[BrianC]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us (vice.com) 218
Posted by msmash on Wednesday August 26, 2020 @08:43PM from the shape-of-things-to-come dept.
A new report suggests that over the next 30 years, at least 80% of the oil industry will be wiped out. From a news report:
The oil industry is on the cusp of a process of almost total decimation that will begin over the next 30 years, and continue through to the next century. That's the stark implication of a new forecast by a team of energy analysts led by a former US government energy advisor, seen exclusively by Motherboard. 2020, the forecast suggests, will go down in history as the final point-of-no-return for the global oil industry -- a date to which we will look back and remember how the production of oil, as well as other fossil fuels like gas and coal, underwent a slow, but inexorable and largely irreversible decline.

Along the way, some 80 percent of the industry as we know it is going to be wiped out. Of course, the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to be recognized as a principal trigger for this decline. The new era of oscillating social distancing rules and remote working has crushed once rocketing demand, at least temporarily. But in reality, the broad contours of this decline were already set in motion even before the pandemic hit. And the implications are stark: we are in the midst of a fundamental energy transition which will see the bulk of the fossil fuel industry gradually eclipsed in coming decades.

[Outcast_Searcher]

In the real world, over the next 30 years or so, much of the TRANSPORT business that currently burns hydrocarbons will move to EV's of one form or another. That's true.

However, there is NO sign that things like the very rapidly growing global trend in petro-chemicals is going to to anything but keep on trending rapidly up. COVID-19 will end (at least to a great extent) in a year or three, given vaccines, treatments, and more scientific knowledge (despite all the political FUD, conspiracy theory nonsense, etc). Global population is likely to grow a lot for at least a few more decades. 99% of poor third world people, when offered the opportunity to consume like the middle class WILL -- and there is your huge petro-chemical growth, over time.

Oil is used for a HELL of a lot more than just transport.

[asg70]

Key phrase:

"this is not an oil scarcity crisis, but a demand crisis"

Peak oil demand scares oil investors but is of no concern to joe sixpack.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BrianC', 'T')he End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us (vice.com)
https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/20/ ... is-upon-us

[REAL Green]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', ' ')now after the peak oil demand scenario. I seem to recall he also fell for peak oil scarcity...back when it was the bandwagon to be on. Nothing quite like a two faced peak oiler.

[jedrider]

Peak Oil == Peak Demand

How can it be otherwise?

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jedrider', 'P')eak Oil == Peak Demand

How can it be otherwise?

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', '
')Something we do actually know however is every barrel of oil extracted and used today is one less available in the future, and at some point we tip over from more supply than demand to more demand than available supply. That is the real peak oil. But when?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('REAL Green', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', ' ')now after the peak oil demand scenario. I seem to recall he also fell for peak oil scarcity...back when it was the bandwagon to be on. Nothing quite like a two faced peak oiler.

[REAL Green]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '[') Doomers in general are just folks looking for a means to an end, and they'll bite on whatever the bait of the day is. Guy McPherson being the most widely known example. He keeps trying to turns climate change into doom tomorrow afternoon, but has failed pretty steadily at it for years now.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('REAL Green', '
')
You optimist show how bad your unconscious angst is when you attack doomers like you do.

[REAL Green]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'O')h....I'm not so sure "attack" is the word...perhaps "gloating" might fit better?

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jedrider', 'P')eak Oil == Peak Demand
How can it be otherwise?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('REAL Green', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'H')ow many of the dooms did you fall for? Mayan calendar? The Great Dieoff of the 1980's? Peak oil (any of them)? Nibiru?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jedrider', 'P')eak Oil == Peak Demand
How can it be otherwise?

[asg70]

You're being disingenuous. The fact is that the peak oil movement framed peak oil as a supply problem, hence referencing Mad Max as our most probable future. They discounted the idea that we would leave oil before oil left us...outside of hand-wringing that we did not heed the Hirsch Report, but even then, out would come the thermodynamic analysis ala Catton to show that our population size is due to oil and no amount of substitution would prevent a population crash of some kind. They also discounted the idea that global warming would overtake peak oil as our proximate threat.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', 'Y')ou're being disingenuous.

[REAL Green]

“U.S, Shale Recovery Leans On Huge Inventory Of DUCs”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/U ... -DUCs.html

“The recovery of fracking operations in the US is happening largely thanks to an unusually high inventory of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs), which is strong enough to sustain the current level of fracking without the industry adding more rigs to expand drilling deep into 2021, a Rystad Energy analysis shows. After DUCs run out, however, rig activity in the five key oil regions needs to be in the 280-300 range to maintain flat oil output. Actual rig activity today is almost 50% lower than that requirement, but the industry still has about two to three-quarters of leverage, based on the current DUC count, to achieve a smooth transition from a DUC-driven activity phase to a regular operations mode. The Permian Basin, where the recovery in fracking has been most pronounced, can still accommodate 13 months of activity at last month’s pace. With a normal DUC-to-fracking ratio of about five months, this implies that Permian operators are carrying an inventory that is equivalent to eight months of fracking at the current pace.”

[REAL Green]

“The Best Electricity Plan: Overbuild Solar & Wind Power Plants”
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/07/th ... er-plants/

“Meanwhile, the report found that, creating more electricity than required during regular hours to meet high energy use (but during low wind hours) would have lower costs compared to storing the excess energy for higher consumption later (of course, this is based on the assumption we won’t see any storage breakthroughs in that time)…The result with regards to this study is clear: it makes even more sense to simply overbuild cheap wind and solar power plants than to try to fill in the gaps between supply and demand using fossil fuel power plants. Even leaving environmental matters out of it, it’s simply cheaper to overbuild low-cost solar and wind power plants. What seemed like a radical idea back in 2012 is gaining increasing support today. More and more people see that, indeed, solar power, wind power, and batteries have become cheap enough that you don’t need “baseload power” or other filler power plants in many places. Naturally, the precise splits in energy sources and how much they are overbuilt is something best explored for individual regions or utility districts.”

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('REAL Green', '�')��The Best Electricity Plan: Overbuild Solar & Wind Power Plants”
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/07/th ... er-plants/

“Meanwhile, the report found that, creating more electricity than required during regular hours to meet high energy use (but during low wind hours) would have lower costs compared to storing the excess energy for higher consumption later (of course, this is based on the assumption we won’t see any storage breakthroughs in that time)…The result with regards to this study is clear: it makes even more sense to simply overbuild cheap wind and solar power plants than to try to fill in the gaps between supply and demand using fossil fuel power plants. Even leaving environmental matters out of it, it’s simply cheaper to overbuild low-cost solar and wind power plants. What seemed like a radical idea back in 2012 is gaining increasing support today. More and more people see that, indeed, solar power, wind power, and batteries have become cheap enough that you don’t need “baseload power” or other filler power plants in many places. Naturally, the precise splits in energy sources and how much they are overbuilt is something best explored for individual regions or utility districts.”