Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Pandemic Thread (merged)

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Unread postby Falconoffury » Mon 11 Jul 2005, 04:37:43

They were just about to declare the disease eradicated when a group of chickens and other birds was found with the virus in Thailand.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/ ... 61/1/.html
"If humans don't control their numbers, nature will." -Pimentel
"There is not enough trash to go around for everyone," said Banrel, one of the participants in the cattle massacre.
"Bush, Bush, listen well: Two shoes on your head," the protesters chant
User avatar
Falconoffury
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 1395
Joined: Tue 25 May 2004, 03:00:00

Unread postby Menkarex » Mon 25 Jul 2005, 18:07:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PhilBiker', 'I')f Avian Flu killed 1/5 or more of the population it would be amazing. Nature would be showing us that it still can do what it's always done for population control. We couldn't do a thing about it.


I'm worried about this new hemmoragic fever killing people in China.
User avatar
Menkarex
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon 25 Jul 2005, 03:00:00

A related book that is good reading.

Unread postby Menkarex » Mon 25 Jul 2005, 18:12:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Falconoffury', 'T')hey were just about to declare the disease eradicated when a group of chickens and other birds was found with the virus in Thailand.
l


A very good novel on the topic of a global pandemic and survival after it was In The Beginning by Joe Neubarth. He didn't deal with the flu, he dealt with survivors after the flu went through. I believe the book is out of print, but you can still order one from him.

Joe_Neubarth@Yahoo.com

I ordered my book directly from him. He's a real friendly guy. Father to a host of children (about 30). He originally made up stories for his children and some of them kept on asking him to tell them more about the post pandemic world, so he wrote it down as a book. Other people read it and told him that he should have it published. Eventually, he did.
User avatar
Menkarex
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon 25 Jul 2005, 03:00:00

Unread postby oowolf » Mon 25 Jul 2005, 19:29:28

H5N1 and Ebola (EB-SZ77) have apparently "exchanged genetic information". This is rather distressing news:
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07240 ... Ebola.html
User avatar
oowolf
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 1337
Joined: Tue 09 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Big Rock Candy Mountain

Unread postby Novus » Mon 25 Jul 2005, 20:04:09

Ebola is the one virus in the world that truely scares me. Bird flu would be bad but we would deal with it. Flu has been around for generations and anyone who ever had any form of flu would have some immunity to it. Worst case senario it kills 2% of the world's population or 130 million people including 5 million americans. With Ebola no-one is immune to this thing. A major Pandemic of Ebola could wipe out 80% of the human race or more then 5 billion people. Secondary diseases from the rotting bodies could wipe out the survivors and produce posible extinction.
User avatar
Novus
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2450
Joined: Tue 21 Jun 2005, 03:00:00

Unread postby oowolf » Tue 26 Jul 2005, 17:20:23

There's already a name for "it": Flu-bola.
User avatar
oowolf
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 1337
Joined: Tue 09 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Big Rock Candy Mountain

Unread postby Falconoffury » Tue 26 Jul 2005, 17:36:51

I think the Marburg virus is even more scary than Ebola. Death rates for Marburg are near 100%. It has the potential to be worse than Plague.
"If humans don't control their numbers, nature will." -Pimentel
"There is not enough trash to go around for everyone," said Banrel, one of the participants in the cattle massacre.
"Bush, Bush, listen well: Two shoes on your head," the protesters chant
User avatar
Falconoffury
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 1395
Joined: Tue 25 May 2004, 03:00:00

China bug - Is it Ebola-like bird flu?

Unread postby Menkarex » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 10:24:40

China bug - Is it Ebola-like bird flu?
By Andy Ho
July 28, 2005
The Straits Times

CHINA's official Xinhua news agency confirmed this week earlier wire reports about the mysterious deaths of 27 farmers in several villages around the cities of Ziyang and Neijiang in Sichuan province.

Another 41 people in Sichuan have also fallen seriously ill.

All victims had been exposed to swine and developed high fever, fatigue, nausea, vomiting, and 'became comatose later with bruises under the skin', according to Xinhua. The provincial health authorities insist that 'the disease is absolutely not Sars, anthrax or bird flu'.

Instead, they ascribed the outbreak to a common swine bug called streptococcus suis. Based on information from the Chinese, the World Health Organisation (WHO) agrees that the symptoms 'seem consistent with' the diagnosis.

Could the WHO be wrong? Are the provincial authorities prevaricating?

But, first, what is this bug and why are these Sichuan cases less likely to be it? According to The Merck Veterinary Manual, this is a bacterium that lives in the noses, throats, guts and genitalia of pigs. Thus, farmers exposed to droplets of swine saliva, as well as slaughterhouse workers, butchers, and cooks who have open wounds who handle pork and pig innards could become infected.

Yet, despite its prevalence in pigs - up to 15 per cent of a herd could be carriers - human cases are rare as only one out of a total of 35 serotypes of the bacterium causes serious infections in people.

In humans, the bug invades the membranes covering the brain and spinal cord causing meningitis, with severe headaches, high fever, vomiting, confusion, stiff neck, loss of hearing and coma. There can also be bleeding from blood vessels beneath the skin, and the patient can go into toxic shock, with damage to the heart.

Sounds like the mysterious illness in Sichuan?

Note, however, that most cases have been reported in northern Europe and southern Asia, where intensive swine management practices are used, perhaps at least on the scale seen in the Pulau Bulan farm that supplies Singapore with about 6,500 pigs every week, according to the AVA. That does not sound like rural China.

Human cases have been seen in Singapore too, but they are very rare. In fact, until this Chinese claim, less than 150 human cases have been reported worldwide.

A total of 68 patients in Sichuan sounds unlikely for various other reasons too.

First, the bacterium is easily treated in pigs with penicillin. Though it can survive for long periods, it is also easily destroyed with soaps and dilute disinfectants.

Secondly, the high mortality also makes the cause somewhat less likely to be bacterial in origin, as bacterial infections are rarely as lethal.

Thirdly, the bug seems to spread between herds not only through the introduction of apparently healthy carrier pigs but also by flies, which can travel up to 2km between farms on their own. If flies got on to vehicles, they could go farther. Carcasses of dead pigs could also transport the bacteria.

But up to 75 villages are affected in Sichuan. These are clustered around 40 townships in different counties, which represent large geographical distances. This suggests the possibility of transmission by migratory birds.

Quite apart from the fear that pigs, which often carry the human flu virus, could contract bird flu and act as a 'blender' to speed up the process of its mutation, several facts suggest that the mysterious illness sounds a lot like influenza, some scientists believe.

Far-fetched?

In December 1979, the British Medical Journal published a letter from an army physician that had laid undiscovered in a trunk in Detroit for 60 years. In the 1918 letter, the doctor who was attending to soldiers in Boston during the devastating pandemic that year described in graphic detail how they were dying from the flu: 'Two hours after admission they have the mahogany spots over the cheek bones and a few hours later you can begin to see the cyanosis extending from the ears and spreading all over the face, until it is hard to distinguish the colored man from the white.

'It is only a matter of a few hours then until death comes and it is simply a struggle for air until they suffocate.' (Cyanosis is a bluish or purplish tinge to the skin.)

Note that reports described the Sichuan patients as having skin that turned very dark. Some H5N1 bird flu variants can produce bleeding under the skin. The index case in Thailand's human cases of bird flu this year was initially misdiagnosed as dengue hemorrhagic fever because of that bleeding.

What about the meningitis seen in Sichuan?

The H5N1, in fact, already has genes that can attack the brain. According to recent papers in Virology and The Journal Of Virology separately, this ability is seen in H5N1 samples isolated in 2001 and 2002 from poultry and birds in Hong Kong, and from a bird flu patient who died in the ex-colony in February 2003. Thus, it is very possible for any H5N1 circulating in mainland China to have this (neurotropic) characteristic.

Supposing it was bird flu in Sichuan, where could it have come from?

Probably from Qinghai province, just north-west of Sichuan. There, a major outbreak of bird flu occurred in April at a nature reserve, where 8,000 birds across five species - and also some mammals - died. Only in May would the Chinese authorities own up to it.

Now the weather has turned cold early at Qinghai, so birds there may have already started migrating out. Indeed, in June, China reported two outbreaks in birds at Tacheng city in Xinjiang province, which lies northwest of Qinghai. This week, there were wire reports about outbreaks in the Primorie and Chany Lake reserves in Russia, where more than 500 birds have died.

Here is the cause for concern.

When it first happened in Qinghai, an Internet daily called Boxun.com reported the outbreak, which the authorities denied. Human cases and fatalities, involving six tourists and 121 locals, were also detailed. Then, 17 of 19 Boxun reporters involved were jailed.

In May, China reported to the international authorities that there had indeed been an outbreak among birds in Qinghai but denied any human cases. Yet, it effectively hindered the WHO authorities from investigating the outbreak. Indeed, the 1.3 billion strong nation has never reported any human cases of bird flu that, since 2003, has killed at least 57 people in Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and, now, Indonesia.

The Chinese have also never reported any outbreak in Sichuan - among poultry or people. But outbreaks in Shantou, Hunan and Yunnan were not reported either.

However, we know these did occur.

A paper published in July in the journal Nature detailed the genomics of H5N1 isolated in samples taken in 2005 from Qinghai and Guangdong as well as Hunan and Yunnan.

Dr Guan Yi, a University of Hong Kong scientist, told the media that, soon after the Nature paper was published, the mainland authorities accused him of stealing state secrets.

So China considers H5N1 a state secret - the Qinghai isolates have been shown to be very virulent - perhaps because people have already been infected?

If so, we have much to fear.

The city of Ziyang where patients are dying lies close to Chengdu, the provincial capital which is 250km south-east of Qinghai.

Should human cases emerge among Chengdu's 10 million people - it has an international airport - bird flu could spread even faster.

China may not be alone in under-reporting H5N1.

In India, where pigeons died en masse on one occasion in 2004, the blood of poultry workers collected in 2002 shows antibodies to H5N1. Officially, though, India has no H5N1. This month's first human cases in Indonesia, with two deaths, may be linked to trips made to India and Hong Kong.

Alas, this stonewalling can kill as the H5N1 acquires more lethal genes - like Ebola genes.

Although it has never been officially seen outside Africa, the intrepid Boxun.com reported last April an Ebola outbreak in Shenzen, next to Hong Kong, which the authorities denied. Now, Boxun sources tell them that the Sichuan outbreak is the rapidly evolving Ebola SZ-77 strain which can infect birds, so it may be tied to bird flu at Qinghai.

Incredible? Pittsburgh-based genomics expert Henry Niman told The Straits Times he has noticed a gene in H5N1 'that is an exact match for an Ebola gene. So it is possible that a dual infection in birds or people may be leading to a new H5N1 - or a new Ebola virus.'

Yes, a swap between bird flu and ebola viruses can happen. Dr Niman said: 'They just need to be in the same host cell.'

Let's hope this has not really happened yet. Otherwise, we could all be in the same boat, a rapidly leaking one at that.

andyho@sph.com.sg
User avatar
Menkarex
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon 25 Jul 2005, 03:00:00

Unread postby EnergySpin » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 10:54:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'E')bola is the one virus in the world that truely scares me. Bird flu would be bad but we would deal with it. Flu has been around for generations and anyone who ever had any form of flu would have some immunity to it. Worst case senario it kills 2% of the world's population or 130 million people including 5 million americans. With Ebola no-one is immune to this thing. A major Pandemic of Ebola could wipe out 80% of the human race or more then 5 billion people. Secondary diseases from the rotting bodies could wipe out the survivors and produce posible extinction.

No the different modes of transmission make Flu more serious than Ebola. Ebola virus spreads with direct close contact; Marburg has the same mode of transmission. Basic epidemiology measures could help curtail the epidemic. The people who would suffer is the biomedical community (nurses, physicians and associated health personel) due to the nature of their work. But you are right most of the people who get the virus will die; turns internal organs in pulp and people bleed to death. A picture of the devil it self:
EBOLA
Image
MARBURG
Image
INFLUENZA
Image

Ebola btw is a filovirus , flu is an orthomyxovirus. More about viruses can be found in UV Madison's web site, full of microscopy images and molecular simulations of whole virions.
Link is here
Last edited by EnergySpin on Sat 30 Jul 2005, 12:28:19, edited 1 time in total.
"Nuclear power has long been to the Left what embryonic-stem-cell research is to the Right--irredeemably wrong and a signifier of moral weakness."Esquire Magazine,12/05
The genetic code is commaless and so are my posts.
User avatar
EnergySpin
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2248
Joined: Sat 25 Jun 2005, 03:00:00

Unread postby Eli » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 12:24:50

Yeah Novus


The Flu is much worse than Ebola. There is no human resistance to h5n1 bird flu. Also being a virus medical technology is not going to be of much help. Ebola tends to burn it self out rather than spread.



We have gotten very good at treating bacterial infections but viral infections occur and are much harder to treat. We have not gotten that much better at stooping viral infections. Think of things like pink eye. It is a viral infection of the eye. It spreads very easy and if you go to your Md for treatment he will give you some drops but basically they will tell you it will go away in a week to 2 weeks they can't stop the infection they just let it run its course. That is how the flu is treated too.

There is absolutely nothing to stop a pandemic like the one that happened during the Spanish flu out break. And with our modern travel system the virus had the ability to travel farther faster.

Also silent carriers with the Flu allow it to spread and infect people without them even realizing they are spreading the flu.

Modern medicine can only treat the symptoms of the flu and this bug is very very bad and quickly overwhelms modern treatments. The people who have not died also needed extensive stays in hospital.

The US has only 1 million total hospital beds our health care system will be easily overwhelmed by a pandemic like the Spanish Flu.
User avatar
Eli
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3709
Joined: Sat 18 Jun 2005, 03:00:00
Location: In a van down by the river

Unread postby EnergySpin » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 12:27:00

Hm... searching my digital library I found this gem.
The journal Emerging Infectious Diseases published by CDC in Atlanta featured an article 1 1/2 years ago which tried to predict the geographic distribution of HFRS filoviridae using geospatial and epidemiologic modeling tools. The article can be read at the EID website by clicking here
One of the predictions of the article was that the distribution of naturally occuring filovirus ecovirological niches extends throughout SE Asia (CLICK ME :twisted:). Taking into account in vitro data regarding potential positive feedback interactions between the two viruses it is possible but not very likely that the Chinese are dealing with a HFRS / Influenza co-infection (with an Ebola strain "helping" a weak flu strain propagate in the population. Now the apocalyptic scenario i.e. an HFRS virus spreading via respiration (or a cross mix between Ebola/Influenza) is extremely unlikely as it would require a tripple infection of avian species (i.e. Ebola, Influenza, and an avian retrovirus to help with copying and pasting genes together). The scarry part is that this scenario is possible at least biochemically as researches from Purdue showed here

Anyone cares for Chinese tonight ? :twisted: :twisted:
"Nuclear power has long been to the Left what embryonic-stem-cell research is to the Right--irredeemably wrong and a signifier of moral weakness."Esquire Magazine,12/05
The genetic code is commaless and so are my posts.
User avatar
EnergySpin
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2248
Joined: Sat 25 Jun 2005, 03:00:00

Unread postby EnergySpin » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 12:56:00

While I'm trying to put together a scientific scenario, fucked up Evangelists have had the answer for YEARS 8O 8O
Fucked Up Evangelist Rant :-D :-D
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')et us consider here three diseases that are a threat to mankind: AIDS, Ebola, and Influenza. The virus that causes AIDS, HIV, was discovered in the year 1983, so therefore associate AIDS with the number 83. The galaxy M83 is in the constellation Hydra, which was a multi-headed serpent in mythology that kept growing a new head, each time a head was cut off. This sounds like AIDS, which keeps mutating to allow it to get around any treatment or vaccine. The Hydra was defeated by Hercules, by his nephew Iolaus burning each of the mortal heads as Hercules cut them off, and burying the immortal head under a stone. I wonder if this mythology story could somehow be a clue on how to treat AIDS? Note that the AIDS virus has 9213=111x83 bits of genetic information, so again the number 83. Note that the Hydra mythology also applies to Osama bin Laden's terrorist network, which seems to keep regrowing itself in new countries after it was eliminated in Afghanistan.
Ebola, a lethal disease of Africa that kills in two weeks of infection, had its virus discovered in 1976, so if we associate galaxy M76 with it, we are near the constellation Andromeda. Remember the movie "Andromeda Strain" about a lethal disease that threatened humanity? That could be Ebola if it mutates to an airborne form.
Influenza or "Flu" was discovered in 1933. Galaxy M33 is in the constellation Triangulum. That may imply we should look for a triangle. The numbers 33, 76, and 83 do form a right (90 degree) triangle with an angle of 66 degrees.


:-D :-D :-D :-D
That guy should receive some serious (intensive) psychiatric help. Bible, Numerology, Sci Fi movies and the Antichrist Beast together.
Doomerosity Level 1: I will be able to fuel the global economy by thermally depolymerizing people who write texts like the one above. Morons: a new clean renewable source for an energy scarce future :roll:
Last edited by EnergySpin on Sat 30 Jul 2005, 18:33:50, edited 1 time in total.
"Nuclear power has long been to the Left what embryonic-stem-cell research is to the Right--irredeemably wrong and a signifier of moral weakness."Esquire Magazine,12/05
The genetic code is commaless and so are my posts.
User avatar
EnergySpin
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2248
Joined: Sat 25 Jun 2005, 03:00:00

Unread postby julianj » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 18:26:12

ROFL Energy Spin. My Solylent Green's an Evangelist and he surely tastes good!
julianj
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 913
Joined: Thu 30 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: On one of the blades of the fan

Unread postby EnergySpin » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 18:32:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('julianj', 'R')OFL Energy Spin. My Solylent Green's an Evangelist and he surely tastes good!

julianj .... this reminds me of the Biofuel debate.
You want to use the evangelicals for food, I want to use them for energy.
Can't we reach an understanding :roll: ? you get to keep the meat and I can turn their internals in EvangeloDiesel?
It is pitty to waste this renewable energy source :)
"Nuclear power has long been to the Left what embryonic-stem-cell research is to the Right--irredeemably wrong and a signifier of moral weakness."Esquire Magazine,12/05
The genetic code is commaless and so are my posts.
User avatar
EnergySpin
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2248
Joined: Sat 25 Jun 2005, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Influenza Pandemic Coming This Fall?

Unread postby pandemie » Sun 21 Aug 2005, 12:35:30

Looks like H5N1 is really starting to show up in lots of places in Russia and Kazahkstan.
User avatar
pandemie
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 2
Joined: Sun 21 Aug 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Influenza Pandemic Coming This Fall?

Unread postby entropyfails » Mon 22 Aug 2005, 23:40:28

Did anyone else read Betrayal of Trust: The Collapse of Global Public Health by Laurie Garrett ?

Peak Oil may end up being a non issue as we clean up the corpses from the next pandemic. And it WILL happen as long as we continue to disregard our public health infrastructure.

And for a very small amount of money in relativistic terms, none of this has to happen.

Sad, sad, sad.
EntropyFails
"Little prigs and three-quarter madmen may have the conceit that the laws of nature are constantly broken for their sakes." -- Friedrich Nietzsche
User avatar
entropyfails
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 565
Joined: Wed 30 Jun 2004, 03:00:00

Re: Influenza Pandemic Coming This Fall?

Unread postby Menkarex » Tue 08 Nov 2005, 12:14:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pandemie', 'L')ooks like H5N1 is really starting to show up in lots of places in Russia and Kazahkstan.
Numerous outbreaks in Russia, China, Mongolia and the numerous Turkic Republics being reported as just "pneumonia." Well, that is what most often kills you, but it has to have an initiator. In this case, I think it is Sichuan Sheet.

In India they have had numerous outbreaks of "mystery illnesses" People are dying by the hundreds of gastroenteritis, pneumonia, meningitis or encephalitis which could, in fact, be H5N1 Sichuan Sheet (or could be H3N2, or...). Without testing specifically for H5N1 there would be no way to tell. India, Myanmar, Laos, Malaysia and Cambodia refuse to test. The money is not in the budget to do so.

Africa is reporting many outbreaks of suspected Newcastle Disease in all of their chickens. All we know for certain is that a reliable protein source in the diets of millions of Africans is disappearing as this new wave of "Newcastle" sweeps across the continent and kills village chickens.

African countries are now experiencing unknown disease outbreaks in animals and people. Fatalities are being reported in increasing numbers for any number of causes, but there is no testing for H5N1 Sichuan Sheet; because, again, there is no money in the budget. In most cases, there is no budget for money to be put in to.

All of these outbreaks are like sparks from a big kitchen match that is not lighting easily. As you strike it, you get these sparks, but no big flareup. You try again and again and get lots of sparks (little regional breakouts that run and weaken), and eventually you get the flareup on the match head and the fire is underway (Global Pandemic).
User avatar
Menkarex
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon 25 Jul 2005, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Influenza Pandemic Coming This Fall?

Unread postby arun » Thu 19 Jan 2006, 09:39:10

Hi friends
One day i and my friend was going there the market, first we had done shopping there after that we meat a person, he started talk about bird flu
After listening that person's view, we felt that he have got lot of knowledge and he told us Tami flu drug that it is very important drug in bird flu cases for more see- http://www.drugdelivery.ca/s3353-s-tamiflu.aspx this url will help you lot
.
User avatar
arun
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 1
Joined: Thu 19 Jan 2006, 04:00:00

Re: Influenza Pandemic Coming This Fall?

Unread postby worrier » Mon 23 Jan 2006, 19:10:00

In the past I have read that some experts believe that the majority of deaths in "the black death" was not caused by bubonic plague but was actually some sort of hemoragic (sp?) fever. This hasn't been proved though, just speculation. I heard a flu expert on TV say that the bird flu infection in humans sometimes resembles a hemoragic fever from the devestating effect it has on the organs, he's a NZ flu expert, forgotten his name. I've wondered if it's possible that a large number of the deaths in the black death were actually a flu pandemic rather than plague. I've no proof or evidence for this by the way, it's just speculation.
User avatar
worrier
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 138
Joined: Tue 15 Nov 2005, 04:00:00
Location: New Zealand

Re: Influenza Pandemic Coming This Fall?

Unread postby UIUCstudent01 » Thu 26 Jan 2006, 05:43:39

User avatar
UIUCstudent01
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 838
Joined: Thu 10 Mar 2005, 04:00:00

PreviousNext

Return to Medical Issues Forum

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests

cron