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Has the Great Decline begun?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby bonehead » Mon 30 Jun 2008, 21:47:50

The Dow just had the worst June since 1930 and oil is now trading at $140.Some people think the bottom for the Dow is 10,000.I think it's gonna go lower than that.Opinions anyone?
Gimme some demand destruction.
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Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby Jack » Mon 30 Jun 2008, 21:54:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bonehead', 'T')he Dow just had the worst June since 1930 and oil is now trading at $140.Some people think the bottom for the Dow is 10,000.I think it's gonna go lower than that.Opinions anyone?


If it goes below 10,750 then it will probably go significantly lower. If it stays above that level, expect it to rally.
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Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby HEADER_RACK » Mon 30 Jun 2008, 21:56:05

Yes I have an opinion. When this really starts playing out- you won't care what the DOW is at.
Nothing is more dangerous than a man with nothing left to lose but has everything left to gain.
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Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby Cashmere » Mon 30 Jun 2008, 22:34:11

How many calories are there in the Dow?
Massive Human Dieoff <b>must</b> occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where <b>you</b> live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
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Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby Nicholai » Mon 30 Jun 2008, 22:41:42

What is so significant about the DOW hitting 10,000 points? Is it just a measurement of confidence in the markets 500 major companies and their future profitability? It seems like markets are made up of nothing but 'confidence'....I cease to understand them in the slightest. All I know is, at 140$ a barrel and with Americans leaving their homes in droves, this is the beginning of the clusterfuck we call industrial civilization...I give it 1 year to a year and a half. 2010 will be a shit storm. Oil at 250$? Yikes!
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Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby biofuel13 » Mon 30 Jun 2008, 23:52:27

I'm thinking that the Dow will hit bottom between 5500 and 6750. My father was a broker for 30 years and always has faith in the markets. Last spring for the first time in his professional life he pulled every penny he has out of the markets. Last summer he was saying the Dow would bottom around 11,000. Now he thinks it's more like 8,000.
"With man gone will there be hope for gorilla? With gorilla gone will there be hope for man?" --Ishmael by D. Quinn
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Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby Milret2 » Tue 01 Jul 2008, 00:42:02

The DOW has a relatively long history. In 1929 it hit an all time high of 381 (since inception at that time) before falling to 41 a couple of years later. It was a mere thirty years later (and a big war) before it ever saw 381 again. A similar loss now would take the DOW to 1135 ... about where it was 23 years ago. If Jim Kunstler is correct in his analysis of peak oil's effect on our markets 1135 will seem not all that bad. I can see his point and I have a least half of my own not inconsiderable assets tied up in investment securities. How ever, if he is right I suspect it does not matter that much one way or another. At least I have had my own share of fun and have no children to worry about.
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Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby SoylentGreen » Tue 01 Jul 2008, 10:57:56

Like you said, the '29 crash didnt happen over night. it took 2 or 3 years for the market to bottom out.
The residential real estate market will not come back.People wont have the $ to buy because all thier $ will go to food and fuel.
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Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby allenwrench » Tue 01 Jul 2008, 15:24:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bonehead', 'T')he Dow just had the worst June since 1930 and oil is now trading at $140.Some people think the bottom for the Dow is 10,000.I think it's gonna go lower than that.Opinions anyone?


I don't know. I don't have a crystal ball.

Much of the stock market was / is fueled by the proliferation of new funds. Without the constant creation of funds to fill their portfolios the stock market would be at lower levels.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia1900.html

But when I think of the stock market I think of Charles Ponzi. The man credited with inventing the first pyramid scheme.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Ponzi

We live in a society of compulsive gamblers and not investors. Watch CNBC and see the Ponzi scheme in action with all the BS they throw at you.

I marvel at the billions lost every day with the sub-prime debacle and how it is replaced at a blink of an eye. The government doesn't have to even print out the money, they just magnetize a silicon chip to create billions.

Consumption is ingrained in us and we know no other way. And even if we wished to amend our ways, how could all our retirement funds take the hit?

Our economy is not based on sustainable health - it is based low interest credit to encourage compulsive spending, debt and living a life of constant consumption with a 'disposable mentality' when it comes to durable goods.

All this consumption to artificially fuel our economy to make our retirement funds only go up contributes to more and more global warming and the depletion of our natural resources.

Then the governments juggle the numbers to make the inflation figures seem artificially low, so everyone's retirement portfolio will make them happy so they will continue to buy and consume more...and on it goes....the bill is coming due soon!
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Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby Buggy » Tue 01 Jul 2008, 19:43:57

Hmmmm. Would decline be the same as paradigm shift? Is what about to happen good or bad? For those who die, is it freedom or imprisonment? For those who live, is it freedom or imprisonment? Aren't we already imprisoned and plugged in to a way of life created to collapse? Should I take the red pill or the blue pill?
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Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby yesplease » Tue 01 Jul 2008, 20:23:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SoylentGreen', 'L')ike you said, the '29 crash didnt happen over night. it took 2 or 3 years for the market to bottom out.
The residential real estate market will not come back.People wont have the $ to buy because all thier $ will go to food and fuel.
It will, just from the inside out. The higher oil prices go the sooner housing in the city will pop up and the more housing in the burbs will drop.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 15 Mar 2020, 20:30:42

Here is a video about decline and options. It covers some history about how the Roman Empire could have taken steps to stay healthy but due to things like political thinking and bureaucratic inertia they failed to adapt.

https://youtu.be/J4o9NdgN8w8
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby GHung » Mon 16 Mar 2020, 09:03:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'H')ere is a video about decline and options. It covers some history about how the Roman Empire could have taken steps to stay healthy but due to things like political thinking and bureaucratic inertia they failed to adapt.

https://youtu.be/J4o9NdgN8w8


Thorium could have saved the Roman Empire??
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 16 Mar 2020, 09:31:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'H')ere is a video about decline and options. It covers some history about how the Roman Empire could have taken steps to stay healthy but due to things like political thinking and bureaucratic inertia they failed to adapt.

https://youtu.be/J4o9NdgN8w8


Thorium could have saved the Roman Empire??

The tragic thing is maybe more than any other civiluzation we could and to some degree did see this DECLINE coming yet did little to forestall or avoid it, And at least to me looks like it will be more a collapse more so than a decline
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Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby Parabolanus » Fri 20 Mar 2020, 23:29:45

It surely is now because of the pandemic.
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Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 04:37:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'H')ere is a video about decline and options. It covers some history about how the Roman Empire could have taken steps to stay healthy but due to things like political thinking and bureaucratic inertia they failed to adapt.

https://youtu.be/J4o9NdgN8w8


Thorium could have saved the Roman Empire??

The tragic thing is maybe more than any other civiluzation we could and to some degree did see this DECLINE coming yet did little to forestall or avoid it, And at least to me looks like it will be more a collapse more so than a decline

So NOW you're claiming you saw COVID-19 coming?

Sure. With what functioning time machine?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby JuanP » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 09:20:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'H')ere is a video about decline and options. It covers some history about how the Roman Empire could have taken steps to stay healthy but due to things like political thinking and bureaucratic inertia they failed to adapt.

https://youtu.be/J4o9NdgN8w8


Thorium could have saved the Roman Empire??

The tragic thing is maybe more than any other civiluzation we could and to some degree did see this DECLINE coming yet did little to forestall or avoid it, And at least to me looks like it will be more a collapse more so than a decline

So NOW you're claiming you saw COVID-19 coming?

Sure. With what functioning time machine?


He is obviously talking about the ongoing global decline, in general, which inevitably entails a number of crises like this one, not to the COVID-19 pandemic, in particular.

I have been prepping for hurricanes, global pandemics, nuclear war, economic collapse, climate change, etc. for decades. I believe all these things will happen sooner or later, including a nuclear war, which is the only one of those that is not 100% certain that will happen. A global pandemic was a matter of when, not if, IMO.

Did you really not understand that or are you pretending that you didn't to pick a fight for some personal reason?
Last edited by JuanP on Thu 26 Mar 2020, 09:50:17, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby GHung » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 09:38:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')
So NOW you're claiming you saw COVID-19 coming?

Sure. With what functioning time machine?


Perhaps not Outcast specifically, but:

#1 Many of us have warned that our economy has been becoming increasingly vulnerable to black swans and that a pandemic was one of the potential black swans that could set an economic collapse into motion. Some of us have incorporated this into our thinking for years.

#2 I recall this same discussion here and in other forums when Davis Korowitz published "Trade-Off: Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion: A study in global systemic collapse".
http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/upload ... e-Off1.pdf
So this exact scenario has been discussed.

#3 Some people here downplayed these ideas, even ridiculed them (repeatedly calling people "doomers" and all that derision); something some of you continue to do. Someone who can't admit that they have been wrong is high on my list of those guilty of cowardice.

#4 We still have no idea how this will play out, globally, but we can be sure that this period will be life-changing for millions (billions?) and that global debt is exploding off the charts and supply chains have been deeply affected, some permanently perhaps. How TF do you think this will unwind???

#5 Many of you claim/pray we will be back to "BAU" in due time; the same BAU that already had humanity on a suicide path,, refusing to acknowledge that limits to growth and finite planetary barriers to said growth truly exist. Considering the response we've seen so far, I tend to agree with the first part. Humanity will, indeed, continue to fuck itself into eventual extinction, utterly incapable of learning from its mistakes. Therefore, I consider taking a "doomer" stand on things a pretty safe bet, even if doomers get a few specifics wrong.

But go ahead and continue to deride the Outcast Searchers here. It says a lot about you folks. After all, whats a few more $trillion piled on top of the mess we already have? Nobody will remember you anyway. They'll be too busy trying to survive the mess you left behind.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 09:52:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e still have no idea how this will play out, globally, but we can be sure that this period will be life-changing for millions (billions?) and that global debt is exploding off the charts and supply chains have been deeply affected, some permanently perhaps. How TF do you think this will unwind???


Is there some part of bankruptcy that is confusing you? The world is out of fresh water, out of fish stocks, out of good top soil, and very soon out of oil. The only thing that it hasn't run out of yet is people. Being absolutely, completely flat broke has a way of playing out in very specific ways.

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Re: Has the Great Decline begun?

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 09:57:28

Hell of a post Ghung. Sorry for your EV fantasy OUTCAST. The very fabric of our Economic system is tearing apart. Maybe a semblance of BAU can continue for a bit longer but resource depletion, including FF, environmental degradation and finally our corrupt venial and yes deranged leaders will insure a total collapse.
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