[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aspera', '
')As for asking for specifics. I had thought that you were suggesting particular posts on this site that I could consult. My mistake.

[aspera]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'I')'m particularly interested in the first one you mentioned. Can you get it in PDF form, upload it somewhere and PM me a link?

[aspera]

A review of EROEI-dynamics energy-transition models.
by Craig D. Rye & Tim Jackson
Energy Policy (2018) 122: 260-272.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.06.041
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... via%3Dihub
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1J4VNv ... QsGorpZE3p

Highlights (from ScienceDirect website)
• Energy-economy interactions can be insightfully simulated in terms of EROEI.
• The EROEI modelling literature highlights a common set of dynamics for energy transitions.
• Principally, energy constraints could drive a reduction in 21st century material prosperity.
• The development of EROEI modelling literature can be studied and divided into sub groups.
• A number of key areas for additional work are identified and discussed.

Abstract (from article) [emphasis added]
The need for an environmentally sustainable economy is indisputable but our understanding of the energy-economy interactions (dynamics) that will occur during the transition is insufficient. This raises fascinating questions on the future of economic growth, energy technology mix and energy availability. The crucial interactions between energy and economy systems can be usefully described in terms of the Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI) metric (the energy cost of primary energy production). Multiple authors have used this metric to explore the behaviour of the economy over the transition to lower carbon energy sources. The following text is a review of energy-economy models that incorporate the EROEI metric. In particular, the EROEI dynamics literature is found to describe a common set of dynamics associated with the transition to lower EROEI primary energy resources. These include: the rising resource-cost of primary energy production, the short-term misallocation of resources, the short-term overproduction of energy and the potential decline in economic stability. The literature can be divided into groups of related models. Following the review, a number of key areas for additional work are identified and discussed.

[shortonoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ome fairly simple calculations tell us when it has to happen "by"; but they don't tell us if it will happen "before". Like a ball game at 20 to 0 in the top of the ninth we are now just running down the clock. In the interlude we get entertained by a Washington, DC rerun of the Young and the Restless starring a cast of Carrot Top, and the wicked witch of the East, Fossil Face Pelosi. Enjoy the show, its free unless one happens to be a tax payer.

[aspera]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'B')ut, EROEI is a difficult metric from which to get comprehensive results in economic terms; it is a time, and position dependent variable.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aspera', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'I')'m particularly interested in the first one you mentioned. Can you get it in PDF form, upload it somewhere and PM me a link?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '
')Except for the fact that I own oil, and gas mineral rights in 3 states, and have worked for a number of fortune 500 companies, including several minor oil firms.

[dissident]

Give it a rest, shill. Your "logic" that if some metric or concept is not known in an industry makes it invalid is pure retarded nonsense. It is routine for various human groups engaged in money making to be willfully blind to:

1) the long term viability of their activity/racket
2) the consequences of their activity/racket to the environment and other humans.

EROEI at least tries to tie the oil industry branch analysis to physics. Not voodoo accounting where magical dollars can violate mass-energy conservation, and as long as the Pancho Villa crew at the Fed can print some more fiat everything will be hunky dory.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', 'G')ive it a rest, shill. Your "logic" that if some metric or concept is not known in an industry makes it invalid is pure retarded nonsense. It is routine for various human groups engaged in money making to be willfully blind to:

1) the long term viability of their activity/racket
2) the consequences of their activity/racket to the environment and other humans.

EROEI at least tries to tie the oil industry branch analysis to physics. Not voodoo accounting where magical dollars can violate mass-energy conservation, and as long as the Pancho Villa crew at the Fed can print some more fiat everything will be hunky dory.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s rockdoc has pointed out repeatedly, until oil companies are worrying a lot about EROEI, the business of producing oil seems to be going just fine.

[aspera]

Energy expenditure, economic growth, and the minimum EROI of society.
by Florian Fizaine & Victor Court
Energy Policy (2016), 95: 172-186

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.04.039
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1VbyLy ... d14X0hl1HL

Abstract: [emphasis added]
We estimate energy expenditure for the US and world economies from 1850 to 2012. Periods of high energy expenditure relative to GDP (from 1850 to 1945), or spikes (1973–74 and 1978–79) are associated with low economic growth rates, and periods of low or falling energy expenditure are associated with high and rising economic growth rates (e.g. 1945–1973). Over the period 1960–2010 for which we have continuous year-to-year data for control variables (capital formation, population, and unemployment rate) we estimate that, statistically, in order to enjoy positive growth, the US economy cannot afford to spend more than 11% of its GDP on energy. Given the current energy intensity of the US economy, this translates in a minimum societal EROEI of approximately 11:1 (or a maximum tolerable average price of energy of twice the current level). Granger tests consistently reveal a one way causality running from the level of energy expenditure (as a fraction of GDP) to economic growth in the US between 1960 and 2010. A coherent economic policy should be founded on improving net energy efficiency. This would yield a “double dividend”: increased societal EROEI (through decreased energy intensity of capital investment), and decreased sensitivity to energy price volatility.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aspera', '[')b]A coherent economic policy should be founded on improving net energy efficiency.

[aspera]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '
')
aspera wrote:
A coherent economic policy should be founded on improving net energy efficiency.

[shortonoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s rockdoc has pointed out repeatedly, until oil companies are worrying a lot about EROEI, the business of producing oil seems to be going just fine.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat is another absolutely retarded comment! Just because the "industry" doesn't use
gas chromatography, or the Riazi’s property distribution model, or about 10,000 other methodologies does not mean they are not pertinent to the understanding of petroleum, and its production. By starting with a completely false assumption (that is; if the industry does not use it, it is irrelevant by definition) and then building an argument around it is the epitome of disingenuous deceit. It is a half lie build on a false truth, and then declared absolute apriori. The purpose of ERoEI is to gain a better understanding of the status of petroleum depletion, and how long affordable petroleum will be available to the society. If some Texan wants to pump oil out of the ground, and not use ERoEI that is fine. He is not being paid for his intellectual prowess.

[dissident]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s rockdoc has pointed out repeatedly, until oil companies are worrying a lot about EROEI, the business of producing oil seems to be going just fine.

[aspera]

Dynamic Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI) and material requirements in scenarios of global transition to renewable energies.
by Iñigo Capellán-Péreza, Carlos de Castroa & Luis Javier Miguel Gonzáleza
Energy Strategy Reviews (2019) 26: 100399
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2019.100399
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1TCd_e ... ZoQbcEjq3S

Highlights [from ScienceDirect]:
• Methodology to assess the energy and material investments associated to renewables.
• Their assessment is critical for the correct planning of renewables' deployment.
• EROI in fast transition scenarios incompatible with high levels of development.
• The transition to renewables may drive a re-materialization of the economy.
• These results put into question the consistence of the Green Growth narrative.

Abstract [from article, emphasis added]:
A novel methodology is developed to dynamically assess the energy and material investments required over time to achieve the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources in the electricity sector. The obtained results indicate that a fast transition achieving a 100% renewable electric system globally by 2060 consistent with the Green Growth narrative could decrease the EROI of the energy system from current ~12:1 to ~3:1 by the mid-century, stabilizing thereafter at ~5:1. These EROI levels are well below the thresholds identified in the literature required to sustain industrial complex societies. Moreover, this transition could drive a substantial rematerialization of the economy, exacerbating risk availability in the future for some minerals. Hence, the results obtained put into question the consistence and viability of the Green Growth narrative.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')The oil and gas industry operates in similar delusional vapours and currently the non-conventional part of it is a basic Ponzi racket involving real estate speculation and sucker investors who drink the MSM koolaid about boundless tight gas and "shale oil". US foreign policy is actually predicated on this insane BS. The USA is going to flood the EU with 160+ billion cubic meters per year! LOL. It imported 80 bcm from Canada in 2018.

[aspera]

Long-Term Estimates of the Energy-Return-on-Investment (EROI) of Coal, Oil, and Gas Global Productions.
by Victor Court & Florian Fizaine
Ecological Economics (2017) 138: 145–159.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.03.015
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1C17n9 ... iHZ3fmHqAe

Highlights [from ScienceDirect]
• Through a price-based approach we assess the global energy-return-on-investment (EROI) of coal, oil, and gas.
• This is done from their respective beginning of reported production (respectively 1800, 1860, and 1890) to 2012.
• We also present a new theoretical EROI dynamic model based on Dale et al. (2011).
• We find that maximum EROI of global oil and gas productions have both already been reached in the 1930s–40s, respectively around 50(± 15):1 and 150(± 20):1.
• We estimate that the maximum EROI of global coal production will most likely be around 95(± 15):1 around the 2030s.

Abstract [from article]
We use a price-based methodology to assess the global energy-return-on-investment (EROI) of coal, oil, and gas, from the beginning of their reported production (respectively 1800, 1860, and 1890) to 2012. It appears that the EROI of global oil and gas productions reached their maximum values in the 1930s–40s, respectively around 50:1 and 150:1, and have declined subsequently. Furthermore, we suggest that the EROI of global coal production has not yet reached its maximum value. Based on the original work of Dale et al. (2011), we then present a new theoretical dynamic expression of the EROI. Modifications of the original model were needed in order to perform calibrations on each of our price-based historical estimates of coal, oil, and gas global EROI. Theoretical models replicate the fact that maximum EROIs of global oil and gas productions have both already been reached while this is not the case for coal. In a prospective exercise, the models show the pace of the expected EROIs decrease for oil and gas in the coming century. Regarding coal, models are helpful to estimate the value and date of the EROI peak, which will most likely occur between 2025 and 2045, around a value of 95(± 15):1.

[aspera]

A New Approach to Calculating the “Corporate” EROI.
by Celi, Volpe, Pardi & Siboni
BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality (2018) 3:15
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41247-018-0048-1
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1ZL5tj ... f3wQZwc60-

Abstract [from article]:
The EROI is one of the most important indices to evaluate the net energy output of a source of primary energy (there is a lively debate on the usability of this kind of parameter, but here we will use it under the hypothesis that it is a good way to establish if an oil company has a level of efficiency close to other energetic sources). It is generally defined as the ratio between the energy extracted by a given resource and the energy costs sustained to extract that energy. We tried to set up an alternative method for the calculation of the EROI, taking (1) as a proxy of the energy costs the available data about the CO2 emissions of the oil companies, as reported in the sustainability reports (SRs), recommended by the international organisms such as IPCC and WBCSD, although not mandatory, and (2) as a proxy of the energy extracted the CO2 emissions estimate obtained by a stoichiometric conversion of the oil/gas production declared by the oil companies. Both proxies have been also corrected to take into account the different CO2 emission rate per unit energy of oil and gas. The resulting estimates of EROI are rather homogeneous and not too different from the values reported in the literature. The method could be suitable for year-by-year comparison of the time evolution of this important energy quality parameter for the individual energy producing and energy-delivering companies.