[BahamasEd]

It looks like we're right on schedule with the ETP and it's MAP

The price action of WTI shows it quite clearly that the non oil extracting part of the economy can't afford to pay a high enough price that would allow the extracting, processing and delivery of oil products to it.

It's that simple, most of the oil still in the ground will stay there unless somehow you find a way to pay $100++ per barrel. The last 12 years has shown that we can't!

The best yearly average weekly price of WTI was right around $100
Average weekly price of WTI for years 2008 thru 2013 was $88.
Average weekly price of WTI for years 2014 thru 2019 was $53.

The trend is what it is and it shows no signs of changing, the price of WTI is still hitting lower lows and lower high.

I have no idea what the future will bring but the next 3 years are going to be interesting and not in a good way.

Have fun everyone.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BahamasEd', 'I')t looks like we're right on schedule with the ETP and it's MAP

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BahamasEd', 'I')t looks like we're right on schedule with the ETP and it's MAP

The price action of WTI shows it quite clearly that the non oil extracting part of the economy can't afford to pay a high enough price that would allow the extracting, processing and delivery of oil products to it.

It's that simple, most of the oil still in the ground will stay there unless somehow you find a way to pay $100++ per barrel. The last 12 years has shown that we can't!

The best yearly average weekly price of WTI was right around $100
Average weekly price of WTI for years 2008 thru 2013 was $88.
Average weekly price of WTI for years 2014 thru 2019 was $53.

The trend is what it is and it shows no signs of changing, the price of WTI is still hitting lower lows and lower high.

I have no idea what the future will bring but the next 3 years are going to be interesting and not in a good way.

Have fun everyone.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BahamasEd', 'I')t looks like we're right on schedule with the ETP and it's MAP

[Baduila]

This is the graph from the HG report, page 34, used for the WTI price projection. I see two sets of data points, one labeled 38 % and one labeled 29%. OS seems to have a problem with his eyes, beause he only sees one set.



About three years ago, i have put OS, Adam, and asg on my ignore list. They never posted anything from which i could learn something. Today, this is still valid.

[asg70]

This chart fetishism leads to the erosion of critical thinking skills.

Here's an experiment for you with min and max bounds on a prediction. If you set the min and max bounds wide enough then pretty much anything can happen inside. Voila! Instant credibility for your model! But what exactly is it predicting? Nothing. Until you go out on a limb and make a more specific, more linear prediction, you've got nothing.



And the reason Short lost his bet is that prices shot up outside of the (then) wide boundaries that he himself set, something ignored by Baidula.

So the bottom line is...in what way is ETP at all useful for studying oil depletion? It doesn't accurately predict oil prices--that's for sure--not even in a broad sense.

I stopped putting a lot of credence into projections like these after The Oil Drum called peak oil in 2005. The one or two ETP nuts here hearken back to Oil Drum nuts 15 years ago. They just never learned.

The other thing, which was my main beef with PStarr, is establishing cause and effect. There are multiple factors that cause oil prices to be high or low at any point in time. Doomers prefer to ignore anything other than geologic depletion, with classic peakers projecting prices going up with scarcity and ETPers inscrutably predicting them going down.

How this links to the chart fetish is they don't really think about what was going on in the world at each and every time-slice that generated that chart. Everything is explained away as just one thing. But think about what has REALLY happened over the last 10 years or so. The fracking glut (and it really has been a glut), the opening up of the spigots by OPEC to attack the glut. Financial problems in the euro zone. Then COVID. And creeping up slowly behind...the rise of EVs. ETPers or really any peakers clinging to simplistic models don't really look at the details. They are seeking to reduce everything down to an easily digestible "answer" for everything we see. While that's highly satisfying, that's not how the world works, not in the context of day to day or month to month oil pricing.

But anyway, the reason ETP has less credibility than ever is that it has no alternative but to converge the high and low boundaries as the predictive price reaches its termination point at $0. Even though oil prices are likely to be depressed for the foreseeable future thanks to COVID and the long tail of the economic fallout, oil isn't going to just be given away.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', 'T')his is the graph from the HG report, page 34, used for the WTI price projection. I see two sets of data points, one labeled 38 % and one labeled 29%. OS seems to have a problem with his eyes, beause he only sees one set.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '
')About three years ago, i have put OS, Adam, and asg on my ignore list. They never posted anything from which i could learn something. Today, this is still valid.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '
')About three years ago, i have put OS, Adam, and asg on my ignore list. They never posted anything from which i could learn something. Today, this is still valid.

[asg70]

Is there a smoking gun that Baduila is a Short sock-puppet?

It's not unreasonable to think there are one or two ETP nuts still keeping the faith.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', 'I')s there a smoking gun that Baduila is a Short sock-puppet?

It's not unreasonable to think there are one or two ETP nuts still keeping the faith.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', 'I')s there a smoking gun that Baduila is a Short sock-puppet?

It's not unreasonable to think there are one or two ETP nuts still keeping the faith.

[asg70]

Well, whether they're sock-puppets or cultists it doesn't really matter. I mean, ETP having 0 vs. ~2 followers?

[Baduila]

@asg

In your post from monday:

First, you ignore the fact, that the line connecting the peaks of the oil price is going down since 2008.

Second, you ignore the fact, that the average oil prices are going down since 2008.

Third, most importantly, you ignore the fact, that there is the 2nd law of thermodynamics, which tells us, that the net energy of oil production now rapidly goes to zero. Because it goes to zero, the oil price will go to zero. Why should the world economy pay for something which has no value ?

We have a law of physics, which tells us that the oil price must go down, and it goes down.

Reading and commenting posts like this is a waste of time.

[REAL Green]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', 'T')hird, most importantly, you ignore the fact, that there is the 2nd law of thermodynamics, which tells us, that the net energy of oil production now rapidly goes to zero. Because it goes to zero, the oil price will go to zero. Why should the world economy pay for something which has no value ? We have a law of physics, which tells us that the oil price must go down, and it goes down.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '
')the line connecting the peaks of the oil price is going down since 2008.
Second, you ignore the fact, that the average oil prices are going down since 2008

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '
')Third, most importantly, you ignore the fact, that there is the 2nd law of thermodynamics, which tells us, that the net energy of oil production now rapidly goes to zero. Because it goes to zero, the oil price will go to zero. Why should the world economy pay for something which has no value ?

We have a law of physics, which tells us that the oil price must go down, and it goes down.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '
')Third, most importantly, you ignore the fact, that there is the 2nd law of thermodynamics, which tells us, that the net energy of oil production now rapidly goes to zero. Because it goes to zero, the oil price will go to zero. Why should the world economy pay for something which has no value ?

We have a law of physics, which tells us that the oil price must go down, and it goes down.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '
')Third, most importantly, you ignore the fact, that there is the 2nd law of thermodynamics, which tells us, that the net energy of oil production now rapidly goes to zero. Because it goes to zero, the oil price will go to zero. Why should the world economy pay for something which has no value ?

We have a law of physics, which tells us that the oil price must go down, and it goes down.

[Yoshua]

Adam haz Conspiracy

There are now protests all around the world...and no one has a clue what's going on.

The Etp Model isn't perfect...it's just the best model out there.