[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')IMHO the world is going to keep drilling for oil and using it until there is so much CO2 in the air the whole planet cooks.

[RepublicanfromEngland]

Having read books like the party's over and the last oil shock, like others would of mentioned, efficiency, and technology has delayed any real change in supply.

The virus has dented demand.

[ralfy]

Scarcity is painfully obvious as seen in the use of shale.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('REAL Green', '
')When I look at the dynamics of peak oil I see scarcity created from the demand side as economic peak oil.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jedrider', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'I')'ve got no beef with peak oil demand at all.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'S')carcity is painfully obvious as seen in the use of shale.

[asg70]

The arguments keep running over the same ground.

Peak oilers have been insisting that unconventional is uneconomic since before the shale boom actually got underway. It was actually a pillar of The Oil Drum and its debunking was why TOD went away. Today the only addition is the rationalization that easy credit played a part. And it's TRUE but only up to a point. The reason why shale has been such an unstable business is because of competition from conventional oil. If the Saudis hadn't declared war on shale then we'd see a truer picture of shale profit and loss, and then you had COVID driving demand down. But as always, peakers will ignore factors that don't fit its narrative.

If one concedes that shale can be profitable in isolation and still sell finished product at a BAU-friendly price, then the only thing left that matters is how much of it is in the ground. It's generally assumed that oil exists in a pyramidal configuration with the conventional reserves being the least plentiful (at least the remaining reserves) and untapped unconventional the most common. That is just crustal abundance, not recoverability. The shale boom was about finding a way to recover what was once thought unrecoverable.

So it's not so much the classic peak oil curve to be concerned with anymore as much as it's the shale curve. On that front I have seen wildly differing estimates. The initial exuberance around shale suggested that it would last long enough for nobody to be concerned about depletion. Pessimists are talking about how it's already post-peak.

What I do know is that shale has added a lot of supply to total global oil availability, therefore prolonging BAU. The more shale consumed, the less crude need be consumed from conventional reservoirs. The more convention is produced in defiance of a glut, the more periodic shuttering of shale drilling, the longer shale will remain as a viable resource. So even though both oil supplies seem to be fighting they are in effect prolonging each system. To oil companies, it wreaks havoc with their balance sheet, but as far as industry-wide lifespan and joe public goes, it's beneficial.

Then you add COVID and a potential long-tail economic depression from it, and AFTER that the wave of EVs that are in the pipeline if and when consumers can afford it, and you can see that the world as we know it, otherwise known as BAU, is likely to continue apace. There is little from the standpoint of geologic depletion (which should be the key talking point of peakers) that is likely to factor in over the near to medium-term.

Those who concede (if they aren't ETP nuts) then pivot their argument over to the House that Jack Built. I.e. Peak oil DYNAMIC in which all factors of civilization are linked, Glenn Beck chalkboard style, to oil. This is a spurious argument driven by a need for peakers to hold onto their chosen religion.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', ' ') There is little from the standpoint of geologic depletion (which should be the key talking point of peakers) that is likely to factor in over the near to medium-term.

[jedrider]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'C')ome back when you can explain how Amy Jaffe, CSIS, Rystad and Woodmac were so easily misled then. And there are plenty of valuable commodities, perhaps you are discounting the environmental angles, lower oil use per capita, folks like me driving EVs? In either case, you can claim whatever you'd like, or you can round up some data, maybe some analytic experience, and explain why the listed folks are wrong?

[jedrider]

Well, I guess the pipelines ARE 'empty':

Pipeline built to survive extremes can’t bear slow oil flow
https://www.denverpost.com/2017/04/16/trans-alaska-pipeline-future/

[ROCKMAN]

Jed - To be honest I've never spent much time thinking about if we had reached PO or when we will reach it. Before I retired I focused on where I would drill my next well. Now retired and use very little fossil fuel myself I could care less. My income is completely disconnected from the US/world economy it's everyone else's problem. LOL.

The world typically makes its own problems. Luckily I've been able to isolate myself from most of them. Including the pandemic. I am not nor have I ever considered myself my "brother's keeper". Don't mean to sound so cold but way too many folks keep making bad choices. Like pissing away natural resources...just because they have "a lot of them."

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'S')carcity is painfully obvious as seen in the use of shale.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jedrider', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'C')ome back when you can explain how Amy Jaffe, CSIS, Rystad and Woodmac were so easily misled then. And there are plenty of valuable commodities, perhaps you are discounting the environmental angles, lower oil use per capita, folks like me driving EVs? In either case, you can claim whatever you'd like, or you can round up some data, maybe some analytic experience, and explain why the listed folks are wrong?

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jedrider', 'W')ell, I guess the pipelines ARE 'empty':

Pipeline built to survive extremes can’t bear slow oil flow
https://www.denverpost.com/2017/04/16/trans-alaska-pipeline-future/

[REAL Green]

Crude Oil Production
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_CRD_CR ... BLPD_M.htm
Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20
12,866 12,813 12,755 12,748 12,730 12,061

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('REAL Green', 'C')rude Oil Production
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_CRD_CR ... BLPD_M.htm
Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20
12,866 12,813 12,755 12,748 12,730 12,061

[REAL Green]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'Y')our point is....that the US has peaked? Again? Could be...not like its the first time though, right?

[jedrider]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('REAL Green', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'Y')our point is....that the US has peaked? Again? Could be...not like its the first time though, right?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('REAL Green', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'Y')our point is....that the US has peaked? Again? Could be...not like its the first time though, right?

[mousepad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')what the real live experts with proprietary data think on the topic.