[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '
')
Everyone has to realize that shale has been there waiting to be exploited since the start. Even if we had all of 2020's technology, I doubt much of it would have been developed as long as there was easier to drill oil available.

[Darian S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'P')roduct cost will still go up because of physical limitations and gravity

[ralfy]

Cost went up while price swung up and down.

[sparky]

.
Let's face it this site has become a plaything for greenies and porn doomers
very little posting relate to the oil industry and its future
I could accept some variations on the theme of energy as a social concern
certainly current news are legitimate , a bit of horsing around is OK
but this site is totally loosing focus of what its core purpose is

[REAL Green]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')Let's face it this site has become a plaything for greenies and porn doomers
very little posting relate to the oil industry and its future

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
Let's face it this site has become a plaything for greenies and porn doomers
very little posting relate to the oil industry and its future
I could accept some variations on the theme of energy as a social concern
certainly current news are legitimate , a bit of horsing around is OK
but this site is totally loosing focus of what its core purpose is

[sparky]

.
@ real Green .......thanks for your cogent reply , I will think about it
@ ralfy ....could you explain "the other way around " I'm not being smart arsed , just puzzled

there certainly has been a sea change between the original "imminent " supply disruption of Peak Oil
now it seems less an issue of supply as one of demand
in the next twist , affordable supply might emerge

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
@ real Green .......thanks for your cogent reply , I will think about it
@ ralfy ....could you explain "the other way around " I'm not being smart arsed , just puzzled

there certainly has been a sea change between the original "imminent " supply disruption of Peak Oil
now it seems less an issue of supply as one of demand
in the next twist , affordable supply might emerge

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Darian S', '
')All over the world debt has been ballooning signalling nonviability of current model.

[evilgenius]

Or, what we are really seeing, is how man twists and turns as he makes his way along the unknown path of history.
This site just tries to say that one form of how that works, energy, is more important than another along that path. It does not, necessarily, try to say that energy is more important than the other inputs. It merely stakes a place among which the other inputs can compete for importance. But, in doing so, we begin to see the world in different ways.

[MonteQuest]

Might be premature. Back in December of 2008, I posted The Eye of the Storm. Here’s an excerpt:

“Like a passing hurricane, this “eye of the storm” in gas and oil prices is setting us up for an even more painful energy crisis in the very near future. We must consider that, should oil prices and demand remain low for an extended period, new investment in oil production — not to mention renewables — will fall to such an extent that, with worldwide depletion of existing fields at 6.7 percent a year, there simply will not be enough new oil, or oil replacement energy, to power an economic recovery.”

Of course, much to many peakers surprise and chagrin, fracking came to the rescue. Now, it may come back to haunt us.

“I actually believe that in, let’s say, 18 months from now the oil will hit $100,”-- Orascom Investment Holding Chairman and CEO Naguib Sawiris

He says this because demand will be back up, but supply will not be where it normally would due to the fracking shut-ins and the lack of investments and drilling. The shale industry may well vanish for at least one year, and any start-up is going to be difficult because banks are going to be very reluctant to finance them. Even many traditional oil facilities have closed down. I don't see demand coming back quite that fast, either. Not even close. But I do see a demand/supply crunch coming down the road.

Remember, peakoil was never about running out of oil, rather supply being unable to meet demand. Like the GFC that took millions of barrels of demand off the charts and gave us a reprieve from hitting limits while we exploited unprofitable shale oil, will this demand destruction usher in another reprieve or bring on a peakoil moment?

[asg70]

Fine by me. #GotBEV?

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'O')r, what we are really seeing, is how man twists and turns as he makes his way along the unknown path of history.
This site just tries to say that one form of how that works, energy, is more important than another along that path. It does not, necessarily, try to say that energy is more important than the other inputs. It merely stakes a place among which the other inputs can compete for importance. But, in doing so, we begin to see the world in different ways.

[Darian S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Darian S', '
')All over the world debt has been ballooning signalling nonviability of current model.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')racking wells aren't multidecade century+ producers. They produce most of their output within a few years and by the third decade need to be shut down.

[Darian S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')H, is that right. Please show us examples of this.

[rockdoc123]

well first off the longest producing fracked long horizontal in the Eagleford is 8 years old so projections forward (whether that is EOG or anyone else) from that are subject to wild variation (it depends on the decline curve they chose to use). Please demonstrate what unconventional fields or wells from those fields have been producing for three decades and are now shut-in. Given the shale revolution didn't really start until 2004 and it wasn't until 2009 that long horizontals with multi-stage fracs became standard I think you are out of luck.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he giant oilfields will cut production by 50~% in ten years at current decline, that's at least 20-30+Mbpd drop. I've heard the world was expecting an increase of about 20Mbpd above current production.

[ROCKMAN]

Just my own personal anecdotal life but for 40 years I made a good living producing UNPROVEN reserves from old fields. In fact, in a few cases we produced more oil in the first 5 years we operated the field then the first 5 years of initial production. Not often but enough times tp make $100's of million. But yes, there was a catch: enhanced oil recover methods were used. But EOR tends to be very expensive and you better be very good at it. But that's enough: you need high oil prices to make it work. My last big project we took leases (about 10 years ago) in a field. Didn't need to buy the field since most of the wells had been plugged and abandoned. My first horizontal well (no, not shale well but in a conventional sandstone reservoir) came in at a rate 4X greater then the typical original vert. wells. Would probably had recovered more oil then the field cumulative of 30 million bbls...if we had kept drilling. But then oil prices fell. My new wells would have still made a small profit despite the high cost of my horizontal wells. But my billionaire owner wasn't interested in small profits. Probably why he's a billionaire. LOL.

And setting all humility aside I was the first geologist to develop this EOR method in one of these old fields that had recovered 3 BILLION bbls from this trend of similar fields. And I was never allowed to publish a report on the method: my owner did not want share the success. Only one other geologist was successful copying the method. Now I'm too worn out from my MS to publish.

[Newfie]

ROCKMAN,

Sorry the MS is keeping you down. I appreciate you experience.

[C8]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'J')
And setting all humility aside I was the first geologist to develop this EOR method in one of these old fields that had recovered 3 BILLION bbls from this trend of similar fields. And I was never allowed to publish a report on the method: my owner did not want share the success. Only one other geologist was successful copying the method. Now I'm too worn out from my MS to publish.