[ROCKMAN]

Plant - Exactly. When I first saw the title of the thread thought it was a silly joke. No one ever needs to shutdown any site: if there's no interest then the sites dies a natural death. If there's continued interest it lives on.

It still very funny to me. This thread is just one more justification for the site: the site is necessary to discuss whether it should be shut down or not. Thanks to whoever started this thread. LMFAO!!!

[jedrider]

I miss Montequest. We were suppose to be sucked into the big black hole of fractional banking.

Now it is coronavirus. There will always be something to get us that we can talk about.

[Carnot]

To shut this site down would be a shame. I must confess that certain posters seem to be more interested in causing offence than actually debating. For that reason I backed away as I do not wish to be involved in puerile attacks on others.

Peak oil has been ridiculed for years and some of the claims of imminent doom might have been overplayed. Sadly TOD folded but the intentions of those who posted on TOD were on the whole good. Peak oilers ( and I am one of them ) will have their day, but I would not be foolish to predict when, but a peak in the supply of crude oil will happen. When it does then the world should get ready.

Maybe those of you who care might consider this publication

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... ation.html

Moving forward the world is going to need a whole lot of petrochemicals. Much of those petrochemicals will come from oil, currently about 10% of oil production and growing rapidly.

Shale is going bust; it never has been profitable and never will be. There is a little matter of EROI to consider. Actually I prefer EROEI but in effect the solution is the same. The input costs of shale oil and gas simply make it uneconomic irrespective of the price of oil; it is being subsidised by conventional oil and gas and idiots who believed in all the claptrap on production lasting decades. Fools and their money are soon parted.

I simply despair at the level of ineptitude at of senior executives across the world who have the inability to grasp the facts.

Don't let this site die but overhaul it and invigorate the debate.

[GoghGoner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carnot', 'T')o shut this site down would be a shame. I must confess that certain posters seem to be more interested in causing offence than actually debating. For that reason I backed away as I do not wish to be involved in puerile attacks on others.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carnot', '
')Moving forward the world is going to need a whole lot of petrochemicals. Much of those petrochemicals will come from oil, currently about 10% of oil production and growing rapidly.

[evilgenius]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carnot', '
')Moving forward the world is going to need a whole lot of petrochemicals. Much of those petrochemicals will come from oil, currently about 10% of oil production and growing rapidly.

[C8]

This site will shut down Saturday at midnight when I pull the cord out of the outlet.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'i')f there's no interest then the sites dies a natural death.

[REAL Green]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'i')f there's no interest then the sites dies a natural death.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('REAL Green', '
')Who cares about a “movement” being defunct?

[ROCKMAN]

asg - You seem to have been sucked into the same trap built by so many ignorant of what PO represents. Above all predicting the timing of reaching global PO is a pointless distraction. Also I suspect you are very familiar with the "POD" concept the Rockman coined some time ago. In fact the current demand destruction caused by Covid 19 is a great example of the POD. Granted an extreme event the Rockman (nor anyone else) predicted a year ago. What ever the UNPREDICTABLE date of global PO might have been it obviously has been pushed further into the future. Likewise so has the "green revolution": I doubt many rooftop solar panels will be going up very soon. Or folks unable to pay their rent (or folks who lost a large portion of their wealth) will be running out to buy electric cars. Especially with motor fuel prices tanking.

It's all part of the POD: Peak Oil Dynamic. Some folks need to look up the definition of "dynamic". It's really quit simple.

[REAL Green]

Asg, who knows on an oil crash that is beyond you or I. My point is oil issues with other issues may combine to cause a decline or crash over time. The growing threat of shortages can only do so much. Transition will need an economic foundation and shortages will erode that. So saying one leads to the other is just a maybe not something assured.

There is no evidence EV numbers will scale. They are just a niche now and likely a niche to come for wealthy like yourself. I would like to have an EV eventually but I can’t justify it currently. Battery technology is improving but not enough to make that leap of “transition”. Resources needed for batteries will always be an issue and it is unclear if the economy will be there to drive economies of scale. You are just being wishful.

Solar got cheaper but that cost reductions are fading as the other costs of mitigating intermittency like storage and grid upgrades greatly steepen the cost over a certain point of renewable integration in the grid. We also must consider the economy in these calculations. Will the value chains be there to support lower cost renewables? BTW, I have 3600-watt system with batteries and inverter. It is great for my green prepping but I am not that impressed in regards to cost benefit in an objective analysis with the green part taken out. The grid is cheaper than being green.

Peak oil is a small part of my outlook so spare me your PO label drama. You anti-PO people like to throw that label around like you know somebody.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'I') suspect you are very familiar with the "POD" concept the Rockman coined some time ago.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')You try to put a happy face on current events and say all will be well while you show contempt for others opinion indicating worry.

[REAL Green]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'I') suspect you are very familiar with the "POD" concept the Rockman coined some time ago.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('REAL Green', '
')Rockman's POD is an excellent term that covers all those negative issues the modern world has with increasingly expensive and scare[sic] high quality oil.

[Plantagenet]

I completely agree with REALgreen on this one.

Rockman is one the best longterm contributors to this site, and his Peak Oil Dynamic (POD) idea is a really useful way to think about the interplay of oil prices and the ever receding peak oil.

In fact----HELLO there Rockman. Good to see you back posting at this site, such as it is.

I hope things are going great for you down in Houston.


THREE CHEERS FOR ROCKMAN!!!!! WELCOME BACK!!!!

Cheers!

[REAL Green]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('REAL Green', '
')Rockman's POD is an excellent term that covers all those negative issues the modern world has with increasingly expensive and scare[sic] high quality oil.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('REAL Green', '
')This glut is mainly an economic condition based upon a demand shock.

[ralfy]

This is the reason why forum members should use the ignore function: to ignore those who, after spending so much time in a peak oil forum, still don't understand the issue.

Oil prices can go down if there is financial instability. A glut can take place if demand goes down due to the same instability. None of these shows that production cost is on a downward trend or that diminishing returns, where increasing amounts of funds are needed to extract less new oil each time, are reversed.