[Newfie]

I think I’ve started to develop an investment strategy that will work despite of because of the uncertainty surrounding the virus.

I’m looking at a basket of REITs. Warehouses, data centers, cell infrastructure, timberland, farm land.

[REAL Green]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'I') think I’ve started to develop an investment strategy that will work despite of because of the uncertainty surrounding the virus.

I’m looking at a basket of REITs. Warehouses, data centers, cell infrastructure, timberland, farm land.

[Plantagenet]

I've been feeling great about it because I was following the pandemic in China and got nervous and I sold everything I had in the market in early February.

Then I bought back in pretty close to the lows in March.

WOW! Bingo..I'm up 50% in just a couple of months. Pardon me for mentioning it but this doesn't happen very often to me so I'm trying to enjoy the heck out of it.

For once I timed the market just right.

But now I'm worried about the coming recession/depression caused by the shutdown.

I never dreamed they'd shut down the whole US economy for two months and I don't have any idea how to play the current economic crisis.

I don't have any idea of the timing or the depth of the economic collapse we are starting into.

It could be short ..... or we could be starting into another Great Depression.

If so, we very could be looking at another, even deeper market collapse.....lets hope not.


.... fingers crossed for good luck.....

[Newfie]

Yes, I hear the uncertainty. That’s part of the reason for the post, to get other opinions.

This frigging virus is driving me nutz. I can see no logical pattern to it.

I can see inflation, due to the enormous amounts of magical money being created.

I’m having a much more difficult time seeing DEflation.

[vtsnowedin]

A very tough time to invest in the markets. No one has any idea how much the Fed and other government agencies will put their thumb on the scale and all the usual Wall street vultures are looking to skin you down to the bone.
I expect to see a flood of urbanites coming north to New England looking for a free standing house on more then an acre to put their money into something they can actually use if another wave comes.

[mmasters]

I've been in a hold strategy with my account. Got in since the bottom and after about a 30% recovery I notice these 10-15% fluctuations between a few good days and a few bad days the past few weeks. I'm thinking of selling out now after a few good days then buying back in after a few bad days. Might as well make money off it slushing around.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')es, I hear the uncertainty. That’s part of the reason for the post, to get other opinions.

This frigging virus is driving me nutz. I can see no logical pattern to it.

[mmasters]

Don't forget anheuser busch inbev (BUD). This virus is going to drive a lot of people to drink!

[REAL Green]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'I')’m having a much more difficult time seeing DEflation.

[Newfie]

Real,

OK, that makes as much sense as anything.

The price of toys collapse but necessities increase.

I’m not seeing the price of sailing yachts plummet yet, although I expect it will, for more reasons than you list.

Cars I expect to go into recession because the average car has a lot of life left in it. We can forego a new vehicle a couple of years before we really need to go get one.

I don’t know how housing will fare and it may be either regional or even by neighborhood. I can see pressures in both directions, but generally down. Unless there is some extraordinary assistance from the government. Interest rates are now around 3% or so. Houses are not being shown because of lockdown.

I am expecting some expansion in several areas.
Data centers
Wireless connectivity
Distribution centers, cold storage
Artificial Intelligence

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')I am expecting some expansion in several areas.
Data centers
Wireless connectivity
Distribution centers, cold storage
Artificial Intelligence

[REAL Green]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', ' ')Another I see increasing is roof top PV panels with storage systems. What few new houses I have seen being built as I do my town appraisal job all have such systems being installed and I expect many well heeled New Yorker's coming to settle/ retire in Rural areas will want them as a standard item.

[vtsnowedin]

What I am seeing is larger 5KW to 10KW systems that may or may not be grid tied. Generac company sells complete systems using wall batteries they call PWRcells equivalent to Tesal's power walls some have propane or diesel powered generators for double backup. The local power company is resisting taking in solar power into their grid but regulators are pushing it. With sufficient battery you can use most of summer sunlight even if you can't sell excess to the grid then tap the grid in winter when the roof is snow covered for days etc. I expect the base bill for those using the grid that way to go up to cover the cost of maintaining the distribution lines that are being used less.

[REAL Green]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'W')hat I am seeing is larger 5KW to 10KW systems that may or may not be grid tied. Generac company sells complete systems using wall batteries they call PWRcells equivalent to Tesal's power walls some have propane or diesel powered generators for double backup..

[Newfie]

I just bumped this thread.

More relevant.

posting.php?mode=reply&f=6&t=74138

[mmasters]

Decided the next updraft in the market I'm going to cash out except for a modest stake in Gilead/remdesivir. The whole market is reminding me of the dot com bubble burst in the early stages so I'm out.

[evilgenius]

Some random thoughts.

Will house prices go down soon? I think that is likely. If you need something that you can buy used, I would put off that purchase for another few months. There will likely be a lot of what you need for sale on Craigslist - cheap. No need to waste money now.

Will people spend on resort vacations after the virus is over? Maybe. Enough people will have the money to spend on that. But I think that number will be few enough that picking one resort company over another might be hard. I wouldn't touch resort companies, unless they fall to a price level where they reflect a deal relative to the slow business they may do if they are not among the lucky.

People will probably drive to places close to them. Oil will probably rebound to something like $30 a barrel. Too high a price will have an effect, though. People won't have money to spend unexpected amounts on fuel when they do go out again. Attempts to drive prices higher because of demand going up will meet with elastic demand, not inelastic demand. But there is some room for a tango with the consumer, as they will have already decided they will go closer to home this time, and they will likely do that by auto.

The base reasons for going solar will likely prevail. Solar should see some growth. I wonder if some states that changed the rules on solar, so that utilities didn't have to buy excess power from individuals, will go back to the way it was? That could really help solar go. I have a few shares of SPWR, for full disclosure. I don't know if they are the best company. I like them for their share price's relative position to past gains they've made when things were better for solar.

I like electrical infrastructure companies. It may be that even among those finding one that will benefit when local municipalities are trying to avoid bankruptcy may be difficult. I wonder if any have packages they can offer that cut down on extraneous costs? Whoever can help those municipalities do what they need to in order to meet their people's needs the cheapest may be the one to buy. Same goes for water. Water will have a problem, though. Many companies that make money selling valves and what not do a lot of business selling basically the same thing to frackers. Water could be a zero sum game.

There must be financial companies that will capitalize upon the weak municipal situation. Somebody, maybe Goldman, will get in there. Two years from now, many localities will be complaining about what they got themselves into, I bet. But you just know that many local politicians will be willing to give away the golden goose for a boost right now.

Will there be an alternative coming to the nursing home model? Those places were huge money makes for those in the loop. I'm sure they will try and keep it going, but there will be more resistance than ever to their business model.

Since many right wingers will be worried about Biden winning in the fall, gun sales will go up. Buying gun makers low could net a person double their investment. But Biden could actually be a molester. If that comes out, and Trump is the obvious alternative to enough people, the high sales might not materialize.

[Newfie]

EU,

Yup, lots and lots of questions. I think NYC real estate will take a bit. You MUST ride the subway. Philly may get a bounce, it is walkable, don’t NEED to ride the subway.

The entire Caribbean basin Ins shut o tourism. The question is how soon can they bring back flights. It already seen an editorial speculating it will be Jan/Feb before things get moving. The islands have largely avoided the virus and many are not anxious to reopen. If they reopen and then get the virus it begs the question “Why did we shut down?”

My financial advisor is worried about inflation and suggesting “physical asset” investments. That makes sense to me. I found a REIT that specializes in cold storage warehouses. I think that’s a winner.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'S')ome random thoughts.

The base reasons for going solar will likely prevail. Solar should see some growth. I wonder if some states that changed the rules on solar, so that utilities didn't have to buy excess power from individuals, will go back to the way it was? That could really help solar go. I have a few shares of SPWR, for full disclosure. I don't know if they are the best company. I like them for their share price's relative position to past gains they've made when things were better for solar.

.

[mmasters]

Picked up some DTO today (double short oil). A week or so ago it was at 300, now it's at 100. With oil at about 25 I think it's going to go back down to 15 or 20. Easy money hopefully!