[REAL Green]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'I') do feel ridiculous when I remember wondering 15 years ago if I was buying the last gas powered car I'd ever own. I thought by 2020, oil would be too expensive to use for driving automobiles. Yet here on 20 April, 2020, oil prices went negative because you could not give it away.

[longpig]

I'm the OP, so 21 days later and where are we? $40 negative on WTI, SHUT IT DOWN!!! lol. Yes that is right, someone will pay me $40 to take a barrel of oil.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AsPfdv0pUA
First Negative Interest Rates, Now Negative Oil Prices - Ep 564
63,659 views•Streamed live 14 hours ago

[Carnot]

Ralfy,

You make a good point. Certain members simply cannot accept the concept of peak oil. That is fine by me each to their own. But puerile attacks and comments only confirm what we already know. That their ability to think logically through a theory based upon its merit is absent and because they have nothing left to offer they resort to personal attacks.

Peak Oil is a theory and theories are provided for scrutiny. So far there has not been any proof that Peak Oil exists or not. Peak Oil will only be proven when we wake up one day and realise that oil production cannot be increased (economically). I use the term economically because what will determine when peak oil arrives, and it will, is when the energy inputs are such that there is not enough net energy gain to offset the cost of extraction.

One of learned "friends" cites the success of shale being down to technology. Sure, when I was drilling oil wells 40 years ago things were very different. MDW was being talked about. Now it is real. But where are all the profits in shale oil and gas? Perhaps one or two of the Peak Oil deniers would like to comment. Or is it that they have never set foot on a drilling rig and are merely armchair experts like Daniel Yergin of IHS who is often cited as the debunker of Peak Oil. How he has dined on his Pullitzer Prize.

Then we have those informed experts who believe that electric mobility is the way forward. Good luck with that because producing an electric vehicles is many more times energy intensive than one with a combustion engine and will require a huge amount of high tech materials (including plastics). I do not doubt that oil should not be burned in combustion engines but to produce many of the plastics that are now necessary to produce the food we eat and the homes that we live in requires vast and increasing amounts of crude oil. The is no way we can produce anywhere near enough bioplastics and the same issue of energy inputs remain. I know because I am working on the subject right now. The idea of a circular economy sounds like utopia; the reality is markedly different as many plastics are only able to be downcycled.

That should give the cornucopian deniers something to chew on.

Then I would like to ask the cornucopians how we are going to feed 10 billion people in a soon as 30 years from now and still have a planet worth living on?

[mousepad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Simon_R', '
')average hp 50

[REAL Green]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', ' ')One solar panel generates roughly 30kWh/month. So you will only need 12 panels (4.3MWh / (12*30kWh)), which is enough to supply your yearly driving needs.

[Simon_R]

Hi Mousepad

Revising the figures accordingly

Watts Per Mile 300
average miles 13,000
Kw per american 300 * 13000 = 3900000 = 3.9 Mw
Mw per 75% Americans 19.5 * 150000000 = 585000000 Mw = 585000Tw

Assuming even distribution through 365 days per year

585000 Tw / 365 = 1603tw

Assuming even Charging patterns per 24 hour day

1603 tw / 24 = 66.7 TWH extra needed

in perspective thats an extra 133 CCGT stations going flat out
or
Another 10 of the largest nuclear power stations ever built

and this assumes an even charging pattern, so you could double this in reality to 20 of the largest nuclear stations ever built or 266 CCGT stations.

This assumes no downtime, so realistically these number need a margin for safety and this ladies and gents is just the USA

Thanks

Simon

[mousepad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Simon_R', '
')Another 10 of the largest nuclear power stations ever built

[Simon_R]

Hi Mousepad

the problem is that most cars are driven during the day... when the sun is shining so you would not only need the panels, but supplementary storage and inverters as well (to feed back into the car)
The also pre supposes that all people have the real estate to install the panels, and this kinda rules out anyone in appartments or rented accommodation.
As Dave pointed out the panels vary in efficacy depending on lat and long.
There would also be no charging when you went on holidays ?

its a Gordian knot.

thanks

Simon

[mousepad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Simon_R', 'H')i Mousepad

the problem is that most cars are driven during the day... when the sun is shining so you would not only need the panels, but supplementary storage and inverters as well (to feed back into the car)
The also pre supposes that all people have the real estate to install the panels, and this kinda rules out anyone in appartments or rented accommodation.
As Dave pointed out the panels vary in efficacy depending on lat and long.
There would also be no charging when you went on holidays ?

its a Gordian knot.

thanks

Simon

[mousepad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Simon_R', '
')1603 tw / 24 = 66.7 TWH extra needed

[Simon_R]

Hi Mouse

For an individual yes this makes sense, but (there is always a but)

You would be feeding electricity into the grid during the day (off-peak or MM1 hours) and then drawing it out again at Night (Peak - MM2) ,this means that during the day, we could cycle down a few stations, but we would still need to be able to supply current demand, plus whatever car charging is needed at night.
Currently the Grid is balanced with a significant margin, this allows for a steady supply to put even a small percentage of EV's charging would need extra capacity built out.

Thanks

Simon

[mousepad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Simon_R', 'b')ut we would still need to be able to supply current demand, plus whatever car charging is needed at night.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('REAL Green', '
')Nope, anything that disrupts or disturbs is bad for investing

[Simon_R]

Thus the rollout of smart meters, to expose the retail to the vagaries of the wholesale market.

On the upside, mankind is quite resourceful, we will be fine, but more travel by train, less personal transport, more trams (love those things).
Governments need to realise that trains are a service more than a for profit initiative.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('longpig', 'I')'m the OP, so 21 days later and where are we? $40 negative on WTI, SHUT IT DOWN!!! lol. Yes that is right, someone will pay me $40 to take a barrel of oil.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AsPfdv0pUA
First Negative Interest Rates, Now Negative Oil Prices - Ep 564
63,659 views•Streamed live 14 hours ago

[ralfy]

A theory is something plausible, which in this case means that there's a possibility that production will never peak. I think it's safe to say that that won't happen.

In which case, what's being theorized isn't peak oil but the timing. That will be dependent on many factors. For example,

1. The price. Some are happy that the price has dropped, but it's obvious that oil companies aren't. If the price is too low and given enough time, some companies will close shop. Unless someone else is willing to reopen them, which means paying for their liabilities, then it will be difficult to bring production back online, which means if demand is high enough, then the price will rise once more, but what about production?

2. Financial speculation. Apparently, most don't know anything about futures, etc., where people buy oil that's not yet available using money that they don't have, among many other things. But that doesn't help much, which explains why price goes up and down. What's clear, though, is that as the incredibly gullible laugh as price drops they don't realize that they're income and returns on investment may be dropping, too.

3. Demand. That means few are buying, and that can mean few are buying many other things. That means demand is dropping with earnings.

Etc.

What a capitalist world wants, then, is a steady increase in production needed to meet a steady increase in demand brought about by a steady increase in population plus a steady increase in people who are earning more money to buy more things which means more oil will be needed, etc.

What gets in the way of that is financial speculation, which may help fund production of oil that's more expensive but may also lead to volatile pricing which doesn't help businesses that need to pay for their costs. Add to that financial crashes leading to bailouts, for which recovery takes place by increasing debt. And then there's technology which makes businesses more productive but also encourages people to consume more, not to mention black swans like what's happening right now.

But the real obstacles include a planet with physical limitations plus environmental damage that won't allow for supply and demand to rise steadily. In which case, anyone who thinks a site like this is not necessary can only do so by arguing that none of the points raised above is true.

[C8]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carnot', ' ')Peak Oil is a theory and theories are provided for scrutiny. So far there has not been any proof that Peak Oil exists or not.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('longpig', 'I')'m the OP, so 21 days later and where are we? $40 negative on WTI, SHUT IT DOWN!!! lol. Yes that is right, someone will pay me $40 to take a barrel of oil.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AsPfdv0pUA
First Negative Interest Rates, Now Negative Oil Prices - Ep 564
63,659 views•Streamed live 14 hours ago

[C8]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')1. What a capitalist world wants, then, is a steady increase in production needed to meet a steady increase in demand brought about by a steady increase in population plus a steady increase in people who are earning more money to buy more things which means more oil will be needed, etc.

2. But the real obstacles include a planet with physical limitations plus environmental damage that won't allow for supply and demand to rise steadily.

[longpig]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')our entire post is excellent and, frankly, could have been written by me.