PeakOil is You
Have we hit the peak?
Re: Have we hit the peak?
by shortonoil » Thu 16 Apr 2020, 09:59:12
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's like an instant peak.
The simple truth is that oil can no longer power enough economic activity to generate its own demand. We hit that point for the average barrel, and that was it; instant Peak. It really shouldn't be a surprise, the world has been working diligently on it for 162 years. We can pretend that we still have useable oil, and then we can pretend that we still have food on the table. We have been pretending that depletion wasn't really real, and pretending that it wouldn't really matter. It is one of those it doesn't, until it does, things.
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shortonoil - False ETP Prophet
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Re: Have we hit the peak?
by Revi » Fri 17 Apr 2020, 10:49:49
That's what I have been thinking. Maybe the demise of those stupid cruise ships and flying around to waste fuel are a thing of the past. We are being sold on the notion that business as usual can continue with trips to Disneyworld every winter, when what we really should be doing is planting rutabagas and gathering wood.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Revi - Light Sweet Crude
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Re: Have we hit the peak?
by Revi » Fri 17 Apr 2020, 10:52:11
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's like an instant peak.
The simple truth is that oil can no longer power enough economic activity to generate its own demand. We hit that point for the average barrel, and that was it; instant Peak. It really shouldn't be a surprise, the world has been working diligently on it for 162 years. We can pretend that we still have useable oil, and then we can pretend that we still have food on the table. We have been pretending that depletion wasn't really real, and pretending that it wouldn't really matter. It is one of those it doesn't, until it does, things.
You're talking about around 100,000 btu's per gallon being the net amount of energy supplied by the gallon, or is it the amount it takes to get it? That's a great metric. We can't produce it at less than that and eat at the same time.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Revi - Light Sweet Crude
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Re: Have we hit the peak?
by dolanbaker » Wed 22 Apr 2020, 03:36:52
I came across these two stories on another website, if anywhere remotely correct, then we've peaked and will likely to be facing limited supplies in the mid-term future.
https://us11.campaign-archive.com/?u=de ... c7c4e15d3e 2
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
') The WTI price crash on April 20 confirms that if the Saudis didn’t realize the potential for their strategy’s explosive success before, they certainly do now. They have no reason to back down.
There are a few producers worthy of callouts.
Canada’s Alberta province has the most to lose. Not only landlocked, it must sell all its oil into the American market that is already so saturated. Its production must be shut in for years.
Venezuela was facing civilizational collapse due to mismanagement before oil prices tanked. As oil is the government’s only remaining income stream, this marks the end of Vene as a country. Its oil will not come back for at least a decade, and even then only if an outside power first physically invades the place to rebuild the country from scratch.
America’s sanctions regime against Iran has been so successful the country isn’t an oil exporter any longer. Its output will absolutely collapse this summer, and the country lacks the funds to bring in foreigners to help restart it or the skills to do the work itself.
Russian fields are in swamps and permafrost. Drilling is only possible during the winter. Any shut-ins means the wells freeze solid, necessitating completely new drilling. Last time this happened it took the Russians nearly 15 years to get production back.
Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are both dependent upon other countries (in some cases, Russia) to transit their crude to market. High production costs plus finicky neighbors equals long-haul shut-ins.
Nigeria is a mess on a good day, and the supermajors who have made Nigerian output possible have steadily moved offshore to get away from the chaos and violence. Once they turn off their wells, they won’t even consider returning until global prices rise to the point that they are once again willing to subject their staff to frequent kidnapping. That’s several years off.
Iraq has been in a state of near civil war for some 15 years. The country is now producing over 4mbpd, the income of which helps hold the place together. Negative prices will remove the “near” from the country’s political condition and (at best) make the place a ward of the Arab states of the Persian Gulf.
It is also worth noting that the speed that this could all go from head-spinning to head-chopping is intensely short. Right now there’s still a fair amount of spare oil tankers to shuttle about the world. The Saudis have been leasing out every tanker they can find, so before long all the the world’s tankers will be full as well.
https://us11.campaign-archive.com/?u=de ... c7c4e15d3e 2
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
') The WTI price crash on April 20 confirms that if the Saudis didn’t realize the potential for their strategy’s explosive success before, they certainly do now. They have no reason to back down.
There are a few producers worthy of callouts.
Canada’s Alberta province has the most to lose. Not only landlocked, it must sell all its oil into the American market that is already so saturated. Its production must be shut in for years.
Venezuela was facing civilizational collapse due to mismanagement before oil prices tanked. As oil is the government’s only remaining income stream, this marks the end of Vene as a country. Its oil will not come back for at least a decade, and even then only if an outside power first physically invades the place to rebuild the country from scratch.
America’s sanctions regime against Iran has been so successful the country isn’t an oil exporter any longer. Its output will absolutely collapse this summer, and the country lacks the funds to bring in foreigners to help restart it or the skills to do the work itself.
Russian fields are in swamps and permafrost. Drilling is only possible during the winter. Any shut-ins means the wells freeze solid, necessitating completely new drilling. Last time this happened it took the Russians nearly 15 years to get production back.
Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are both dependent upon other countries (in some cases, Russia) to transit their crude to market. High production costs plus finicky neighbors equals long-haul shut-ins.
Nigeria is a mess on a good day, and the supermajors who have made Nigerian output possible have steadily moved offshore to get away from the chaos and violence. Once they turn off their wells, they won’t even consider returning until global prices rise to the point that they are once again willing to subject their staff to frequent kidnapping. That’s several years off.
Iraq has been in a state of near civil war for some 15 years. The country is now producing over 4mbpd, the income of which helps hold the place together. Negative prices will remove the “near” from the country’s political condition and (at best) make the place a ward of the Arab states of the Persian Gulf.
It is also worth noting that the speed that this could all go from head-spinning to head-chopping is intensely short. Right now there’s still a fair amount of spare oil tankers to shuttle about the world. The Saudis have been leasing out every tanker they can find, so before long all the the world’s tankers will be full as well.
Just to add context, this is what is driving those findings: https://zeihan.com/coronavirus-the-energy-guide/
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ') In terms of global shipments there are really only two ways of moving a lot of crude: by tanker or by pipe. The difference between the two determines how long a producer can hang on in the current, rapidly deteriorating, price environment.
The disadvantage lies with the producers who rely upon pipelines. When demand and storage facilities down-pipeline become maxed out, that’s…it. The pipeline backs up and up-pipeline producers have no choice but to shut-in their production. (There may be some minor shipping via truck or rail, but those options cost more per barrel than pipe and typically first require some new loading infrastructure.)
Shipments via tanker have more flexibility. Ocean-going supertankers can sail to any appropriate port in the world and interface with any coastal demand facility. If one port is full-up, the tanker can just sail to the next.
The Saudis enjoy the second-lowest day-to-day production and second-lowest full-cycle costs in the world (only Kuwaiti oil is cheaper to produce). In addition, all the oil they send to market is via tanker. All else being equal, the Saudis will be the last men standing.
Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful.:Anonymous
Our whole economy is based on planned obsolescence.
Hungrymoggy "I am now predicting that Europe will NUKE ITSELF sometime in the first week of January"
Our whole economy is based on planned obsolescence.
Hungrymoggy "I am now predicting that Europe will NUKE ITSELF sometime in the first week of January"
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dolanbaker - Intermediate Crude
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