[Pops]

So separate and apart from a stock market crash is what happens in real life economy.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '�')��What a recession from something like this should look like is a sudden stop and recovery,” said R. Glenn Hubbard, a Columbia University economist who was a top White House economist for President George W. Bush. “What could happen, though, is a doom loop.”

The “doom loop” that Mr. Hubbard and many other economists fear describes a situation in which an even moderately protracted shutdown of economic activity permanently kills waves of small businesses — and possibly entire industries, like airlines — that cannot survive very long without customers.

A typical small business in the United States does not have enough cash on hand to cover even a month of expenses if its revenues are completely disrupted, according to research by the JPMorgan Chase Institute. In minority communities, where profit margins are often narrower, the typical cash reserve is even smaller.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/us/p ... e=Homepage

[Plantagenet]

I have friend here in Alaska who is just opening up a "running" shop specializing in cold weather running....special insulated jackets and running tights and winter shoes with ice studs on the bottom, headlamps and reflective gear for running when there's no daylight in the winter, booties for dogs who run in the winter with their human companions....stuff like that.



I haven't seen her in a few weeks because we haven't been having the regular weekly run since run the governor decreed we must all be socially isolated here in Alaska, but I can't think of a worse time to be trying to start a new business.

I'm still stopping by my favorite restaurant once in a while to get "take-out" and I go to the craft brewery and get growlers of beer, but business is way way down---- they've gone from having a couple hundred people packed in the bar area every night to essentially one person every 10-15 minutes or so coming by to buy a growler.

Cheers!

[Outcast_Searcher]

On the other hand, there's a reason the vast majority of small business startups fail.

LACK OF CAPITAL (implying lack of planning, allowing things to go wrong, needing to change tacks, etc).

It's not like that's anything new.

But sure, if this goes on long enough and deep enough, then a global depression occurs. At that point, far more than just small businesses are at risk.

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')Most small biz has limited cash to weather a complete income goose egg for more than a short while I'm thinking. A bridge loan might help stay afloat for a short while but adding debt on top of loss, when unlike the stock market you are on the hook for everything instead of just your bet, is pretty risky.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')Most small biz has limited cash to weather a complete income goose egg for more than a short while I'm thinking. A bridge loan might help stay afloat for a short while but adding debt on top of loss, when unlike the stock market you are on the hook for everything instead of just your bet, is pretty risky.

[GoghGoner]

Unemployment rate will be near 30% within a week. My company is going down. Wow, can't believe how fast this happened. Instant communism.

This isn't a recession This is collapse.

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')Maybe, in some cases. In your case, you're substituting renting the place out, so you still have income -- (which sounds smart, and kudos). But even if a business isn't funded with significant debt, if one doesn't own the building it's in, then there's often significant ongoing rent, for example. I have a friend who considers himself a "serial enterpreneur", who has failed in about half a dozen businesses over time, but done well in one. In each failure, the rent over time was the killer.

[Cog]

The end result will be to save the economy and let whoever is going to die to do exactly that. I expect by April 1st that decision will be made. The older and retired will have to continue to self isolate as best they can.

Trump has alluded to this in his latest tweet about the cure being worse than the disease. He isn't wrong.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'T')he end result will be to save the economy and let whoever is going to die to do exactly that. I expect by April 1st that decision will be made. The older and retired will have to continue to self isolate as best they can.

Trump has alluded to this in his latest tweet about the cure being worse than the disease. He isn't wrong.

[onlooker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'T')he end result will be to save the economy and let whoever is going to die to do exactly that. I expect by April 1st that decision will be made. The older and retired will have to continue to self isolate as best they can.

Trump has alluded to this in his latest tweet about the cure being worse than the disease. He isn't wrong.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'T')he end result will be to save the economy and let whoever is going to die to do exactly that. I expect by April 1st that decision will be made. The older and retired will have to continue to self isolate as best they can.
Trump has alluded to this in his latest tweet about the cure being worse than the disease. He isn't wrong.

[JuanP]

The latest case fatality rate for the CIA Virus is 15%! What that means is that of all the closed cases in the world, 85% have recovered and been discharged while 15% have resulted in death. This number is up from 9% only a week ago! When combined with the fact that testing is increasing daily (including testing of non symptomatic people) this means that the lethality of this disease is significantly higher than we thought before. For now, every aspect of the CIA Virus Global Pandemic keeps getting worse on a daily basis. This virus will wipe out many, many people over 60 all over the world, maybe a majority of them, particularly those with pre existing medical conditions.

The USA is already the country with the highest number of daily new infections. It is extremely likely that the USA will become the country with the highest number of active cases this week, and the largest amount of deaths next month, according to the latest reports.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Armageddon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JuanP', 'T')he latest case fatality rate for the CIA Virus is 15%! What that means is that of all the closed cases in the world, 85% have recovered and been discharged while 15% have resulted in death. This number is up from 9% only a week ago! When combined with the fact that testing is increasing daily (including testing of non symptomatic people) this means that the lethality of this disease is significantly higher than we thought before. For now, every aspect of the CIA Virus Global Pandemic keeps getting worse on a daily basis. This virus will wipe out many, many people over 60 all over the world, maybe a majority of them, particularly those with pre existing medical conditions.

The USA is already the country with the highest number of daily new infections. It is extremely likely that the USA will become the country with the highest number of active cases this week, and the largest amount of deaths next month, according to the latest reports.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[SeaGypsy]

JuanP, a large part of the numbers mess is to do with timing of tests, particularly in Europe where it's apparent until about a week ago people weren't tested until they were half dead.

This is more detailed data from Friday.

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronaviru ... ianza-dati

[Cog]

Dumb and dumber should be restricted to their own thread to discuss their CIA virus delusions.

[Cog]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JuanP', 'T')he latest case fatality rate for the CIA Virus is 15%! What that means is that of all the closed cases in the world, 85% have recovered and been discharged while 15% have resulted in death. This number is up from 9% only a week ago! When combined with the fact that testing is increasing daily (including testing of non symptomatic people) this means that the lethality of this disease is significantly higher than we thought before. For now, every aspect of the CIA Virus Global Pandemic keeps getting worse on a daily basis. This virus will wipe out many, many people over 60 all over the world, maybe a majority of them, particularly those with pre existing medical conditions.

The USA is already the country with the highest number of daily new infections. It is extremely likely that the USA will become the country with the highest number of active cases this week, and the largest amount of deaths next month, according to the latest reports.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[jedrider]

Shocking news from Thailand:

Elephants being let go from tourism industry and forced to beg for food.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/world/asia/coronavirus-thailand-elephants.html?action=click&module=News&pgtype=Homepage

The tourism industry is obviously devastated by this illness. Definitely a middle class casualty of this virus. But it will bounce back.

Only problem is how to handle this in the interim. Can't have much trust in what politicians are doing. That's for certain.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jedrider', 'S')hocking news from Thailand:

Elephants being let go from tourism industry and forced to beg for food.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/world/asia/coronavirus-thailand-elephants.html?action=click&module=News&pgtype=Homepage

The tourism industry is obviously devastated by this illness. Definitely a middle class casualty of this virus. But it will bounce back.

Only problem is how to handle this in the interim. Can't have much trust in what politicians are doing. That's for certain.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'T')he end result will be to save the economy and let whoever is going to die to do exactly that. I expect by April 1st that decision will be made. The older and retired will have to continue to self isolate as best they can.
Trump has alluded to this in his latest tweet about the cure being worse than the disease. He isn't wrong.

[GHung]

The cure worse than the disease? It's not a freakin cure. What it is is people have decided it's ok to throw Grandpa and Granny out the back of the bus to save an economy that's going down anyway and was never worthy of being saved. Cowards.

Until now I was absolutely clueless as to how far we have fallen.