[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')Looks like the US isn't even a quarter of the world's assessed areas.
You could very well be correct. In which case between the USGS estimates of 500+ billion barrels of oil laying around in Venezuela that has socialist nitwits involved, USGS estimates of 500+ billion in reserve growth internationally, and now this 300+ billion, it sure looks like most of it will end up being left in the ground when peak demand clobbers the need for it.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel Doom', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', 'I') watched most of the video. The guy makes some good points but as someone pushing oil assets he definitely is driven by conflict-of-interest

DD: Ho-hum. Please address his data.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel Doom', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
') the usual doomer FUD that as soon as the US fracking boom peters out we're right back to the ususal supply cliff doom re peak oil isn't exactly baked in -- same as it ever was since the early 70's.

[Daniel Doom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel Doom', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zarquon', '(')go watch Crude Awakening, and compare that to the reality that followed, as just one example)

DD: You mean the reality that oil zoomed up to USD147 a barrel and the world entered the worst recession since the Great Depression? You are only faulting the Crude Awakening documentary because it did not foresee the development of fracking that would buy us another decade of relief but you conveniently overlook that NOBODY ELSE foresaw that development either OR that a 10 or 12 year window of recovery in no way nullifies the peak oil thesis in the big scheme of things. It's like your football team is down 49 to 0 and you suddenly start exclaiming, "We're going to win after all!" when it kicks a field goal with 5 minutes remaining in the game. Hey, just 46 more points to go!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peakzilla', 'T')he title of my thread describes the interview well: the peak is back, baby!

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel Doom', '
')WoodMac also says that EV production will not ramp up quickly.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')Oh sure, I agree much of it (and hopefully most of it) might well be left in the ground. I'm just saying that the usual doomer FUD that as soon as the US fracking boom peters out we're right back to the ususal supply cliff doom re peak oil isn't exactly baked in -- same as it ever was since the early 70's. Supply and demand DO work, whether the doomers like the implications re resistance to economic insta-doom, or not.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'W')hat is "FUD"? Based on context, it looks to be related to making up random scenarios that all lead to doom?

The perma-insta doom part I get. It is a defining characteristic....take fact...oil is produced....manufacture interesting story ending in TEOTWAEKI. It seemed to attract more converts to the church in the bad old days, was quite popular for awhile.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel Doom', '
')DD: As I wrote above, Mark Gordon relies on mainstream sources, including, *as I wrote*, WoodMac specifically. *Also*, the last time we debated this I pointed out that WoodMac agreed with me, not you, saying that global oil demand would increase by 12 million barrels a day by 2035, so no global peak demand between now and then, and you ignored WoodMac that time too. Are you actually reading what WoodMac says or just skimming their headlines? You are the one who needs to rebut sources such as WoodMac in order to make your point:

[shortonoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')top trying to attach yourself to peak oil because if and when it happens, oil prices will go UP, not down. So you lack any and all credibility with your ETP nonsense.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '
')If this birds stupidity is the result of a mutated, dominate gene, the human race will look like a colony of gophers in a very few generations! Fortunately, as most of them are carrying fleas, the plague is likely to eliminate the majority of these degenerates. In this particular instance it would be beneficial to mankind if it arrived early.

[onlooker]

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2019/11/29/ ... hFOhfRNUjY

Governments Need to Face Reality — the Fossil Fuel Industry Is Collapsing

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '
')The US imports 6+ mb/d of crude, and exports 3 of LTO.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'h')ttps://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2019/11/29/Government-Face-Reality-Fossil-Fuel-Industry-Collapsing/?fbclid=IwAR3CwSKeOYUb06k2pY3xSAs8hFAqoOeLXuP6jrxmvvfuHkhKLhFOhfRNUjY

Governments Need to Face Reality — the Fossil Fuel Industry Is Collapsing

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'h')ttps://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2019/11/29/Government-Face-Reality-Fossil-Fuel-Industry-Collapsing/?fbclid=IwAR3CwSKeOYUb06k2pY3xSAs8hFAqoOeLXuP6jrxmvvfuHkhKLhFOhfRNUjY

Governments Need to Face Reality — the Fossil Fuel Industry Is Collapsing

[ralfy]

Most of the world lack infrastructure for transport, food production, manufacturing, sanitation, water, electricity, etc. The amount of energy and resources needed to provide for that is equivalent to an additional earth.

Throw in EVs (which require more infrastructure) as well as middle class conveniences (like the Internet, electronic gadgets, furnished homes, and leisurely trips), then even more will be needed.

Given that, peak demand is highly unlikely. If it drops, it will do so with consumption, as resource supply issues take place due to diminishing returns, increasing human population, and pollution. In time, population decline will follow.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'M')ost of the world lack infrastructure for transport, food production, manufacturing, sanitation, water, electricity, etc. The amount of energy and resources needed to provide for that is equivalent to an additional earth.

[evilgenius]

I think the ocean floor has plenty of cobalt. It won't be too difficult to mine. The trouble comes from the environmental impact. Mining causes huge clouds of silt to blow up, which destroy the tiny creatures that rely upon filtering out nutrients from the water. The revolution could come from figuring out how to mine the seafloor nodules without sending up huge silt clouds. Maybe they will figure out how to use suction dredges to do it? Gold mining uses those. It takes a very powerful setup to go very deep, though, and currently needs divers to operate. The cobalt nodules are not that deep, and are pretty much on the surface, but they are deeper than most suction dredging can currently go, especially with divers. I can think of ways to get over that, so I'm certain those with the capital to go and mine can too.

I'm curious about the subject of peak oil coming back to the fore. I wonder if it would cause off shore to sore, for instance? Maybe some other section of the industry would benefit? Stock prices are generally depressed. If it happens, this could be one of those rare opportunities to make a fortune. Risk/reward, though. It could just as easily take place over a backdrop of falling prices, for various reasons. As usual, diversification seems like a prudent approach.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', '
')I'm curious about the subject of peak oil coming back to the fore.

[GHung]

If battery tech progresses as expected and much higher capacity systems become mainstream (solid-state batteries with faster charge rates at lower cost), this conversation will become obsolete along with most uses of internal combustion engines. Oil monkeys will be begging for new uses for their goo,, or just begging out on the streets.
This assumes that our other essential systems (climate, ecological, economic, food.....) don't accelerate their collapses first. Not a very safe assumption, IMO.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')Darn right! And buying an EV means..who cares!!