by Outcast_Searcher » Sat 14 Mar 2020, 23:44:59
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'T')hink I need to schedule a call with my broker to look at rebalancing my portfolio. There will be some buying opportunities. I’m just not sure what they will be. Cruise lines are down 60% to 80%, that’s a bunch. But some may not survive and a lot of their customers are the worst hit demographic. So I’m not sure if that market.
FWIW, basic, solid asset allocation makes a HUGE difference over time, and is a hell of a lot safer than trying to pick specific winners, ESPECIALLY when the system is under a lot of stress, like it could be with COVID-19 for awhile.
So if you desire to be, for example, 50% stocks and 50% safer stuff like cash and short term bonds, and the market declines by half, then a couple things to note:
1). With the market down half, you'd only be down roughly 25%, if you were in "the market", via broad indexes like the S&P 500, etc.
2). To get back to 50/50, you'd double the number of stocks you have. So then if the market recovered over time, you'd end up with twice your former stock holdings, and 2/3rds of your cash (ignoring interest, since rates are so low).
Obviously that's way oversimplified with only 2 asset classes, but that's the basic idea.
So that's one way to go. That's more or less what I did in 2008/2009, though I didn't wait for the bottom to buy (though kept on buying periodically, including at the bottom). But it was easy buying things like the S&P 500 with a yield of over 4%, even as wild as things were then. With that, I was willing to wait 5 or 10 years for a full recovery. With stock X, that would have been too much risk, given what was going on.
Oh, and as Plant just mentioned -- you SURE don't need to buy all at once. The lower the market goes, the better the deals (and yield) on solid broad indexes. Whatever the news from day to day and week to week, I'd be truly amazed if the volatility suddenly just faded away.
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And I have NO idea what the markets will do in the short run, and this is NOT "investment advice", just an idea to nibble on.
I am rather confident that this too will pass, and over 2 or 3 decades, that markets will continue to grow. I suspect we have much worse things we'll see as the new normal as AGW proceeds, though they may not hit as suddenly. For one thing, with the warming temperature, we could see more frequent pandemics, just like flood planes are changing.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.