and so it begins

by **KevO** » Thu 28 Jul 2005, 19:15:44

and so it begins..Are these the first signs of a slow crash?
Yet the Dow reached a record 4 year high tonight???
and if the stock markets don't cool soon, they'll suddenly cool very fast and leave us all crashing very hard
anyway
from
http://www.fcnp.com/521/peakoil.htm
is
The world has never been to peak oil before so we may not immediately recognize what we are seeing. A few months back, most knowledgeable people would have said oil at $60 a barrel would have triggered an economic tsunami by now. But surprise! Here we are and it seems to be business as usual in America with company earnings doing well, the stock market setting some new highs, and thanks to great prices, SUVs and pickups are leaping off dealers' floors and onto America 's highways.

So far this summer oil prices have been jumping up and down depending on which hurricane is or isn't threatening which offshore oilfield, the weekly US oil stocks report, and a little "what is happening in China?" thrown in. The International Energy Agency (keeper of the books on the world's oil supplies and who incidentally haven't had much of a track record recently) says demand — especially from China — is not what it was supposed to be this year, so we can all relax for a while and enjoy the rest of the summer. It may not be 1914 redux after all.

Below the radar of even the most attentive newspaper readers, however, the first stirrings of peak oil reality are starting to trickle in. Not surprisingly, most of these reports come from the poorer parts of the world where $60 oil is simply too much for fragile economies.

Here are a few of the items:

• Last week the BBC reported that dozens were killed in fuel riots across Yemen when the government withdrew subsidies resulting in dramatic price increases.

• All across Indonesia people were lining up at gas stations in response to developing fuel shortages. In one city, half the public transport was inoperable due to a lack of fuel.

• In Zimbabwe , the government has moved to deregulate fuel procurement in the face of severe shortages: waits of hours for buses, gas lines that are blocks long, and a bread shortage. The black market price for gasoline is now ten times the official rate.

• Nearly all the poorer countries make their electricity using diesel generators. Nicaragua , one of the poorest countries in Central America , recently started blacking out the poorer districts between 7 and 10 p.m. , the hours of peak usage.

• Tanzania , with the highest gasoline taxes in East Africa and a chaotic oil marketing system, is seeing its plans for economic growth "suffocated" by high-priced oil. Tanzania also handles fuel for the landlocked states of Malawi , Rwanda , the Eastern Congo , Burundi and Uganda .

• And closer to home, Maxjet put off plans to offer cheap flights from Baltimore to London until spring when the company hopes fuel prices will be cheaper.

At mid-summer, the supply-demand situation remains about the same. OPEC is supposed to be increasing its daily output by some 500K barrels a day and there is evidence from increased tanker charters that this indeed may be happening. In the meantime, production in the non-OPEC countries seems to have dropped by a collective 1.2 million barrels a day below the IEA forecasts for the first half.

Thus, we have learned that $60 oil and the ensuing $2.30 gasoline is not much of deterrent to American driving habits. It is not doing much to the economy, and certainly isn’t stirring up any serious action in the Congress which continues to fuss around with a largely meaningless energy bill. With good economic growth, the US demand for oil continues to increase.

The Chinese continue to claim their economy is growing nicely, suggesting increased demand for oil in the near future.

OPEC and the Russians — the folks with some spare capacity left — seem to have at least squeezed out one last round of production increases in response to calls to stem growth-endangering higher prices. At the same time, many of the world's older non-OPEC oil fields are talking of dramatic drops in production.

If one puts all this together, it is hard to escape the conclusion we just may be very close to Hubbert's peak right now and, some day, 2005 will be declared the year of peak oil.
........................................

KevO

by **Raxozanne** » Thu 28 Jul 2005, 19:24:19

Well I don't know about you but I will be handing out 'Happy Peak Oil Day' cards on Thanksgiving.

by **KevO** » Thu 28 Jul 2005, 19:27:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Raxozanne', 'W')ell I don't know about you but I will be handing out 'Happy Peak Oil Day' cards on Thanksgiving.

by **SHiFTY** » Thu 28 Jul 2005, 19:30:19

What? A handful of poor countries are f**ked. Big news.

More and more oil is being produced, certainly enough to meet demand anyways.

No signs of an economic slowdown in the OECD countries; and China is still growing at 9.5% p.a. as of last quarter. There is nothing to see here, move along.

In the 19th century, people wore sandwich boards saying The End is Nigh! Now they post on the Internet... :-D

by **KevO** » Thu 28 Jul 2005, 19:35:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SHiFTY', 'W')hat? A handful of poor countries are f**ked. Big news.

More and more oil is being produced, certainly enough to meet demand anyways.

No signs of an economic slowdown in the OECD countries; and China is still growing at 9.5% p.a. as of last quarter. There is nothing to see here, move along.

In the 19th century, people wore sandwich boards saying The End is Nigh! Now they post on the Internet... :-D

by **SHiFTY** » Thu 28 Jul 2005, 19:47:37

Prove me wrong, no really... :-D

I think the peak may occur in 2008 or so, but who knows. You need more evidence, more facts.

It is no way to be living thinking that armageddon is just round the corner... Shit, the world came pretty damn close to blowing itself up in 1962 and what the hell did they do? Sing along to the Beatles.

IMHO we should all be frickin celebrating that we're not already living in some post apocalyptic wasteland.

by **merecat** » Thu 28 Jul 2005, 20:33:20

I think you're on the money kevo, 2005 may well be peak year.

by **SD_Scott** » Thu 28 Jul 2005, 21:37:34

You're certainly on the right track. I'm sure the US will continue to get there "fair" share for a while. That's why I don't pay that much attention to the weekly inventory reports.

by **Madpaddy** » Thu 28 Jul 2005, 21:43:08

F..k the poor,

LET THEM EAT CAKE

by **MicroHydro** » Thu 28 Jul 2005, 21:57:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SHiFTY', 'P')rove me wrong, no really... :-D

I think the peak may occur in 2008 or so, but who knows. You need more evidence, more facts.

by **FoxV** » Thu 28 Jul 2005, 23:31:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SHiFTY', 'P')rove me wrong, no really... :-D

by **Petro** » Thu 28 Jul 2005, 23:51:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Madpaddy', 'F')..k the poor,

LET THEM EAT CAKE

by **Eli** » Fri 29 Jul 2005, 00:49:57

FoxV

You obviously do not understand market economics the decline in production of Bp, Exxon and Shell will be made up by production by the other majors.

That is not just me talking that is straight from my stockbroker he is really smart and a very sharp dresser.

by **Golgo13** » Fri 29 Jul 2005, 02:49:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SHiFTY', 'I')MHO we should all be frickin celebrating that we're not already living in some post apocalyptic wasteland.

by **BorneoRagnarok** » Fri 29 Jul 2005, 04:00:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Madpaddy', '
')F..k the poor,

LET THEM EAT CAKE

by **Eli** » Fri 29 Jul 2005, 10:05:20

Borneo

that is closer to what she said. She did not understand at all that the people were starving and had no cake to eat.

I read an article about a man in North Korea, he and his family would eat corn porridge. Which is not bad until you realize that it was the husk the stock the whole plant that they would eat. The man broke down and was brought to tears when he explained how it would always give them indigestion no matter how they cooked it.

by **CARVER** » Fri 29 Jul 2005, 10:40:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'F')oxV

You obviously do not understand market economics the decline in production of Bp, Exxon and Shell will be made up by production by the other majors.

That is not just me talking that is straight from my stockbroker he is really smart and a very sharp dresser.

by **Cyrus** » Fri 29 Jul 2005, 10:59:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')hevron: 6% decline.

by **Kent** » Fri 29 Jul 2005, 11:10:37

Chevron News LINK

by **CARVER** » Fri 29 Jul 2005, 11:14:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cyrus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')hevron: 6% decline.

and so it begins

and so it begins

yup

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