[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', 'R')e the US treasury yield curve going positive in mid October, moving more strongly positive in November, and US treasury interest rates rising meaningfully, that would seem to put a big dent in the "US recession is certain and soon" argument...

[EdwinSm]

Time for the November update (dated 21st November 2019).

THE TIME IS AT HAND (ie it seems very close now)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. declined 0.1 percent in October to 111.7 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in both September and August.

“The US LEI declined for a third consecutive month, and its six-month growth rate turned negative for the first time since May 2016. The decline was driven by weaknesses in new orders for manufacturing, average weekly hours, and unemployment insurance claims,”

[marmico]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')either seem to show dramatic changes, but it is not looking good going forward - only this is happening in slooooow motion.

[Cog]

Facts come in and harsh the doomer buzz.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marmico', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')either seem to show dramatic changes, but it is not looking good going forward - only this is happening in slooooow motion.

[copious.abundance]

US Leading Economic Indicators Plunge At Worst Rate Since 2009
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') worse-than-expected 0.3% MoM drop in the Conference Board leading economic index, ending the year with 5 down months in the last six.

The biggest positive contributor to the leading index was stock prices at 0.09

The biggest negative contributor was jobless claims at -0.23

The LEI is clearly not recovering...

[marmico]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he biggest negative contributor was jobless claims at -0.23

[copious.abundance]

Jobs report came out today. It included the annual benchmark revisions for the year ending March of last year. To reiterate that things were starting to weaken when I started this thread, that time period was revised down by a hefty 514,000.

January adds a much stronger-than-expected 225,000 jobs, with a boost from warm weather
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here was one piece of bad news as well pertaining to benchmark revisions the department incorporates into its historical count. This year showed a decline in the total nonfarm employment for the year ending March 2019 of 514,000, a bit higher than the 500,000 that economists had expected and were indicated back in August.

[Armageddon]

You haven’t seen anything yet. Just wait till this Corona virus destroys the global supply chain. Factories all over China are already shut down

[copious.abundance]

Of course, this also means there's a 30% chance a recession won't happen in the next 6 months.

There’s a 70% chance of recession in the next six months, new study from MIT and State Street finds
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here’s a 70% chance that a recession will hit in the next six months, according to new research from the MIT Sloan School of Management and State Street Associates.

The researchers created an index comprised of four factors and then used the Mahalanobis distance — a measure initially used to analyze human skulls — to determine how current market conditions compare to prior recessions.

[...]

Using this principle, the researchers analyzed four market factors — industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, stock market return and the slope of the yield curve — on a monthly basis. They then measured how the current relationship between the four metrics compares to historical readings.

Looking at data back to 1916, the researchers said that the index was a reliable recession indicator since it rose leading up to every prior recession. They found that when the index topped 70%, the likelihood of a recession in the next six months rose to 70%.

As of November 2019, the reading on the index was 76%.

[Armageddon]

Janet Yellen: We didn't see the 2008 financial crisis coming

[marmico]

The payroll growth rate will continue to decline. It's demography. The US economy has faced declining payroll growth since 2000 and low productivity growth since 2005. The economy is aggregate hours (demography) times output per hour (productivity).





The decline in payrolls of ~30 basis points due to benchmark revisions was somewhat offset by a ~10 basis point increase in aggregate hours.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', '[')url=https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-leading-economic-indicators-plunge-worst-rate-2009]US Leading Economic Indicators Plunge At Worst Rate Since 2009[/url]
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') worse-than-expected 0.3% MoM drop in the Conference Board leading economic index, ending the year with 5 down months in the last six.

The biggest positive contributor to the leading index was stock prices at 0.09

The biggest negative contributor was jobless claims at -0.23

The LEI is clearly not recovering...

[copious.abundance]

Yes, there are a few spots on that chart where a sideways pattern for a little while didn't turn into a decline but were more like in a consolidation phase. So we'll have to wait and see.

One other economic release out today was the JOLTS report. And job openings are pretty much in freefall. (source)

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'O')f course, this also means there's a 30% chance a recession won't happen in the next 6 months.

There’s a 70% chance of recession in the next six months, new study from MIT and State Street finds

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'Y')ou haven’t seen anything yet. Just wait till this Corona virus destroys the global supply chain. Factories all over China are already shut down

[Armageddon]

This Is What Happened After One Chinese Company Rushed To Reopen After The Corona-Chaos


https://www.zerohedge.com/health/what-h ... rona-chaos


Yeah, let’s get them all those factories up and running ASAP

[shortonoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his Is What Happened After One Chinese Company Rushed To Reopen After The Corona-Chaos

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'Y')es, there are a few spots on that chart where a sideways pattern for a little while didn't turn into a decline but were more like in a consolidation phase. So we'll have to wait and see.

One other economic release out today was the JOLTS report. And job openings are pretty much in freefall. (source)

[copious.abundance]

I am pretty sure you are the first person on this board to ever lump me in as part of a "doom patrol."