Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Info About Heavy and/or Sour Crudes

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Info About Heavy and/or Sour Crudes

Unread postby spot5050 » Wed 27 Jul 2005, 17:28:39

Does anyone know of a page that shows not just the headline oil price (brent crude, WTI) but also prices of different 'mixes' - if that's what they're called?

Charts would be even better.

Many thanks.

EDITED: I updated the title of this thead to be more meaningful - BP
spot5050
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 518
Joined: Tue 07 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Cheshire, England

Unread postby meekoil » Wed 27 Jul 2005, 17:31:01

I like 321 Energy
User avatar
meekoil
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 114
Joined: Mon 11 Jul 2005, 03:00:00

Unread postby bobcousins » Wed 27 Jul 2005, 19:02:24

Lots of commodity and futures stuff here http://advfn.com/p.php
It's all downhill from here
User avatar
bobcousins
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1164
Joined: Thu 14 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Left the cult

Unread postby BabyPeanut » Wed 27 Jul 2005, 21:58:23

Is what you want the price of heavy, sour crude oil as a chart? I've often wondered about that.

This isn't quite that but it's a start:

http://www.nexeninc.com/files/Annual_Re ... ty_mda.pdf

Some terminology worth studying
"crude spreads" - the difference in price between good and bad crude.
MAYA - Mexican heavy, sour
MARS - sour from Deepwater
http://www.dnr.state.la.us/SEC/EXECDIV/ ... _topic.pdf
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')hell Oil Company has made several discoveries in the Mississippi Canyon area of the
deepwater Gulf. Shell’s production from Ursa, Mensa, and Mars platforms commingles with
production from the Amberjack pipeline volumes to make up the MARS Blend sour crude oil
(“sour” referring to sulfur content).


http://www.energybulletin.net/3639.html
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or example, Figure 2 shows that as the price of crude oil has risen over the past two years in all grades (e.g., light, sweet WTI; medium, sour Mars; and heavy, sour Maya) the spread between WTI and Maya has widened to around $15/bbl. versus $9/bbl. in the first half of 2004, $6-7/bbl. last fall, and around $5-6/bbl. at this time two years ago. At $15/bbl. less than WTI, the price of Maya is very close to the politicians’ “correct” price of $30/bbl. Other crude spreads show similar patterns. Mars now trades at a discount to WTI around $9/bbl. versus $4-5/bbl. in the first half of 2004, $3-4/bbl. last fall, and $2-3/bbl. two years ago.

Image


Bingo:

http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_fil ... 050722.pdf
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')TI less MAYA $13.12

Does this mean with WTI about $53 that MAYA would be about $40 since "WTI less MAYA" is about $13 and 53 - 40 = 13?

In that table "WTI less MAYA" keeps getting bigger--from $7.18 2Q 03 to $13.12 2Q 05. Does this mean that the market for MAYA is flooded and the supply is exceeding the demand causing the price to drop?

http://www.energypulse.net/centers/arti ... m?a_id=886
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hether OPEC literally produces the marginal barrel of oil is not the question any longer. The question is whether the marginal barrel can be refined by the marginal worldwide refining capacity into the marginal products at the benchmark marginal prices. The answer is no both on the crude side and the products side. In short, the issue isn’t that the price of oil is “too high.” The issue is that for several reasons the benchmark crude definitions used to determine “too high” are no longer appropriate. In recognition of this fundamental shift in the oil industry, some organizations (e.g., Platt’s) have been exploring the possibility of changing the world benchmarks to heavier, more sour crude grades (e.g., Mars) but change is slow in coming.

But the demand for MAYA is tempered by the ability to process it being limited.
BabyPeanut
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3275
Joined: Tue 17 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Location: 39° 39' N 77° 77' W or thereabouts

Unread postby spot5050 » Thu 28 Jul 2005, 08:23:19

Thanks. That's exactly the sort of stuff I was after. Very interesting.

The above implies that the various grades will peak at slightly different times, for example sweet peaking earlier than sour.

Does that fact partly explain why the ecomomy is still growing at a healthy rate of knotts even though we are supposedly at the peak of oil output? The world economy has barely even blinked - it has taken the high headline price in its stride. Maybe thats partly because the headline price is misleading to the tune of up to $15 per barrel. $45 isn't nearly as much of a problem as $60.

Extract from the earlier EnergyPulse link;

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Harry Chernoff', 'A')lthough there is considerable disagreement within the industry over the date Hubbert’s Peak will be reached, there is no disagreement that the worldwide peak in production for the lightest, sweetest grades has long passed.

Is that true? Does the whole industry agree that light-sweet has peaked?
spot5050
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 518
Joined: Tue 07 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Cheshire, England
Top

Unread postby nth » Wed 03 Aug 2005, 20:48:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spot5050', 'T')hanks. That's exactly the sort of stuff I was after. Very interesting.

The above implies that the various grades will peak at slightly different times, for example sweet peaking earlier than sour.

Does that fact partly explain why the ecomomy is still growing at a healthy rate of knotts even though we are supposedly at the peak of oil output? The world economy has barely even blinked - it has taken the high headline price in its stride. Maybe thats partly because the headline price is misleading to the tune of up to $15 per barrel. $45 isn't nearly as much of a problem as $60.

Extract from the earlier EnergyPulse link;

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Harry Chernoff', 'A')lthough there is considerable disagreement within the industry over the date Hubbert’s Peak will be reached, there is no disagreement that the worldwide peak in production for the lightest, sweetest grades has long passed.

Is that true? Does the whole industry agree that light-sweet has peaked?


This is wrong. Sweet crude may or maynot peak before sour crude. There is going to be more sweet crude coming online next year than sour crude. All the development in West Africa and Caspian have significant new sweet crude. Those are the major oil fields being developed by 2010.
User avatar
nth
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1978
Joined: Thu 24 Feb 2005, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Info About Heavy and/or Sour Crudes

Unread postby BabyPeanut » Tue 16 Aug 2005, 14:35:06

I updated the title of this thread to be more meaningful.
BabyPeanut
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3275
Joined: Tue 17 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Location: 39° 39' N 77° 77' W or thereabouts


Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests

cron