by AdamB » Mon 13 Jul 2020, 18:21:43
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')
Predicting the future is hard. The main difference is, as the EIA themselves have demonstrated, is that some learn why they were wrong, and do better next time.
The EIA does it the easy way. Extrapolation of past trend into the future. Easy, boring and correct most of the time. And if still wrong, they adjust the curve a bit lower or higher.
Supply side NEMS isn't a trend predictor. It is a wild, open source, competition of resources against resources scheme. The short term outlook uses legacy information and legacy well drilling with some price relationship, so has some trends involved. DPR not so much, but it does use current information. The newer supply side model of the IEO has nothing to do with trends. Resource based and terribly intriguing. They did a demo of it back in 2017 at an international conference. Did you get this silly idea about simple trend analysis from them, or did you just make it up? They do presentations on this stuff, they even used to have conferences. Met Mike Lynch there a few years ago, when he was..you guessed it!...yucking it up over the quality of trend analysis of those using bell shaped curves.
Any reason you decided not to check before making a blanket statement that is mostly wrong?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '
')Doomers try to predict major changing events. That's hard (=impossible), but exciting. It's 2 different types of prediction.
Sounds like you know as little about doomers as you EIA models. Doomers spew nonsense continuously, hoping that sooner or later it comes true. That isn't predicting, it is just the broken clock routine. Simmons, Ruppert, Savinar, Heinberg,Armie,Shorty, etc etc.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '
')The EIA predicts that you're going to be alive next year because you're alive this year. The doomer predicts you be dead next year.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
by mousepad » Tue 14 Jul 2020, 07:11:40
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')Did you get this silly idea about simple trend analysis from them, or did you just make it up? They do presentations on this stuff, they even used to have conferences
I just made it up. And I'm sure they have presentation and conferences on it.
There's even presentation and conferences on the latest and greatest knitting technique developed by grandmothers worldwide. Everybody has conferences. I think they even have doomer conferences.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')Any reason you decided not to check before making a blanket statement that is mostly wrong?
Yeah. The reason I didn't check was because this is just a forum for leisurely discussion and chatter. Fun most of the times, interesting and informative sometimes, and obnoxious once-in-a-while. But mostly fun.
You on the other hand seem to take this expert-prediction business very seriously.
The way you defend the experts, you seem to be one of them yourself.
You don't have to justify your job with me. Thank you for doing a fine job predicting. No, sorry, modelling.
by AdamB » Tue 14 Jul 2020, 18:45:06
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JuanP', '&')quot;US shale oil output to drop to two year low of 7.5 Mbpd in August: EIA"
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... 4E2K1?il=0"Shale CEO: US has passed Peak Oil"
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... ews+Update)
US has passed peak oil!
AGAIN!!!Any opinion on how many more there could be?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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by AdamB » Tue 14 Jul 2020, 18:50:15
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')Any reason you decided not to check before making a blanket statement that is mostly wrong?
Yeah. The reason I didn't check was because this is just a forum for leisurely discussion and chatter.
[/quote]
Fair enough.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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by Outcast_Searcher » Sat 01 Aug 2020, 15:16:10
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')
Predicting the future is hard. The main difference is, as the EIA themselves have demonstrated, is that some learn why they were wrong, and do better next time.
The EIA does it the easy way. Extrapolation of past trend into the future. Easy, boring and correct most of the time. And if still wrong, they adjust the curve a bit lower or higher.
Doomers try to predict major changing events. That's hard (=impossible), but exciting. It's 2 different types of prediction.
The EIA predicts that you're going to be alive next year because you're alive this year. The doomer predicts you be dead next year.
First, unless you have sufficient reliable data or information to predict that the trend in place is going to rapidly change -- predicting the trend in place is rather reasonable. Kind of like Occam's Razor.
Second, given the doomer's track record, and the (analogy considered) odds that person X under, say, 90 years old lives another year vs. dies next year (especially due to random predictions without meaningful evidence), I'll take those who use actual credible historical data/trends EVERY SINGLE TIME, until "expert doomers" PROVE why I shouldn't.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
by mousepad » Sat 01 Aug 2020, 15:25:15
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')
Predicting the future is hard. The main difference is, as the EIA themselves have demonstrated, is that some learn why they were wrong, and do better next time.
The EIA does it the easy way. Extrapolation of past trend into the future. Easy, boring and correct most of the time. And if still wrong, they adjust the curve a bit lower or higher.
Doomers try to predict major changing events. That's hard (=impossible), but exciting. It's 2 different types of prediction.
The EIA predicts that you're going to be alive next year because you're alive this year. The doomer predicts you be dead next year.
First, unless you have sufficient reliable data or information to predict that the trend in place is going to rapidly change -- predicting the trend in place is rather reasonable. Kind of like Occam's Razor.
No doubt. But it's do damn boring. I prefer exciting doomer predictions. I mean, what's life without some excitement?
by Outcast_Searcher » Sat 01 Aug 2020, 15:34:04
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')
Predicting the future is hard. The main difference is, as the EIA themselves have demonstrated, is that some learn why they were wrong, and do better next time.
The EIA does it the easy way. Extrapolation of past trend into the future. Easy, boring and correct most of the time. And if still wrong, they adjust the curve a bit lower or higher.
Doomers try to predict major changing events. That's hard (=impossible), but exciting. It's 2 different types of prediction.
The EIA predicts that you're going to be alive next year because you're alive this year. The doomer predicts you be dead next year.
First, unless you have sufficient reliable data or information to predict that the trend in place is going to rapidly change -- predicting the trend in place is rather reasonable. Kind of like Occam's Razor.
No doubt. But it's do damn boring. I prefer exciting doomer predictions. I mean, what's life without some excitement?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
by AdamB » Mon 10 Aug 2020, 17:38:24
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jedrider', 'F')racking was always a bad deal. It hid peak oil for the last decade.
The Bakken Boom Goes Bust With No Money to Clean up the Messhttps://www.desmogblog.com/2020/08/08/bakken-fracking-oil-boom-bust-hess-cleanupPeak oil is peak oil. Making MORE than the last peak oil doesn't hide anything,it creates a new peak oil.
As far as a single 70+ year old completion technique being a bad deal, tell it to the domestic and international consumers who have benefited heartily from all the new oil and natural gas production. Not that they care of course, but they do care about the abundance and price at which it was provided.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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AdamB
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by AdamB » Tue 11 Aug 2020, 23:28:00
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
On the phenomenology of "Peak Oil"
it should be kept in mind that any given well , a fields , a province of production will (and has ) experience Peak Production
the global Peak metric remain the same however absolute number of liquid hydrocarbon which will be distributed after extraction
Interesting. And known since slightly after the dawn of the oil field. Isn't it amazing that such a simple, known thing could be spun into the phenomenology of doomerology spanning decades now (if not longer!).
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sparky', '
')for a long time I had this idea that the Peak
- would be around 100Mb/d more or less
- that it would be due to production problem
- and that one of the first indicator would be a decrease in Air Transport
Time will tell
Have a link to when you announced these conditions?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
