PeakOil is You
The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us
Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us
by REAL Green » Fri 11 Sep 2020, 10:31:07
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'N')aturally we won't worry about all the bird bats and bugs these "renewable" systems kill, nor the environmental clean up costs, nor the vast land areas they cover compared to alternatives like Nuclear or Geothermal...
My approach on the subject for what is worth is an accelerated but rational build out combined with a manageable degrowth effort. A Green New deal is a joke. Dramatic degrowth is also a joke. The status quo is killing us. Since what will happen will be both rational and irrational plus above my pay scale I recommend an individual and local response in a orientation to a decline process. This decline process has an ever present collpase possibility both regional and global. Naturally the environment and climate have been damaged beyond human restoration but local restorations can make a big difference in places.
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us
by REAL Green » Fri 11 Sep 2020, 13:44:14
I wonder if air travel will ever return to previous levels? We may have seen peak air travel:
“How Long Will It Take For The Airline Industry To Recover?”
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/econ ... to-recover
“Estimates vary widely from 4 to 9 years depending on the source…Lehman Offers This Assessment Bureaucratic caution will lead most countries to take an additional 6-12 months after herd immunity is achieved before reopening to most inbound non-resident passengers. Even for domestic or regional travel, passengers must feel safe from infection before they’ll fly again. Countries with greater internal consumption of domestic production should recover sooner than trade-dependent countries. Accordingly, domestic travel in the US, EU, and China is likely to return sooner than in most other regions. Getting business travelers back on airplanes will require renewed economic activity, in addition to the obvious safety requirements. Improved video conferencing technologies like Zoom, Skype, and Google Meet make a similar structural shift all but inevitable as businesses learn how to operate in a COVID-impaired world where air travel is challenging and inconvenient. As long as travel demand remains depressed, supply will fall in other parts of the travel ecosystem, especially hotels. Airlines that restore capacity too quickly will see their profitability dented as too many seats chase too few passengers.Bottom line: Global air travel won’t be back to pre-COVID volume for several years I selected the above bullet points from a long article. Here is Leeham's Bottom line: "Global air travel won’t be back to pre-COVID volume for several years"
“How Long Will It Take For The Airline Industry To Recover?”
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/econ ... to-recover
“Estimates vary widely from 4 to 9 years depending on the source…Lehman Offers This Assessment Bureaucratic caution will lead most countries to take an additional 6-12 months after herd immunity is achieved before reopening to most inbound non-resident passengers. Even for domestic or regional travel, passengers must feel safe from infection before they’ll fly again. Countries with greater internal consumption of domestic production should recover sooner than trade-dependent countries. Accordingly, domestic travel in the US, EU, and China is likely to return sooner than in most other regions. Getting business travelers back on airplanes will require renewed economic activity, in addition to the obvious safety requirements. Improved video conferencing technologies like Zoom, Skype, and Google Meet make a similar structural shift all but inevitable as businesses learn how to operate in a COVID-impaired world where air travel is challenging and inconvenient. As long as travel demand remains depressed, supply will fall in other parts of the travel ecosystem, especially hotels. Airlines that restore capacity too quickly will see their profitability dented as too many seats chase too few passengers.Bottom line: Global air travel won’t be back to pre-COVID volume for several years I selected the above bullet points from a long article. Here is Leeham's Bottom line: "Global air travel won’t be back to pre-COVID volume for several years"
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us
by REAL Green » Mon 14 Sep 2020, 16:41:08
“BP Comes Clean On Energy, Admits Oil Demand Growth Is Dead”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... -Dead.html
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/ ... tlook.html
“The world is past the era of growing crude oil demand, BP said in its annual energy outlook report, which was released today. The message of the outlook, according to media reports, is that oil consumption may never recover to pre-pandemic levels, and not just because of the pandemic itself but because of factors that have been at play long before the coronavirus made the jump from bats to humans. “Demand for oil falls over the next 30 years,” the company said in the report. “The scale and pace of this decline is driven by the increasing efficiency and electrification of road transportation…Under BP’s Rapid scenario, demand for liquid fuels will drop to 55 million bpd by 2050, with the scenario also factoring in a 70-percent reduction in emissions from energy use by that year. Under the Net Zero scenario, emissions will be reduced by 95 percent by 2050, which would result in liquid fuel demand shrinking to 30 million bpd.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... -Dead.html
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/ ... tlook.html
“The world is past the era of growing crude oil demand, BP said in its annual energy outlook report, which was released today. The message of the outlook, according to media reports, is that oil consumption may never recover to pre-pandemic levels, and not just because of the pandemic itself but because of factors that have been at play long before the coronavirus made the jump from bats to humans. “Demand for oil falls over the next 30 years,” the company said in the report. “The scale and pace of this decline is driven by the increasing efficiency and electrification of road transportation…Under BP’s Rapid scenario, demand for liquid fuels will drop to 55 million bpd by 2050, with the scenario also factoring in a 70-percent reduction in emissions from energy use by that year. Under the Net Zero scenario, emissions will be reduced by 95 percent by 2050, which would result in liquid fuel demand shrinking to 30 million bpd.”
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us
by asg70 » Tue 15 Sep 2020, 13:39:00
Another datapoint in favor of peak oil DEMAND rather than supply.
Mad Max....DENIED!
Mad Max....DENIED!
BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)
HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us
by REAL Green » Thu 17 Sep 2020, 06:11:51
“The World's Last Great Oilfield: An Interview With Nick Steinsberger”
https://oilprice.com/Interviews/The-Wor ... erger.html
“Namibia’s Kavango Basin in what could very well be the world’s last-ever discovery of a massive onshore sedimentary basin. In an exclusive interview with Oilprice.com, Steinsberger reveals: Why Namibia is our best chance of a shale boom repeat Why the country’s Kavango Basin is looking like it could be the next Texas Permian Why the man who invented ‘slick-water fracking’ is ready to drill the Kavango Basin Why Reconnaissance Energy Africa (TSX: RECO.V, OTCMKTS:RECAF) is our best bet at finding the next major onshore discovery Why 120 billion boe potential is entirely feasible Why in his opinion reward far outweighs risk”
https://oilprice.com/Interviews/The-Wor ... erger.html
“Namibia’s Kavango Basin in what could very well be the world’s last-ever discovery of a massive onshore sedimentary basin. In an exclusive interview with Oilprice.com, Steinsberger reveals: Why Namibia is our best chance of a shale boom repeat Why the country’s Kavango Basin is looking like it could be the next Texas Permian Why the man who invented ‘slick-water fracking’ is ready to drill the Kavango Basin Why Reconnaissance Energy Africa (TSX: RECO.V, OTCMKTS:RECAF) is our best bet at finding the next major onshore discovery Why 120 billion boe potential is entirely feasible Why in his opinion reward far outweighs risk”
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us
by JuanP » Mon 21 Sep 2020, 21:14:31
"How much oil left in America? Not much"
http://energyskeptic.com/2020/how-much- ... -not-much/
"Last year the United States accounted for 98% of global growth in oil production. Since 2008 the number is 73%. so a slowdown or decline in U.S. oil production growth would mean trouble for the whole world. With 81 percent of global oil production now in decline, even a plateau in U.S. production would likely result in a worldwide decline (Kobb 2020)."
http://energyskeptic.com/2020/how-much- ... -not-much/
"Last year the United States accounted for 98% of global growth in oil production. Since 2008 the number is 73%. so a slowdown or decline in U.S. oil production growth would mean trouble for the whole world. With 81 percent of global oil production now in decline, even a plateau in U.S. production would likely result in a worldwide decline (Kobb 2020)."
"Human stupidity has no limits" JuanP
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us
by Tanada » Tue 22 Sep 2020, 11:50:50
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JuanP', '&')quot;How much oil left in America? Not much"
http://energyskeptic.com/2020/how-much- ... -not-much/
"Last year the United States accounted for 98% of global growth in oil production. Since 2008 the number is 73%. so a slowdown or decline in U.S. oil production growth would mean trouble for the whole world. With 81 percent of global oil production now in decline, even a plateau in U.S. production would likely result in a worldwide decline (Kobb 2020)."
http://energyskeptic.com/2020/how-much- ... -not-much/
"Last year the United States accounted for 98% of global growth in oil production. Since 2008 the number is 73%. so a slowdown or decline in U.S. oil production growth would mean trouble for the whole world. With 81 percent of global oil production now in decline, even a plateau in U.S. production would likely result in a worldwide decline (Kobb 2020)."
Once again an author is assuming facts not in evidence.
We knew, down to our cores, that the USA had peaked in 1971 and would NEVER produce more oil than it did that year. Except it turned out Fracking let us break that record about 5 years ago and we have stayed above the 1971 level ever since then.
We believe we know that because the North Sea fields went into decline around 2003 that the UK/Denmark/Norway will never produce more oil than they did in 2003. But up to this point very little attempt has been made to frack the continental land masses where these nation occupy the geography, so it is entirely possible they will all three have a bonanza of new oil to exploit when Fracking takes place. The reason it hasn't happened yet is complex, but ultimately the economics are such that so long as the USA is producing and selling cheap fracked oil world demand is met and the need for additional oil is limited making fracking in the UK et al a risky financial proposition.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us
by AdamB » Tue 22 Sep 2020, 16:28:21
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JuanP', '&')quot;How much oil left in America? Not much"
http://energyskeptic.com/2020/how-much- ... -not-much/
"Last year the United States accounted for 98% of global growth in oil production. Since 2008 the number is 73%. so a slowdown or decline in U.S. oil production growth would mean trouble for the whole world. With 81 percent of global oil production now in decline, even a plateau in U.S. production would likely result in a worldwide decline (Kobb 2020)."
http://energyskeptic.com/2020/how-much- ... -not-much/
"Last year the United States accounted for 98% of global growth in oil production. Since 2008 the number is 73%. so a slowdown or decline in U.S. oil production growth would mean trouble for the whole world. With 81 percent of global oil production now in decline, even a plateau in U.S. production would likely result in a worldwide decline (Kobb 2020)."
Alice is a riot, as only an unrepentant Happy McPeakster can be.
"Electric trucks are physically impossible!!!!!" as one of Elon's semi's zooms by....
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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