroy wealth because wealth is not the goal but instead power and this is why this civilizational phase will be so destructive. This is a stealth civil war and why it is so hideous. Civil wars are about power not wealth.

This confiscation is easy once critical mass of power appropriation is achieved. You will be amazed how swift change will be once Trump is removed. Trump is a key block to this process. Like him or not he is antithesis to their design. This fraudulent election was amazing but this is small beer compared to what is coming. Keep in mind this is deeper than a group it is also systematic and self-organizing. If you want to look at this process in a binary way then it is about Good vs Evil. If you look at it objectively and scientifically then you see the process also as a systematic bifurcation. Divide and conquer is the method to this madness. We are now in the late stages of a vicious “circle of a mechanization”. I leave you with a great quote from C.S Lews in “Screwtape Letter”.

“I live in the Managerial Age, in a world of “Admin”. The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid “dens of crime” that Dickens love to paint. It I not done even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final results. But it is conceived and ordered (moved, seconded, carried, and minuted) in clean, carpeted, warmed, and well-lighted offices, by quiet men with white collars and cut fingernails and smooth-shaven cheeks who do not need to raise their voice.”
And
“Someone or something beyond conscious control must overthrow the Devil at the right moment, for, being an archangel he can read thoughts and is always aware of the intention that precedes the act. He can be defeated only by an act without prior intent. “let not your left hand know what your right hand doeth.” Now in Christian terminology this “someone or something beyond conscious control” is called the grace of God, and grace is held to be the only means of overcoming the machinations of the Devil, that is, of the vicious circle into which self-consciousness can lead us.”
“The Screwtape Letters” C. S. Lewis

“Governed by Demonic Spirit or Divine Intelligence – Catherine Austin Fitts”
https://usawatchdog.com/governed-by-dem ... tin-fitts/

“The number one goal of reset architects is destroying Jesus and all of his Christian believers…What do our founding documents say? They say our freedom comes to us from divine authority. Right? So, to destroy that system, you have to destroy those things. When you look at the Covid 19 lockdowns, the number one target has been the churches. They have been trying to bankrupt and destroy the churches. . . It is clear that there is a war on the churches… “The question is: are we going to be hyper-materialistic governed by a demonic spirit? Or, are we going to be sovereign individuals governed by a divine intelligence? Those are the two visions.” Fitts says the reset is also about trying to get rid of President Trump and his supporters. Fitts explains, “If you look at the Covid 19 restrictions, they were clearly aimed at wiping out the businesses of millions of Trump supporters. I would describe that as covert operations coming into the elections. It’s really a war on populism because the goal of the leadership is not just to put Biden in, but to clamp down on anybody with independent revenues and independent stature who is supporting real populist policies. So, we are in the middle of the war on populism… the reset is also “the end of currencies.” She goes on to say, “It’s the death of currencies. Currency is something that is liquid. Currency is something I can put in my pocket and walk away. This is a digital control system. This is a credit at the company store. You will be given a credit at the company store, and if you do what you are told, you can buy things at the company store, but you can’t start your own store. That’s what we are watching right now in the U.S. economy. This is how it works. The insiders and their businesses are deemed essential and can stay open. Then they can do a series of things to shut down all the independent people and herd all those cash flows into theirs. So, you can’t go to church and you can’t sing, but you can stream Netflix. You can go to Costco. You can go to Walmart. . . . If the Fed and New York money center banks can make money from it, it’s essential, and you can do it. They can borrow from the Fed at 0%, and our credit cards cost 16%. This is how this works. So, this is economic warfare, and it’s designed to destroy the independent producer.”

[Pops]

Not sure what makes a Doomer see things always on the cusp. To me that is the critical balance, understanding life as we know it can change in a heartbeat while not spending my life looking for dead people.

Shit Happens is a good outlook because normalcy bias is the default human setting. If we had to decide, for example, whether or not cross traffic were going to stop for their red traffic light, we'd never get anywhere. And if cross traffic didn't believe that red light was real? If it were told in fact that red means go faster?

I realize we didn't evolve our conscious to deal with traffic lights, but you get the point, because we only have so much bandwidth, we take the expected totally for granted and ignore or even actively put up a mental block against the low odds, uncomfortable thing. Keeping an eye open to potential danger, especially after a lifetime of little to no danger is really hard. Weather warnings, unusual knocking noise in the boiler, layoff rumors, spouse "working late", POTUS discussing martial law to overthrow an election, etc go by unnoticed because they happen all the time and always come to nothing (well most of them happen all the time): right up to the time they "surprisingly" come to something.

But it looks like the thread isn't about Doomers so much as it is about Doom. Right now we should be celebrating our new digital tools, clean tech, easy lives but instead we are suffering the Boomers Reactionary Revolt. Baby Boomers were the most educated generation ever, as such they were far more liberal than their parents and able to sway opinion and policy. Educated, liberal people are generally more supportive of civil rights than conservatives. Not to say they are less biased, just that they pass more, well, liberal laws. There used to be lots of laws about adults' sex lives, about immigration, about voting restrictions, drugs/alcohol, being non-white; and lots fewer laws about abusing the commons, abusing the poor, the worker, the minority— and the non-minority—women.

But Boomers are also the Me Generation, so now we have the reaction to all that liberalness as the white, uneducated majority around the world finally reassert their grievance at no longer being the advantaged group. It is shocking/not surprising to read EU say that progressives multiculturalism is tribalizing neighborhoods and the women will soon "be ditched" —whatever that means. (maybe PO needs an incel subforum, LOL) White people are pissed that black people can move in next door, that women are bosses, that homosexuals are out and no longer punchlines. And pissed that they are called deplorable for being pissed. Simple as that.

The largest Doom Dot I see is the rift in people's perception of reality. trump and his media convinced 77% of Republicans that Biden fraudulently stole the election—with zero evidence admissible or persuasive in court. (Because uneducated people don't answer the phone, the real number is likely 99%.) What this means is they have gone over into a fantasy land totally untethered to the real world. I've been around religious people my whole life and they will stare at you clear eyed and talk about the factuality of bible miracles- and their miraculous morning toast, about "god's will", the afterlife, angels—not in metaphors or morality plays or Hallmark scenes— but as reality. The voting machines are controlled by dead Venezuelan Hugo Chavez, Russia didn't hack the US, China did, "There could also have been a hit on our ridiculous voting machines during the election"—The POTUS, "almost everyone — 85% — who got the coronavirus in July was wearing a mask"—Carlson,

The red light means "go"

.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'N')ot sure what makes a Doomer see things always on the cusp. To me that is the critical balance, understanding life as we know it can change in a heartbeat while not spending my life looking for dead people.

Shit Happens is a good outlook because normalcy bias is the default human setting. If we had to decide, for example, whether or not cross traffic were going to stop for their red traffic light, we'd never get anywhere. And if cross traffic didn't believe that red light was real? If it were told in fact that red means go faster?

I realize we didn't evolve our conscious to deal with traffic lights, but you get the point, because we only have so much bandwidth, we take the expected totally for granted and ignore or even actively put up a mental block against the low odds, uncomfortable thing. Keeping an eye open to potential danger, especially after a lifetime of little to no danger is really hard. Weather warnings, unusual knocking noise in the boiler, layoff rumors, spouse "working late", POTUS discussing martial law to overthrow an election, etc go by unnoticed because they happen all the time and always come to nothing (well most of them happen all the time): right up to the time they "surprisingly" come to something.

But it looks like the thread isn't about Doomers so much as it is about Doom. Right now we should be celebrating our new digital tools, clean tech, easy lives but instead we are suffering the Boomers Reactionary Revolt. Baby Boomers were the most educated generation ever, as such they were far more liberal than their parents and able to sway opinion and policy. Educated, liberal people are generally more supportive of civil rights than conservatives. Not to say they are less biased, just that they pass more, well, liberal laws. There used to be lots of laws about adults' sex lives, about immigration, about voting restrictions, drugs/alcohol, being non-white; and lots fewer laws about abusing the commons, abusing the poor, the worker, the minority— and the non-minority—women.

But Boomers are also the Me Generation, so now we have the reaction to all that liberalness as the white, uneducated majority around the world finally reassert their grievance at no longer being the advantaged group. It is shocking/not surprising to read EU say that progressives multiculturalism is tribalizing neighborhoods and the women will soon "be ditched" —whatever that means. (maybe PO needs an incel subforum, LOL) White people are pissed that black people can move in next door, that women are bosses, that homosexuals are out and no longer punchlines. And pissed that they are called deplorable for being pissed. Simple as that.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'F')unny I am not pissed about any of your three examples. What I am pissed off about is being blanket accused of being pissed off about those examples and any defense I raise to the charge being summarily dismissed.

[REAL Green]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'F')unny I am not pissed about any of your three examples. What I am pissed off about is being blanket accused of being pissed off about those examples and any defense I raise to the charge being summarily dismissed.

[ralfy]

"Realistic" sounds better.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'F')unny I am not pissed about any of your three examples. What I am pissed off about is being blanket accused of being pissed off about those examples and any defense I raise to the charge being summarily dismissed.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'F')unny I am not pissed about any of your three examples. What I am pissed off about is being blanket accused of being pissed off about those examples and any defense I raise to the charge being summarily dismissed.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'F')unny I am not pissed about any of your three examples. What I am pissed off about is being blanket accused of being pissed off about those examples and any defense I raise to the charge being summarily dismissed.

[mousepad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'B')ut when I express a conservative viewpoint on globalism, the anti-science stances of the D party on certain topics, or a belief in national borders being a key to economic security none of my background or the way I treat other human beings matters because it is assumed I am a deplorable-racist-sexist-homophobic-mysoginist.