$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Seeker', 'R')OFL, jdelgado...
That's hilarious. And the 3000+ posters here, we're all owned and operated by the IMF?
I swear, sometimes people don't seem to THINK.
Try looking up the registration for other sites like LATOC, EnergyBulletin, etc.
PeakOil is You
by jtmorgan61 » Fri 29 Jul 2005, 18:10:53
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ctually learning about Peak Oil left me rather calm. I've always known that "something" was wrong with this civilization, and that "something big" was going to happen in my lifetime. I'm not sure why, but I'm also not the only person I've heard say this.
So when I learned about Peak Oil I simply thought "oh...so THIS is what it's going to be?"
So when I learned about Peak Oil I simply thought "oh...so THIS is what it's going to be?"
See, I feel the same thing, but after a careful analysis I don't think that it's peak oil. It's a lot more nebulous than that. It's not a single event. An end to hydrocarbon usage is part of it, as will be the increasing pressure we put on the environment and the capping of world population. There is going to be a radical change in the way people look at the world and each other in the next 20-50 years. The pressure has been building up for quite a while now.
I'm hanging around this board even though the peak oil question is resolved in my mind because I'm concerned that it's a false lead, it's allowing people to cling onto it and say, "ah, this is it." Grabbing onto peak oil like this is inhibiting the cause of cultural change.
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by Reality_Conference » Fri 29 Jul 2005, 18:16:52
If you want some information that will blow your hair back, read 'Fingerprints of the Gods' by Graham Hancock. He may not be right about everything he asserts in there but he asks some damn good questions. Perhaps Peak Oil will turn out to be a non-event because we are approaching a time of drastic climate change and the Earth repositioning it's continents. Don't forget the Mayan Calendar ends in the year 2012 and there is substantial evidence they were left this calendar by someone else.
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by bobeau » Fri 29 Jul 2005, 18:57:30
I used to be active on a forum for Dwell Magazine... someone just threw out the term 'Peak Oil' in a message circa Jan/Feb '04, curious I googled it. Kinda skipped over reading Savinar's site and the others dedicated to it as I felt they were conspiracy theorist'ish, but latched on to ASPO's site as it seemed more professionally minded. The next day I was driving around San Diego feeling trying to envision it like 1984, Blade Runner, etc, sorta in a haze. After a few months of keeping up with the ASPO's newsletters I tuned out and ignored it. As it became apparent through oil prices at the beginning of this year something was wrong I googled PO again and found this site.
Something to be said on how the public can't turn on a dime AFA their attitudes and such - I'm a former car nut and not quite the environmentalist type. Learning about this subject has changed my ways.
Something to be said on how the public can't turn on a dime AFA their attitudes and such - I'm a former car nut and not quite the environmentalist type. Learning about this subject has changed my ways.
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by bruss01 » Fri 29 Jul 2005, 19:58:10
I ran across the concept of "Peak Oil" online, read some doomerish stuff (I think Matt Savinar's site, and others). Sounded plausible but I was of the opinion that exagerations were being made, worst case scenarios envisiged. I read a few books and did my own research on the subject, looking to get a credible assessment of the situation.
******************************
Oh... crap.
I should have known this... it's patently obvious in hindsight.
Lots - and LOTS - of people are going to die... soon! Nothing will change the indellible facts of the matter. It's already too late. The die is cast.
I feel sick.
So this is that "something" I always felt I was going to have to face, the big crisis of epoch-ending significance? A fight for survival, for myself and for the human race. That "something" I always felt, hovering malignantly in the background, mostly un-noticed and un-spoken of but always there none the less.
Huh. Guess I always figured it'd be a nuclear war or something. Oh, wait... it still might be... doesn't matter anyway - dead is dead, whether it's the H-bomb or Avian flu virus or starvation or urban chaos.
Well - since those are the facts - I'm not going down without a fight!
***************************
That was my reaction.
I was depressed and a little frantic for a while. The thing that threw me most was the fact that I always felt that although I (and the rest of us) would likely have to face a crisis, but that it would be one we could get THROUGH, and have a normal life again on the other side. Now I realize that PO is not goinig to be a one shot thing... when cheap oil is gone, it's gone FOREVER. The things that change will change permanently. And there will be a lot fewer of us here, once things have changed, to remember what it was like before. A LOT fewer.
I'm calmer now, and have a general plan in place that I am pursuing. I'm resigned that if society collapses tomorrow, I won't be ready, but I'll still last longer than most. In a year, maybe two or three, I'll be about as ready as I can be, with more options than I have now. I'm hoping that I have at least *some* time on my side.
More importantly, I'm determined to enjoy what still remains of my time and this energy-consuming society in which I live. Yes, I will go to movies, and theatre, and eat well, laugh and play with my wife, and take trips and enjoy the daily conveniences. That way, if I die at 10:00 AM on the first day of the Apocalypse because I tripped over my own shoelaces
and got a concussion, and somebody else ends up using all my survival preparations, I'll still have had a satisfying life.
And hope I have better luck the next time around.
******************************
Oh... crap.
I should have known this... it's patently obvious in hindsight.
Lots - and LOTS - of people are going to die... soon! Nothing will change the indellible facts of the matter. It's already too late. The die is cast.
I feel sick.
So this is that "something" I always felt I was going to have to face, the big crisis of epoch-ending significance? A fight for survival, for myself and for the human race. That "something" I always felt, hovering malignantly in the background, mostly un-noticed and un-spoken of but always there none the less.
Huh. Guess I always figured it'd be a nuclear war or something. Oh, wait... it still might be... doesn't matter anyway - dead is dead, whether it's the H-bomb or Avian flu virus or starvation or urban chaos.
Well - since those are the facts - I'm not going down without a fight!
***************************
That was my reaction.
I was depressed and a little frantic for a while. The thing that threw me most was the fact that I always felt that although I (and the rest of us) would likely have to face a crisis, but that it would be one we could get THROUGH, and have a normal life again on the other side. Now I realize that PO is not goinig to be a one shot thing... when cheap oil is gone, it's gone FOREVER. The things that change will change permanently. And there will be a lot fewer of us here, once things have changed, to remember what it was like before. A LOT fewer.
I'm calmer now, and have a general plan in place that I am pursuing. I'm resigned that if society collapses tomorrow, I won't be ready, but I'll still last longer than most. In a year, maybe two or three, I'll be about as ready as I can be, with more options than I have now. I'm hoping that I have at least *some* time on my side.
More importantly, I'm determined to enjoy what still remains of my time and this energy-consuming society in which I live. Yes, I will go to movies, and theatre, and eat well, laugh and play with my wife, and take trips and enjoy the daily conveniences. That way, if I die at 10:00 AM on the first day of the Apocalypse because I tripped over my own shoelaces
and got a concussion, and somebody else ends up using all my survival preparations, I'll still have had a satisfying life.
And hope I have better luck the next time around.
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bruss01 - Peat
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- Joined: Wed 06 Jul 2005, 03:00:00
- Location: Sacramento
My reaction
by DoctorDoom » Fri 29 Jul 2005, 21:18:56
I was a kid in the 70s. I used to mow lawns to make spending money, and so I handled a lot of gasoline. I remember thinking about how useful it was, and thinking that once we started to run out, it looked like big trouble. Then we had a couple of energy crises that seemed to confirm this opinion. I've been wary of our dependency on petroleum ever since.
I kinda went into ignorance is bliss mode for a few decades after that. I started reading BP's world energy report every year, and keeping an eye on the total world reserves. It was comforting to see the R/P ratio rising year after year. Clearly, we had some breathing room, and after all, it wasn't as if we weren't working on alternatives like fusion, solar, etc. (I did not realize, until I looked into PO years later, that some of the numbers might be suspect.)
Despite thinking there was still plenty of time, 40 years wasn't forever, certainly it was still a problem that was bound to hit our children. I came to deplore the waste I saw all around me. Didn't people realize the stuff we use to make all those plasticy things and burn in all those vehicles was a finite resource? If we didn't waste it, we could go maybe 100 years, plenty of time for our kids to figure something else out. I also used to think (and still do) that if it came to the worst, we could go back to nukes.
I used to debate this with friends, and one day, challenged by someone who thought we could go totally to renewables, I started doing some research, and ran across Savinar's site, the ASPO site, and this site. PO theory hit me like a ton of bricks. It was like, doh!, of course we can't just produce the remaining reserves for 40 more years on a flat line and then go to zero, of course it's gonna fall off gradually, why didn't that occur to me? That wasn't the worst of it, though - the worst came in completing my look at my original issue and finding out about EROEI. I always knew that PV cells (at least the ones in the 70s) took more energy to make than you'd get back from them, but it was shocking to find out how poor the EROEI is on even current PV, ethanol, etc., etc.
After a short period of being in the doomer camp I got a bit more relaxed. There is a lot of waste we can eliminate as we head down the other side. And there are alternatives with decent EREOI (like wind, and some solar technologies), and even if they aren't as good as oil, they are still positive, and could be good enough if we get started. And I still believe nuclear energy remains viable, something we could use for a few hundred years to buy time. And, ugh, there's still quite a bit of coal. I don't buy the argument that we're doomed because we need oil to produce any of the alternatives - we need energy to produce them, but it doesn't have to come from oil. (Even if it did, we will still have some oil, so we just need to displace existing uses with the new energy to free up oil for developing alternatives.)
Preparing for doomsday is not really my style, so the off-grid house, the farm in the middle of nowhere, etc., will have to wait. My personal habits were already pretty good - I was recycling everything I could, avoiding disposable plastic products and packaging wherever possible, driving less than half the miles the average person does every year (by choosing to live close to work and shopping), and using as little electricity and gas as possible in my home each year (not too hard in California's moderate climate). Putting up PV, a solar water heater, or a windmill is not an option in the dense suburban area I live in. The only thing I could really improve is my vehicle mileage. I will eventually replace my car with a hybrid or something similar. In the meantime, I got a motorcycle license and now do as much of my travel as possible in a 100mpg motorbike. I am waiting for a plug-in electric motorbike to come on the market sometime this year (it's available in Canada but not the USA). If necessary (during a crisis that I think is coming eventually), I could drop down to bicycle transport.
I do everything I can to raise awareness of the issue with my family and friends. The sooner we act, the better chance we have to avoid a catastrophe. Unfortunately, I think we're going to need that crisis I was talking about before people get their heads out of their asses.
I kinda went into ignorance is bliss mode for a few decades after that. I started reading BP's world energy report every year, and keeping an eye on the total world reserves. It was comforting to see the R/P ratio rising year after year. Clearly, we had some breathing room, and after all, it wasn't as if we weren't working on alternatives like fusion, solar, etc. (I did not realize, until I looked into PO years later, that some of the numbers might be suspect.)
Despite thinking there was still plenty of time, 40 years wasn't forever, certainly it was still a problem that was bound to hit our children. I came to deplore the waste I saw all around me. Didn't people realize the stuff we use to make all those plasticy things and burn in all those vehicles was a finite resource? If we didn't waste it, we could go maybe 100 years, plenty of time for our kids to figure something else out. I also used to think (and still do) that if it came to the worst, we could go back to nukes.
I used to debate this with friends, and one day, challenged by someone who thought we could go totally to renewables, I started doing some research, and ran across Savinar's site, the ASPO site, and this site. PO theory hit me like a ton of bricks. It was like, doh!, of course we can't just produce the remaining reserves for 40 more years on a flat line and then go to zero, of course it's gonna fall off gradually, why didn't that occur to me? That wasn't the worst of it, though - the worst came in completing my look at my original issue and finding out about EROEI. I always knew that PV cells (at least the ones in the 70s) took more energy to make than you'd get back from them, but it was shocking to find out how poor the EROEI is on even current PV, ethanol, etc., etc.
After a short period of being in the doomer camp I got a bit more relaxed. There is a lot of waste we can eliminate as we head down the other side. And there are alternatives with decent EREOI (like wind, and some solar technologies), and even if they aren't as good as oil, they are still positive, and could be good enough if we get started. And I still believe nuclear energy remains viable, something we could use for a few hundred years to buy time. And, ugh, there's still quite a bit of coal. I don't buy the argument that we're doomed because we need oil to produce any of the alternatives - we need energy to produce them, but it doesn't have to come from oil. (Even if it did, we will still have some oil, so we just need to displace existing uses with the new energy to free up oil for developing alternatives.)
Preparing for doomsday is not really my style, so the off-grid house, the farm in the middle of nowhere, etc., will have to wait. My personal habits were already pretty good - I was recycling everything I could, avoiding disposable plastic products and packaging wherever possible, driving less than half the miles the average person does every year (by choosing to live close to work and shopping), and using as little electricity and gas as possible in my home each year (not too hard in California's moderate climate). Putting up PV, a solar water heater, or a windmill is not an option in the dense suburban area I live in. The only thing I could really improve is my vehicle mileage. I will eventually replace my car with a hybrid or something similar. In the meantime, I got a motorcycle license and now do as much of my travel as possible in a 100mpg motorbike. I am waiting for a plug-in electric motorbike to come on the market sometime this year (it's available in Canada but not the USA). If necessary (during a crisis that I think is coming eventually), I could drop down to bicycle transport.
I do everything I can to raise awareness of the issue with my family and friends. The sooner we act, the better chance we have to avoid a catastrophe. Unfortunately, I think we're going to need that crisis I was talking about before people get their heads out of their asses.
- DoctorDoom
- Expert
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- Joined: Sun 20 Jun 2004, 03:00:00
- Location: California
by wilburke » Fri 29 Jul 2005, 22:54:30
Like most everyone else, I knew that oil would run out at some point.....
However, my first encounter with Peak Oil came about two years ago, while reading an on-line newsletter that was railing against Peak Oil, and in favor of the Abiotic Theory. The author (David McGowan) was also bashing Michael Ruppert, and, to be fair, I went to the "From the Wildnerness" site to get the other side.....
Reading Ruppert, and also Dale Alan Pfeiffer, I came to see it as an "issue", meaning that I was moved to buy a couple of gold coins, but I was still unclear about the real issues involved. Then, one day, out of curiosity spawned by one of Ruppert's alerts, I "googled" Peak Oil, and came immediately upon Matt Savinar's site. I downloaded the electronic version of his book, read it while sitting at work pretending to be busy, and I've been basically scared shitless ever since.....
However, my first encounter with Peak Oil came about two years ago, while reading an on-line newsletter that was railing against Peak Oil, and in favor of the Abiotic Theory. The author (David McGowan) was also bashing Michael Ruppert, and, to be fair, I went to the "From the Wildnerness" site to get the other side.....
Reading Ruppert, and also Dale Alan Pfeiffer, I came to see it as an "issue", meaning that I was moved to buy a couple of gold coins, but I was still unclear about the real issues involved. Then, one day, out of curiosity spawned by one of Ruppert's alerts, I "googled" Peak Oil, and came immediately upon Matt Savinar's site. I downloaded the electronic version of his book, read it while sitting at work pretending to be busy, and I've been basically scared shitless ever since.....
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by Ghog » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 00:28:15
I guess I should tell my story.
About a year ago now, someone linked the LATOC site from another forum I frequented. I followed the link and it has forever changed my thinking. At first it was a "well it sounds feasible, but so do all of the end of the world predictions". I followed every link trying to find the 'but, it's not all bad' and really never came across any countering opinions which swayed my new thinking. It was then a 2 or 3 month period of depression. Then I took 6 months off from PO and resumed the routine. I think what brought me back was more of a longing for something more out of life. The rat race was not fulfilling.
Now, I look at life on the whole much differently. I, like a few others have said, long for having more people close by to share the discussions with. My wife isn't really interested in dealing with PO's 'issues'. Instead I have chosen to involve her more in preparation (gardening and seed saving) without her knowing. The few people I have told, who I thought might react positively, end up reacting like most. "Uh ok, end of the world huh?" Only finding this site recently, Peakoil.com and its members have been inspirational in helping me keep focus inspite of the lack of emotional support. I am realizing I want a simpler life and in the end it will only help me prepare for PO. I am working on freeing myself of the modern US lifestyle and going to a more natural existnce and a healthier outlook.
Those preparing for PO are certainly in the minority, but I would bet that we are much happier with our lives, now and after PO. It is making people take focus on their existence, something people worried about bills and traffic never do.
About a year ago now, someone linked the LATOC site from another forum I frequented. I followed the link and it has forever changed my thinking. At first it was a "well it sounds feasible, but so do all of the end of the world predictions". I followed every link trying to find the 'but, it's not all bad' and really never came across any countering opinions which swayed my new thinking. It was then a 2 or 3 month period of depression. Then I took 6 months off from PO and resumed the routine. I think what brought me back was more of a longing for something more out of life. The rat race was not fulfilling.
Now, I look at life on the whole much differently. I, like a few others have said, long for having more people close by to share the discussions with. My wife isn't really interested in dealing with PO's 'issues'. Instead I have chosen to involve her more in preparation (gardening and seed saving) without her knowing. The few people I have told, who I thought might react positively, end up reacting like most. "Uh ok, end of the world huh?" Only finding this site recently, Peakoil.com and its members have been inspirational in helping me keep focus inspite of the lack of emotional support. I am realizing I want a simpler life and in the end it will only help me prepare for PO. I am working on freeing myself of the modern US lifestyle and going to a more natural existnce and a healthier outlook.
Those preparing for PO are certainly in the minority, but I would bet that we are much happier with our lives, now and after PO. It is making people take focus on their existence, something people worried about bills and traffic never do.
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by Roy » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 08:30:55
For me it went like this:
1. Learned the term, then read Savinar's book.
2. Felt shock, disbelief, anger, and sadness.
3. Spent the next 6 months trying to debunk the idea.
4. When debunking proved to be impossible, I began making necessary adjustments, not limited to selling the gas guzzlers, moving closer to work, reducing debt, selling my house in suburbia, guns of course, extra food, new garden to practice and learn.
5. Trying to educate friends and family has been spectacularly unsuccessful. My wife, being an intelligent analytical woman, was skeptical at first. The other day she told me what convinced her was that the predictions I was making (based on my research) slowly starting to come true. I don;t claim any special ability. I was mainly parroting what I read.
. Many so called friends have dissociated from me. Others get glassy eyed if I bring it up. Family, except for my father in law, thinks I'm off my rocker. Co workers that I thought might be open to it have pretty much shunned me as I have rejected the consumerist ideal, quite obviously to them. To them I'm a liberal wingnut. Which couldn't be further from the truth. See #4.
I've learned that framing Peak Oil and its consequences is much less alienating to others if I frame it as "economic hard times coming", and leave it at that. That's something older folks (boomers) can understand having lived through the 70's.
Roy
1. Learned the term, then read Savinar's book.
2. Felt shock, disbelief, anger, and sadness.
3. Spent the next 6 months trying to debunk the idea.
4. When debunking proved to be impossible, I began making necessary adjustments, not limited to selling the gas guzzlers, moving closer to work, reducing debt, selling my house in suburbia, guns of course, extra food, new garden to practice and learn.
5. Trying to educate friends and family has been spectacularly unsuccessful. My wife, being an intelligent analytical woman, was skeptical at first. The other day she told me what convinced her was that the predictions I was making (based on my research) slowly starting to come true. I don;t claim any special ability. I was mainly parroting what I read.
. Many so called friends have dissociated from me. Others get glassy eyed if I bring it up. Family, except for my father in law, thinks I'm off my rocker. Co workers that I thought might be open to it have pretty much shunned me as I have rejected the consumerist ideal, quite obviously to them. To them I'm a liberal wingnut. Which couldn't be further from the truth. See #4.
I've learned that framing Peak Oil and its consequences is much less alienating to others if I frame it as "economic hard times coming", and leave it at that. That's something older folks (boomers) can understand having lived through the 70's.
Roy
- Roy
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by skiwi » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 08:49:16
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Reality_Conference', 'I')f you want some information that will blow your hair back, read 'Fingerprints of the Gods' by Graham Hancock. He may not be right about everything he asserts in there but he asks some damn good questions. Perhaps Peak Oil will turn out to be a non-event because we are approaching a time of drastic climate change and the Earth repositioning it's continents. Don't forget the Mayan Calendar ends in the year 2012 and there is substantial evidence they were left this calendar by someone else.
Yes there's certainly a lot more going on in the world than JUST peak oil but most people have enough trouble just getting a handle on that.
Let us make him who shall nourish and sustain us. What shall we do to be invoked; to be remembered in the earth.
We have tried with our first creatures but we could not make them venerate us.
So let us try to make obedient respectful beings who shall
We have tried with our first creatures but we could not make them venerate us.
So let us try to make obedient respectful beings who shall
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by whatpeak » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 11:42:14
Like BrownDog I learned about PO when reading the article in Rolling Stone magazine containing an excerpt from Long Emergency (BTW bought the book). Ironically, I was waiting for new tires to be installed on my SUV. Since then PO has kind of captured my attention. I guess that my reaction is like the man whistling through the graveyard at night. Keep reading PO books (just started Twilight In The Desert) and watching this board.
Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
- whatpeak
by EdF » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 12:14:37
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jtmorgan61', '.').. See, I feel the same thing, but after a careful analysis I don't think that it's peak oil. It's a lot more nebulous than that. It's not a single event. An end to hydrocarbon usage is part of it, as will be the increasing pressure we put on the environment and the capping of world population. There is going to be a radical change in the way people look at the world and each other in the next 20-50 years. The pressure has been building up for quite a while now...
jt,
Check out The Final Empire written in the mid-90's for a "bigger picture". The author frames it all in terms of ecology and the effects of our "empire civilization". It's a long read, but IMO very worthwhile.
- Ed
- EdF
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