by Outcast_Searcher » Sat 04 Apr 2020, 23:54:54
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'M')y point was and remains that people that think the bottom is now or within a few days are looking through rose colored glasses. The bottom will come after all the closures and travel restrictions have ended and bean counters can add up the damage and see what companies will recover and prosper.
Buy in now if you wish, but expect to see some losses for the next three months at least but if you hang on you might get back up to current levels by years end if you chose wisely.
Maybe, and maybe not.
Lots of "market experts commentators" (and I'm CERTAINLY not one) claim that the bottom will be in WELL BEFORE it's clear we're at the peak of the bad news. I have no IDEA when to buy for this. But at least I admit it, instead of presuming to give timing advice.
The point is, apriori, no one knows, though many, many will claim they do. I guess after 40 years of watching this sort of opinions by both experts and laymen, I find it amusing.
Look, if one could consistently out time the market, one could be WILDLY rich. And yet, how often does it happen? I can think of Buffett, from the 50's through the 90's (and he only outperformed by a few percent a year on average) and he was just SCARY smart and ahead of his time.
And even HE has reverted to the mean since then. (A lot of what he had in his head in the 60's, re biographies, computers have (and more accurately and quickly) now. So his data edge is gone.)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.