[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'I') am 62. And I hereby tell all world leaders stop this stupidity. I am ready to perish if the virus infects me. Carry on world. All the best and godspeed.

[Newfie]

Yellow,

I think that what you discuss, focusing on the virus in lieu of climate change, is a part of the human makeup. I’ve been learning just how limited we are, and it’s worse than I thought.

Another thing is I see a lot of climate predictions that say “by 2100...””. I think the average person reads that and thinks “that’s the end point, that’s the worse it will get.” It does not mean that at all, it’s just an arbitrary dot on a graph. The “worse” numbers may be much later like 2400. But we can not wrap our minds around it.

Climate change is but one of the major issues we face. Another is fossil water depletion. That has not caught on in the public mind yet, but it is just as real and perhaps more deadly to humans than climate change.

We have very limited ability to deal with these issues one at a time let alone together.

We are in well over our heads.

[SeaGypsy]

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-03- ... w/12052936

'When (Trump was) asked whether he takes responsibility for his actions, he said not at all.

Health workers and patients say the emergency efforts could not have waited any longer."


They've reported a chasm between the government's promises and the public's reality."

Details in the link..

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'A')nother thing is I see a lot of climate predictions that say “by 2100...””. I think the average person reads that and thinks “that’s the end point, that’s the worse it will get.” It does not mean that at all, it’s just an arbitrary dot on a graph. The “worse” numbers may be much later like 2400. But we can not wrap our minds around it.

Climate change is but one of the major issues we face. Another is fossil water depletion. That has not caught on in the public mind yet, but it is just as real and perhaps more deadly to humans than climate change.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'I') am 62. And I hereby tell all world leaders stop this stupidity. I am ready to perish if the virus infects me. Carry on world. All the best and godspeed.

[Cog]

This thread basically regurgitates Orange Man Bad and I hope everyone in the USA dies because they elected him and capitalism is evil.

Comical.

[SeaGypsy]

If it makes you feel any better Cog, Obama had 8 years to prepare better for this & instead spent a trillion odd on messing in the middle East for no gain. It's too late now to know if he would have handled what's happening even marginally better than Trump. Too early to know where it goes next. I doubt any sane person would want to be an elected leader in the current circumstances.

[Ibon]

Remember what both democrat and republican administrations used as a justification for spending those trillions in the middle east?

To keep Americans safe.....

Question. How many respirators can you buy for a trillion dollars?


Point being if we learn anything from this crisis it will be to invest and build resiliency at home and stop these aggressive imperial misadventures overseas.

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'i')f we learn anything....

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'P')oint being if we learn anything from this crisis it will be to invest and build resiliency at home and stop these aggressive imperial misadventures overseas.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')"We" won't give that up until we overthrow the plutocracy...

[asg70]

Ibon is the one who keeps saying that we're in the age of consequences and that this is something to look forward to. Well, here it is. Why stew in bitterness? Let the consequences happen and see if it acts as a teachable moment.

That being said, I am all for a technocracy, not technically democracy or republic. Institute some sort of basic examination to be able to vote or run for office and people like Trump would never be able to serve or be elected. I don't think that will ever happen but hey, if everyone's gonna go round the room with their wish-lists.

[Newfie]

ASG,

You bring up some good points about attempting to fix the mess we are in.

I have thought about the IQ test but reject it as some of the smartest folks I know were illiterate and some of the dumbest highly educated. I th ink the problem is with the IQ test because it test only for a certain type of intelligence. Our ability to perform some particular “tricks.”

I suggest a different form of reform. First I think our political parties have become a sort of feudalism. The incumbents sitting on their fiefdoms requiring taxes if you want favors from them. That system needs to be dismantled. And I think there is a general acknowledgment if this in the public, that’s a good part of the reason for the support behind both Trump and Sanders. Neither one are party loyalist, they come from outside the party. Trump seems to be absorbing, being absorbed by the R’s while Sanders remains an outsider to the D’s.

So in extreme brevity here are my proposals for consideration and improvement.

PRESIDENT
7 nominees drawn at random from the ranks of ex-governors, in a 2 stage run off. VP’s drawn from the same pool. The whole thing completed in 6 months. That should do a lot to remove the Party influence AND strip out big money. Surely out of 7 ex-governors we can find one better than Trump/Hillary/Biden/Romney/Bush.

HOUSE
Make it a mandatory DRAFT from the general population, run by the Selective Service. There should be some criteria, the Selective Service can get selected candidates. Pull a first draft of 100, wireless them down, then a second random draft to pick the “winner.” You serve 2 years, the can opt out or run for re-election. If approved you serve another term, if not approved by 50% then select another by the same process. 3 terms max.

I don’t know what to do with the Senate so I’d leave it alone for now.

I think that largely we are attempting similar results. Differing methods. And maybe someone else has an even better idea.

But what is for sure is it’s madness to keep applying the same rules we have and expecting to get better results.

[Ibon]

Here is todays ramble with Sea Gypsy and Ibon

Following that? Looks like you were ahead on the predicted capitulation.
Looks like in two weeks he's saying "sorry old sick people but...."
Jeffrey
Yep I bet that will happen before too long. Sustained collectivist sacrifice is not in the cultural genes of Americans..... better let the old die and let this virus rip through the population. People will look at this like a sports game, winners and losers. And the winners get the prize of rebooting the economy. A big part of the problem is the short attention span of most Americans who are hooked on their digital devices where the expectation of instant gratification is always making people impatient to have it all right away... The long isolation and boredom is unbearable to a culture that is neurologically addicted to constant instant stimulation of consumption. Consumption of stuff or digital media, its all the same..... On your boat you know long periods of silence or driving your truck. Most people squirm with too much space and silence and lack of activity.

Yeah mmmm so how do you think they will go with 20% or so of 75+ all of a sudden carking it? I guess it's better than civil war
Did you see the latest stats from Italy? I will find them just a sec

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronaviru ... ianza-dati

Sorveglianza integrata COVID-19: i principali dati nazionali
Sorveglianza integrata COVID-19: i principali dati nazionali Con l’ordinanza del n. 640 del 27 febbraio 2020, l’Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS), dal 28 febbraio, coordina un sistema di sorveglianza che integra a livello individuale i dati microbiologici ed epidemiologici forniti dalle Region...
epicentro.iss.it

Links embedded

Jeffrey
I am 63 years old this year
Those death percentages are alarming. translate over to the US population without flattening the curve if Trump gets impatient and relaxes restrictions

I just googled there's at least 50+ million Americans over 65. So in round figures that's 10 million dead
Without looking at us toughies in our Fab 50's & early 60's
Jeffrey
3% of the total population. Spanish flu is 1918-19 estimated 3-5%

& yeah minus the curve flattening it's going to be higher of course
Going to be a lot of very unhappy people when grandpa suddenly carks it
So 10 million is if anything conservative if it's let run. Since Italy took off it's way higher than 3% of infections.
44% of closed cases are dead.

8.5 % of all cases are dead including people they diagnosed yesterday.
Average from first symptoms to death is 14 days
Looks like a big gamble for Mr T
Jeffrey
since death happens fast to those critically ill and since the full recovery of those sick takes quite a number of weeks, these percentages look really bad but should come down somewhat as more recover. Is that right?

It's really difficult to wrap my head around & I'm usually pretty good with stats
Jeffrey
I am not good with stats honestly.....

They are a flipping mess in this case anyway that's pretty evident.
The most telling is that screenshot from the Italian published data, did you open the full attachment graphic?
Jeffrey
Yes I did and have been looking at that

The people dying now had it 10-16 days ago
Jeffrey
deaths per day in Italy has been going up daily and has flattened the last couple of days...... don't know if that is statistically significant... need to see more data in the days ahead.

Looks like. So assuming the demographic exposure spread was reasonably even then, the death rate is probably reasonably extrapolated, going up because more cases in triage/ written off with no help
Jeffrey
if it continues to flatten and then go down then we see the positive effects of social isolation that started a couple weeks ago......
And then once the death rate falls within the hospitals capability to treat critical patients the death rate should drop much faster.

It's gone from 8% overall to 13% overall in a few days, resolved cases, as the numbers are now more effected by Europe.
Jeffrey
not the death rate but the number of critically ill

I don't think we can trust China's data really. The best outside of China is South Korea
Jeffrey
I agree. everyone agrees with that actually

The critically Ill numbers make zero sense
If you look at the worldometer page & scroll down the countries, the most questionable data is the critical count
Way higher percentages dying than critical

SK

Italy
Like it's a totally different disease
& Germany & The US having almost none critical but people dying plenty
Jeffrey
or is this because in S Korea they 8000 total cases which were managed with available respirators and ICU units where as Italy has 40,000 plus cases overwhelming their ICU units. That to me explains the difference. Or is there some other factor we are not seeing?

I have to ignore those critical case figures they just don't stack up. SK had a far better testing rate, still do, testing loads of non symptomatic people while it appears Italy must have been at least at the start only testing people near death
Jeffrey
that makes sense

I'd say the available equipment both testing & in hospitals must have a lot to do with it too

So yeah the best extrapolation I can make is blending those two data sets & filtering them. Arrives at the US death rate ending up more like Italy than SK, because the US has botched the tests, will very soon be in triage. With Corona patients competing for beds based on their insurance status & cash

Plus if Trump goes ahead with open for business in 2 weeks- mmmm
Jeffrey
yep, he has a habit of tweeting his impulses but in this case he may have no choice but to follow what the experts and the numbers point to. He cannot simply open up business as usual in 2 weeks when exactly in the next 2 weeks we have exponential growth of critically ill dying and overwhelming the hospitals.

Yep it's still the devil or deep blue sea for Mr T
Jeffrey
its not all about trump. we have those restless americans who are not socialized toward collectivism.

Yeah but a hell of a lot of them have grannies
Jeffrey
cant keep them long in isolation since this is an instant gratification culture with no practice in patience
that is true
but alot of americans have their grannies in old peoples homes and only visit them once a month. there is not the tight extended family bond. Many wont give a shit
old people are expendable will be an accepted meme for many
trump will tap into that
in his attempt to put the economy before the dying

I know some hard core rednecks, ex military guys tough as nails on the outside, their weakest spot is their kids, followed by their parents. Yeah they dump them in nursing homes. But the collective guilt & shame will damage them immensely
Jeffrey
or to put his electibility before the dying
Yes that is a good point...... flippant disregard for the aged will create an outrage. But you know how the spin works...... how to make this out like it was inevitable as the virus targeted the aged and we did the best to respond bla bla bla

I see what you are getting at, & I think that's the most likely scenario. But I think it's still a full on disaster for him & his government, the country. They are willing to clock up infinite debt to prop up corporations, but not for the people.
That scenario won't wash any time soon anywhere else. So say he goes ahead with it, 10-20 million early deaths, places like here, NZ, EU, half the death rate. Some kind of hero.

If you look at any flattening the curve projections, they have Trump's scenario peaking very high in about 2 months. They have ours & Europe's peaking in 4-6 months. Positive for Trump scenario is it's over pretty much by July, you take your number, make it or don't, herd immunity, presto, boom times again. Assuming the people don't decide to Lynch the government. In the Euro/ Oz/ NZ scenario it drags on for up to around 2 years, goes in waves, meanwhile economic wipe out

So just maybe, as leader of the "free world" he gets to lead us all into letting a few hundred million die in a hurry in the name of prosperity. What a legacy

10:57 AM
Jeffrey
your analysis sounds very plausible. You have to also remember that 80% of the American public can not name a single country in Europe on a map. What ends up happening outside the USA is never really communicated to the local public and they frankly dont care. SO if the death rate in the USA is 10 times higher than elsewhere this never really registers with your typical provincial american
Jeffrey
I was out with my staff bagging coffee for the past 2 hours.
v

[Newfie]

OK, but kinda breezes through that. My guess is that Mr Trump and his advisors are having similar discussions.

This discussion is I think overlapping a lot with the one Cog just started TRUMP SIGNALS CHANGE or something.

My thoughts are there.

This thing is gonna milk people period. Whether they die from the virus directly or indirectly from the knock on economic effects is a difficult out question. Whipping out 401ks and jobs will surely sicken the country and result in deaths through suicide, drug addiction, lack of elder care, what ever. Who knows??

The “truck” is to minimize those two curves. How the bell one does that, or even draws the curves is waaay beyond my pay grade.

I’m just not feeling in the mood to criticize when I’m pretty darn sure I could not do better. If anyone could do better.

It’s a bloody mess in many ways.

[SeaGypsy]

Absolutely a mess Newfie & as you see neither myself or Ibon are claiming to have the answers. This is the first time our discussions have been made public & not everything we are saying is in the copy. But yes in a nutshell it's the devil or the deep blue sea, not just for Trump but all elected politicians. I'm not for instance sure that Obama might have handled things differently up until now, he seems eerily quiet. My biggest worry is Trump blowing off rhetorically about China & the blame culture, leading to war with China for no worthwhile reason. Obama would at least have been able to apologise & man up. A lot remains to be seen. Clinton I wouldn't give 10 cents to.

[Ibon]

I was thinking today how Trump does reflect the culture at large in having this very short attention span and impatience sitting in place waiting with prudence to allow enough time to play out as he makes an impossible decision between the pressure cooker of long term lock up and the need to jump start the economy. Just give all the folks in lock down another couple of weeks and they will be crawling the walls.

Grandmothers and grandfathers be damned I want to get out and eat a Krispy Kreme donut.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'I') was thinking today how Trump does reflect the culture at large in having this very short attention span and impatience sitting in place waiting with prudence to allow enough time to play out as he makes an impossible decision between the pressure cooker of long term lock up and the need to jump start the economy. Just give all the folks in lock down another couple of weeks and they will be crawling the walls.

Grandmothers and grandfathers be damned I want to get out and eat a Krispy Kreme donut.

[SeaGypsy]

What happens if Trump goes ahead but most states say FU we are sticking with flattening the curve? That can happen right? Isn't that the likelihood?

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'W')hat happens if Trump goes ahead but most states say FU we are sticking with flattening the curve? That can happen right? Isn't that the likelihood?