Peak Oil
Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Opening Up the Economy Pt. 3

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL
Post a reply

Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 3

Postby asg70 » Fri 10 Jul 2020, 12:12:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')Letting the virus mostly run and damn most of the consequences is more of a right wing approach.


It's not left vs. right so much as it's Malthusian.

BTW, the world now vs. when NYC was first dealing with COVID is quite different. Early on experts were actually discouraging the use of masks by the general public saying it wouldn't help enough. How much of that had to do with trying to prevent mask shortages and how much actually reflected their thinking about transmission is up for debate, but because people have such a short memory everyone seems to have forgotten. Actually, even Trump cites this as reason not to bother with masks (which is false logic, but it's at least a reminder). The lack of mask use may not have been the only factor in NYC having a breakout infection but it was a big one. Other factors are demographic/geographic which are not within the Mayor or Governor's control. It's only natural that a dense cosmopolitan region like NY would get hit first and rural states like Wyoming wouldn't.

Anyway, fast-forward to June when states were deciding to open back up and there are really no extenuating circumstances. The governors should have known better, and frankly, the public too.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
asg70
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 4289
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 14:17:28
Top

Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 3

Postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 10 Jul 2020, 14:01:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', ' ')Letting the virus mostly run and damn most of the consequences is more of a right wing approach.


Why do you say that?

Well, let's see.

The right wing mostly is the science denial crowd.

The right wing leads the "the virus is a hoax" nonsense.

The right wing leads the "I won't wear a mask because "freedumb" movement.

The right wing leads the "We must open the economy ASAP, and the virus isn't much of a threat anyway" movement.

The red states proportionally are FAR worse now with the runaway case rates due to the early opening policies. (Yes, CA is bad, but it's a blue exception compared to a whole list of bad red states with worse rates of new cases per capita).

Trump, who represents the GOP and is loved by the far right, is the most blatant example of science denial and medical advice denial and virus reality denial that anyone could want, as a poster-boy example of the right being the "letting the virus mostly run and damn most of the consequences is more of a right wing approach."

...

How's that for a quick off the top of my head list, for starters?

...

And yes, as I've repeatedly said, NYC and NY state weren't without fault re early-on policies. Of course, you repeatedly ignore that back then, MUCH less was known about what was going on. (And to be fair, the dems ignore that re early Trump moves, as well).

But what the hell is the excuse NOW? We know a LOT more now, and Trump followers STILL often deny the virus is real. How the hell could anyone who isn't a mental patient actually believe the virus isn't real?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 10142
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42
Location: Central KY
Top

Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 3

Postby vtsnowedin » Fri 10 Jul 2020, 14:37:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he right wing leads the "We must open the economy ASAP, and the virus isn't much of a threat anyway" movement.

Yes we must open the economy ASAP as to not do so is far worse then the threat from the virus. As large as the real virus threat is, it does not threaten the lives and livelihoods of 100 million people and the lockdowns do as well as threatening to bankrupt the whole country and every State and local government.
At present during what you describe as a horrendous failure we have 134 thousand deaths out of a population of 332 million Americans for 0.04percent.
This in a country that normally has 7750 deaths each day or 2.8 million a year just to keep even with the birth rate.
It could be five or ten times worse and we would still have to open the economy to save the rest of us.
That is not denying science in any way just using science and math to determine the best course of action.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 14897
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 3

Postby JuanP » Fri 10 Jul 2020, 15:10:22

My favorite Miami restaurant closed today until September. All the employees were laid off. The owner had managed to keep all the employees receiving an equivalent to their normal income until now through a combination of salaries, grants, loans, gifts, and unemployment benefits, but as of today those employees are on their own. The restaurant owner got all the employees together yesterday and told them that this was necessary to be able to stay in business and reopen later on; he had no better choice. I expect this restaurant to make it even if 90% of independent restaurants in Miami go broke. This is survival of the fittest at its best.
"Human stupidity has no limits" JuanP
JuanP
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1957
Joined: Sat 16 Aug 2014, 15:06:32
Top

Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 3

Postby asg70 » Fri 10 Jul 2020, 17:09:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JuanP', 'M')y favorite Miami restaurant closed today until September. All the employees were laid off. The owner had managed to keep all the employees receiving an equivalent to their normal income until now through a combination of salaries, grants, loans, gifts, and unemployment benefits, but as of today those employees are on their own. The restaurant owner got all the employees together yesterday and told them that this was necessary to be able to stay in business and reopen later on; he had no better choice. I expect this restaurant to make it even if 90% of independent restaurants in Miami go broke. This is survival of the fittest at its best.


And those who were whining about how much damage to the economy locking down does, if these states had just bitten the bullet and DONE IT PROPERLY it would have been winding up now just like in the northeast. But by being dragged kicking and screaming back into lockdown they will be pushing a LOT more small business into bankruptcy, thus causing more economic damage that they were supposedly trying to avoid.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
asg70
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 4289
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 14:17:28
Top

Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 3

Postby JuanP » Fri 10 Jul 2020, 17:20:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JuanP', 'M')y favorite Miami restaurant closed today until September. All the employees were laid off. The owner had managed to keep all the employees receiving an equivalent to their normal income until now through a combination of salaries, grants, loans, gifts, and unemployment benefits, but as of today those employees are on their own. The restaurant owner got all the employees together yesterday and told them that this was necessary to be able to stay in business and reopen later on; he had no better choice. I expect this restaurant to make it even if 90% of independent restaurants in Miami go broke. This is survival of the fittest at its best.


And those who were whining about how much damage to the economy locking down does, if these states had just bitten the bullet and DONE IT PROPERLY it would have been winding up now just like in the northeast. But by being dragged kicking and screaming back into lockdown they will be pushing a LOT more small business into bankruptcy, thus causing more economic damage that they were supposedly trying to avoid.


Absolutely! And I expect this to happen again and again down here. The vast majority of people and businesses got by the first time, mostly thanks to government help and savings, but now the government help is gone and most people's savings have been spent. If the government doesn't help again then the economic damage will be very significant this time. And every new wave will be worse than the one before.

I think both the governments and the people are responsible. The governments didn't enforce the lockdowns and the mask wearing and distancing rules, and the people did whatever they wanted to do because there were no consequences for breaking the rules.
"Human stupidity has no limits" JuanP
JuanP
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1957
Joined: Sat 16 Aug 2014, 15:06:32
Top

Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 3

Postby shortonoil » Fri 10 Jul 2020, 18:14:40

As Russia begins final stage of coronavirus vaccine trial, volunteers are confirmed to have immunity – and no side effects
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')t the end of June, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu reported that trials should be over by the end of July. If completed successfully, it is planned that the vaccine will be registered in August and immediately put into mass production.


The Russians now have a working vaccine for COVID-19. The cold ware is over, and the Russians won. The face masks can go in the garbage, and the social distancing into the history books. The Russians have saved modern civilization, or what's left of it. Vlad and Trump seem to get along pretty well, so it should be here soon. From Russia with love!
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 7132
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: VA USA
Top

Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 3

Postby shortonoil » Fri 10 Jul 2020, 18:28:58

As Russia begins final stage of coronavirus vaccine trial, volunteers are confirmed to have immunity – and no side effects
https://www.rt.com/russia/494361-covid1 ... nal-stage/

Now we get to find out who the perpetrators of this hoax are; they will be working hard to stall the vaccine's use in the US. Dr. FrankenFauci (big Pharm's favorite pimp) will be declaring that it can't be used because it causes warts, and nasal drip. He will get the children in there some place.
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 7132
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: VA USA
Top

Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 3

Postby shortonoil » Fri 10 Jul 2020, 18:54:40

As Russia begins final stage of coronavirus vaccine trial, volunteers are confirmed to have immunity – and no side effects
https://www.rt.com/russia/494361-covid1 ... nal-stage/

It is ironic that tiny little Russia solved the SARS vaccine problem in 8 months when the big $trillion US Pharm industry couldn't solve it in 20 years. It is also ironic that the same big US Pharm hasn't produced a cure for a disease in 50 years, but have created a million high priced treatments. The US moved Hitler's AG Fabian cartel into the US after the war; Putin moved them out of Russia.
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 7132
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: VA USA
Top

Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 3

Postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 11 Jul 2020, 05:01:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he right wing leads the "We must open the economy ASAP, and the virus isn't much of a threat anyway" movement.

Yes we must open the economy ASAP as to not do so is far worse then the threat from the virus. As large as the real virus threat is, it does not threaten the lives and livelihoods of 100 million people and the lockdowns do as well as threatening to bankrupt the whole country and every State and local government.
At present during what you describe as a horrendous failure we have 134 thousand deaths out of a population of 332 million Americans for 0.04percent.
This in a country that normally has 7750 deaths each day or 2.8 million a year just to keep even with the birth rate.
It could be five or ten times worse and we would still have to open the economy to save the rest of us.
That is not denying science in any way just using science and math to determine the best course of action.

Sigh, and you keep IGNORING all consequences but deaths. There are huge tolls in terms of lifetime maiming, long term serious illness, and significant financial tolls as well among people who don't die.

We don't have to open the economy irresponsibly and cause it to run rampant, like the early opening states have done. People won't die if they can't dine at indoor restaurants and congregate in bars, clubs, etc. We can have a partially open economy and keep things like factory production, food production, etc. mostly running to let society function without killing people in job lots by overrunning hospital capacity, etc.

It would appear that places like NY and NJ are doing things far better re patience and science re opening than the places causing massive flare-ups.

And like it or not, it looks like the death rates are now going to accelerate to some extent in the US, given the huge case rates, as a number of folks like me and Dobhoi and ASG have been pointing out is inevitable in time if the US case rate rises quickly enough.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/coronav ... izona.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Covid-19 fatalities have steadily ticked up across the nation with the average number of fatalities a day rising over the last three straight days to over 600 on July 9, based on a seven-day average of daily reported deaths, driven by surges in several hot spots. Epidemiologists say it is cause for concern that deaths are beginning to accelerate again, even if it’s just a few days of data.

U.S. officials and the general public should have seen the rise in deaths coming, Larry Levitt, executive vice president for health policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation, told CNBC. Deaths tend to lag new cases because it can take weeks for a patient to get sick enough to be hospitalized and eventually die.

“This was predictable. We seem to have had difficulty in this country looking a few weeks in advance,” Levitt said. “But we know the pattern that as more people get infected, more people get hospitalized and ultimately more people die.”


Red text mine, for emphasis.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 10142
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42
Location: Central KY
Top

Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 3

Postby vtsnowedin » Sat 11 Jul 2020, 07:24:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')igh, and you keep IGNORING all consequences but deaths. There are huge tolls in terms of lifetime maiming, long term serious illness, and significant financial tolls as well among people who don't die.

We don't have to open the economy irresponsibly and cause it to run rampant, like the early opening states have done.

No I am not ignoring those lingering effects. They also only effect a small number of those infected so are still outweighed by the damage being done by the lockdowns. And I am not saying we should "Irresponsibly" throw open the economy with no precautions taken.
While it is true we don't need to eat at restaurants the former employees need a new job to pay their bills.
And we can't continue with schools closed or being open just a few days a week as that prevents the parent from having a full time job.
The better question is just how to reopen the economy responsibly and returning to full lockdowns is not the correct answer to that question.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 14897
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 3

Postby Newfie » Sat 11 Jul 2020, 08:59:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('REAL Green', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('suxs', ' ')yet you project the exact same "qualities" regarding any criticism of Trump.


You mistake extremist liberal criticism for Trump support. This is typical Trump derangement of the cancel culture. I am an original liberal not the wokster crap of today’s liberal. Your extremism is tearing apart the country in lies and I am exposing these lies in my own little way. I will not vote this year because the choices are so bad. If Biden wins this will be culmination of the worst political machine I have ever dreamed possible. Obama gate, Hillary sham, and The white collar rapist criminal with dementia Biden.


Real,

Think you expressed that well. There is little in the current “liberal” media darlings that overlaps with my liberal past.

The problem with the Democrat party is that it has no guiding principles beyond “defeat Trump”. It’s the only thing they can agree upon. And if they have a massive sweep in the fall there will be massive turmoil as they turn on one another and self destruct. I fear that the most aggressive and oppressive faction will push their way to the top which will make today’s shit show look like a Sunday parade.

Not ideas I’m wedded to but more gut feelings.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 18651
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Between Canada and Carribean
Top

Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 3

Postby Newfie » Sat 11 Jul 2020, 09:15:35

To those saying NYC had the virus early and didn’t know how to react.

It came from China, 30/M. The seemed to figure it out real early, which is curious, except they are asian and no asian country has suffered. But they sure made it sound scary.

Then it hit Italy very hard.

Then it moved into the USA pacific NW region who seemed to do much better.

Only AFTER all of that did it move to NYC and become the problem it is.

This is not an entirely satisfying answer nor is it meant to be. Just a reminder that the “early” excuse doesn’t seem to fit all the acts.

I get that deBlasio had very difficult decisions like closing schools, which would eventually be worse. Como’s decisions re the aged is not defendable and may well constitute manslaughter. That Como and deBlasio continue to battle is not good, nor is deBlasio’s absurd decisions to allow BLM protests while shutting down parades and such.

NYC is a outlier in this pandemic and may represent a worst case scenario, a do nothing situation or close to.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 18651
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Between Canada and Carribean
Top

Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 3

Postby REAL Green » Sat 11 Jul 2020, 09:16:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'A')nd if they have a massive sweep in the fall there will be massive turmoil as they turn on one another and self destruct. I fear that the most aggressive and oppressive faction will push their way to the top which will make today’s shit show look like a Sunday parade. Not ideas I’m wedded to but more gut feelings.


You nailed it Newf. I am all for a change from Trump. If one gets away from blame game on both sides and just looks at what we have now then we can say Trump is just too upsetting for the US status quo. I would welcome a change to something less polarizing. Yet, what I am seeing out of the liberal left is terrifying. They want to destroy as a policy. They want to cancel as a policy. They want to promote anger, resentment, and hate to achieve power. They have become what they act like they are preaching against and that is fascist thugs.

We now face a radical future of swings of public opinion. You can be sure if the liberal left gains power a backlash will occur immediately from the right. Turmoil is all I see ahead. The funny thing is the rich liberals supporting this face some of the worst consequences. They think they can control these masses but they just opened the pen for the animals to run free.

My liberalism comes from honest science and honest debate. I am an egalitarian and environmentalist. I am not wokster cancel culture and safe spaces for pussies.
realgreenadaptation.blog
User avatar
REAL Green
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1080
Joined: Thu 09 Apr 2020, 05:29:28
Location: MO Ozarks
Top

Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 3

Postby vtsnowedin » Sat 11 Jul 2020, 09:29:30

The odds are we will have a fully Democrat government come January and Covid and the economy will then be fully in their hands. The establishment Dems will realize that if they let the far left have free reign they will create a backlash that will hand back the house or Senate in 2022 and house, senate and white house in 2024.
For the first two years the struggle will be within the party mostly behind closed doors and it will be how to hand the far left enough to keep their votes while not messing up everything else to the point they lose the voters in the center.
It's going to be like herding cats.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 14897
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 3

Postby shortonoil » Sat 11 Jul 2020, 09:40:27

As Russia begins final stage of coronavirus vaccine trial, volunteers are confirmed to have immunity – and no side effects
https://www.rt.com/russia/494361-covid1 ... nal-stage/

There is a working vaccine for COVID-19, and not one word in the US media about it! The Virus is a PSYOP to manipulate social behavior. The public is being brain washed to accept some Brave New World agenda.
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 7132
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: VA USA
Top

Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 3

Postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 11 Jul 2020, 12:38:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')It came from China, 30/M. The seemed to figure it out real early, which is curious, except they are asian and no asian country has suffered. But they sure made it sound scary.

Sigh.

Why even bother to post something like that?

India is in Asia. Russia is in Asia. The Middle East is part of western Asia. Indonesia and the Phillipines are part of Asia?

Asia is a BIG place and there has been LOTS of COVID-19 and related suffering there, and given the rapid increase in cases in several parts of Asia, that certainly looks likely to continue.

If you're talking about certain countries such as small island nations with lots of mask wearing and cultural cooperation where cases have been fairly low, say THAT. THAT is only a tiny part of Asia.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 10142
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42
Location: Central KY
Top

Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 3

Postby asg70 » Sat 11 Jul 2020, 14:01:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')the Democrat party is that it has no guiding principles beyond “defeat Trump”.


How do you think Trump got elected? He was nothing if not a protest vote. Don't underestimate the unifying power of that. And I'm not so sure the Democratic party is as factionalized as you make it out to be. For one thing, they all tend to give a shit about the environment, unlike the Republicans, which is something people here should admire.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
asg70
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 4289
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 14:17:28
Top

Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 3

Postby JuanP » Sat 11 Jul 2020, 18:14:11

"Avalanche" by Richard Heinberg at resilience.org
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020 ... avalanche/

This is an absolutely great article by RH which perfectly summarizes the situation in the USA today. It brings up many of the points we have been arguing about here every day for months.

I recommend this article for the site's front page.
"Human stupidity has no limits" JuanP
JuanP
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1957
Joined: Sat 16 Aug 2014, 15:06:32
Top

Re: Opening Up the Economy Pt. 3

Postby AdamB » Sat 11 Jul 2020, 19:06:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JuanP', '&')quot;Avalanche" by Richard Heinberg at resilience.org
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020 ... avalanche/

This is an absolutely great article by RH which perfectly summarizes the situation in the USA today. It brings up many of the points we have been arguing about here every day for months.

I recommend this article for the site's front page.


Mr "Pol Pot" Heinberg ranks right up there with Doctor Seuss when it comes quality of analysis. Once upon a time, Richard's credentials as a college drop out rock band member and amateur violin player seemed to carry some weight in the peak oil debate, among the intellectually challenged anyway. His shining moment of putting together Pol Pot's idea of driving everyone out of the cities to work in countryside, branding it "Powerdown" and trying to sell it to the feeble minded being the peak of his influence in the Happy McPeakster world. I guess he figured that his legions of intellectually challenged McPeaksters had never learned any history as to how this particular exercise had played out in the past perhaps?

Anyway, recommending someone as thoroughly discredited by his own work as any site's front page? Please. Unless he has managed to finish college perhaps? You know...and LEARNED something?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top
PreviousNext
Post a reply

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests



cron