[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'M')onte you are the one conflating. Debt and energy and not interchangeable. GDP does not measure asset prices or financial speculation, it measures goods and services.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'G')DP measures two things at once: the total income of everyone in the economy and the total expenditure on the economy's output of goods and services.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'G')DP measures two things at once: the total income of everyone in the economy and the total expenditure on the economy's output of goods and services.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'M')onte you are the one conflating. Debt and energy and not interchangeable. GDP does not measure asset prices or financial speculation, it measures goods and services.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', ' ')With respect, I don't see how the CALCULATION of GDP has anything to do with income. It is the total measure of goods and services produced, adjusted for imports and exports.

[MonteQuest]

Let's just get it simple. Kub said, "Total energy demand has been more or less flat for over the last decade. Coal plants have been retired. Oil consumption has fallen. Renewables and rising efficiency has taken their place. Total fossil fuel consumption in this country has fallen this past decade."

Renewables have not taken their place. They only met 25% of new energy demand. And I say declining GDP growth is responsible for the flat demand in energy, not efficiency gains. NG has largely replaced coal. The data I see bears this out.

Renewables and efficiency/conservations gains are not viable solutions to our climate issue, nor our energy needs. They are marginal supplements. Anyone want to make any bets on what the REN21 Global Renewables Status Report will be in June? Wind, solar, and geothermal are 2% in 2019, having grown just .3% last year. What will REN21 2020 show? I'm done with the above debate. We are going nowhere, guys.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'B')ut you can create income out of thin air to spend on goods and services via debt and speculation transactions. Without it, US GDP would be negative. Sales of real assets inflated by debt and speculation are counted as GDP. It takes no energy to inflate assets.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ')I agree the financial crisis lowered the GDP growth rate and that GDP growth rate is goosed by higher debt levels. The increase in renewable energy & efficiency in the US exactly matches the decrease in fossil fuel use.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'R')enewables have not taken their place, and I say declining GDP growth is responsible for the flat demand in energy, not efficiency gains. NG has largely replaced coal. The data bears this out.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'R')enewables didn't even meet but 25% of new energy demand (IEA), much less help reduce world fossil fuel use. In power generation, fossil fuel use actually increased from 2018 to 2019.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'M')y comment was talking about the US, now you are talking about the world:

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'N')ot if GDP grew less than the 3.19% in did in the decade before. GDP growth declined from 3.19% avg to about 2% or less. Thus FF use declined. You even agreed. "I agree the financial crisis lowered the GDP growth rate." It declined all across the OECD countries, while it increased in the non-OECD developing countries.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'U')nless of course we replaced some of our fossil fuel usage with renewables and productivity increases.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'E')ven if the GDP growth rate declined, overall the economy still grew. IE, if the economy grew 2.2% per year, then over a decade it grew 22%. Absent any productivity increases, this will require a corresponding increase in energy usage as well.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')s to renewables, in 2008, wind. solar, and geothermal comprised 1% of our primary energy. 12 years later, it’s just 3.5% as of April 2019. (EIA) A 2.5% increase is nearly a meaningless contribution.

[marmico]

Good back and forth with kub and Monte. Monte seems confused about levels and rates.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e have used cheap debt to drive GDP as opposed to cheap energy.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')s to renewables, in 2008, wind. solar, and geothermal comprised 1% of our primary energy. 12 years later, it’s just 3.5% as of April 2019. (EIA) A 2.5% increase is nearly a meaningless contribution.

[MonteQuest]

After considering Kub's arguments and reviewing the facts presented, I'll concede the following: Since U.S. GDP has grown over the last decade, yet energy per unit of GDP has declined, something must be happening beyond just declining GDP growth. It’s obvious that renewables have done little to displace FF energy use with their minuscule capture of the energy pie. And even if they did, they are still part of our primary energy supply. In fact, with a lower EROEI, modern renewables are less efficient by producing less net energy. That leaves us with the conclusions that the EIA cites:

“Worldwide energy intensity, measured as energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product (GDP), decreased by nearly one-third between 1990 and 2015. Within a region over time, several factors contribute to rising energy productivity:
• Structural changes in production and consumption (from manufacturing to service economies)
• More efficient use of resources
• Outsourcing energy-intensive activities
Between 1990 and 2015, U.S. energy productivity rose by 58%, with improvements in every sector.”—Source: EIA July 2016

So, the flattening of energy demand in the US is due to a shift to less energy-intensive activities like service industries, efficiency gains, and the outsourcing of energy-intensive activities. But since “worldwide energy intensity” has declined, where have energy-intensive activities been outsourced to? While many countries have shifted to service industries, somewhere, manufacturing is still taking place. This disparity leaves a lot of questions.

Then I found this: “The AEO2020 Reference case projects domestic energy demand to grow 0.3% per year on average through 2050, slower than the average annual growth of 1.9% in U.S. gross domestic product. This projection is largely driven by continued increases in energy efficiency in the end-use sectors.”

Then the paragraph continues and refutes the first part that claims “largely driven.”

“Gains in appliance efficiency in the residential and commercial sectors, increases in efficiency of new capital equipment in the industrial sector, and increases in fuel economy partially offset the growth in the number of households, industrial activity, and vehicle-miles traveled.”—EIA January 2020.

Thus efficiency gains going forward are only enough to “partially offset” new energy demand. What accounts “largely” for most of the decline in energy demand growth? Something is missing from the equation to account for the decline in energy consumption in the face of growing GDP, now, and into the future. Is it the continuing migration of economic activity away from making tangible things and toward providing services and virtual products such as games and binge-watchable TV series driving the decline? Is GDP being measured differently or factoring in debt-driven and speculative assets like real-estate sales that are spent not on goods and services, but on more speculation? Efficiency gains can't seem to account for the decline in aggregate demand, and if they did in the last decade, they won't going forward. The Law of Diminishing Returns at play.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marmico', 'G')ood back and forth with kub and Monte. Monte seems confused about levels and rates.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e have used cheap debt to drive GDP as opposed to cheap energy.

[MonteQuest]

The REN21 Renewables Global Status Report 2020 will out in June. Modern renewables like wind, solar, and geothermal comprise 2% of the 2019 global energy pie, growing only .3% last year. In the USA, it is 3.989% of the total pie, growing .489% last year.