$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marmico', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nybody who thinks this is all just because of some virus, isn't thinking hard enough. The virus is just an excuse.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')Skipping the recession. Going straight to a depression.

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')Skipping the recession. Going straight to a depression.

[yeahbut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', '
') global systems have become increasingly vulnerable to black swans; sacrificing resiliency for obscene profits and fiat growth.

[Pops]

8 people (6 American) own as much wealth as half of humanity.
95% of economic gains went to the top 1% net worth since 2009

Most wealth is intangible, equities based on future earnings, etc. because, well, you can only eat so much caviar and profits must go somewhere.
Imagine if a greater portion of the gains since 09 had gone, oh I don't know, to the people who earned it? Would that wealth have been nothing but the seltzer blowing the market froth we've just seen evaporate?

It might have gone to hookers and blow but a little might have gone to more efficient vehicles or owning a home, or college or debt repayment or school lunch or any of a billion tangible items people might actually use.

But it went into blowing yet another record market bubble.

Don't know if that make this system less stable than it used to be when America was great but it sure makes it less worthwhile for the 99%

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', '
') global systems have become increasingly vulnerable to black swans; sacrificing resiliency for obscene profits and fiat growth.

[yeahbut]

Pops, Tanada- that is why I still lurk around this site. Some of the smartest people I know, with fascinating insights and perspectives, are here. Goodnight and good luck PO folks.

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', '
') global systems have become increasingly vulnerable to black swans; sacrificing resiliency for obscene profits and fiat growth.

[yeahbut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', '
')
Some of the vulnerabilities are:
... Humans are far more mobile, globally, than they were in the '30s
... Supply chains are JIT (just in time) and are, again, more global. Most products are not produced locally and are not warehoused/stockpiled for the most part.
... Food chains are also very long, intercontinental in many instances. The onions in my stew last night are from Peru. I'm in North Carolina.
... Many products these days are not built to last. Planned obsolescence is a thing now.
... There are far more humans now, making more demands on systems. Per capita energy and resource consumption is much higher. Economies/jobs/infrastructures get locked into those levels of production/consumption.
... Systems are far more complex, optimized. A lot of things have to go right for them to perform.
... Financial and technical cross-contagion is more of a thing these days, IMO.

[marmico]

The time....has arrived. The US economy has troughed according to the FRB New York Weekly Economic Index. The 12th business cycle recovery since 1945 has begun.



https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/pol ... omic-index
https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary ... /sr920.pdf

[C8]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '[')b]8 people (6 American) own as much wealth as half of humanity.
95% of economic gains went to the top 1% net worth since 2009

Most wealth is intangible, equities based on future earnings, etc. because, well, you can only eat so much caviar and profits must go somewhere.
Imagine if a greater portion of the gains since 09 had gone, oh I don't know, to the people who earned it? Would that wealth have been nothing but the seltzer blowing the market froth we've just seen evaporate?

It might have gone to hookers and blow but a little might have gone to more efficient vehicles or owning a home, or college or debt repayment or school lunch or any of a billion tangible items people might actually use.

But it went into blowing yet another record market bubble.

Don't know if that make this system less stable than it used to be when America was great but it sure makes it less worthwhile for the 99%

[marmico]

NBER marks the quarterly business cycle peak at Q42019 and monthly peak at February 2020.

https://www.nber.org/cycles/june2020.html

[copious.abundance]

You beat me to it. It is now official.

Am I good, or what?

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'Y')ou beat me to it. It is now official.

Am I good, or what?

[marmico]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')m I good, or what?

[Armageddon]

The time has definitely arrived.....on all fronts

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marmico', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')m I good, or what?

[copious.abundance]

How could I be embarrassing myself when I was right?

And BTW it's no longer 2020.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'H')ow could I be embarrassing myself when I was right?

And BTW it's no longer 2020.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marmico', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')m I good, or what?