.
As I became aware of the depletion principle , peak oil took my interest
depletion , like gravity suck and cannot be avoided , long term
Marion King Hubbert seminal work struck me as prescient , jean Laherrere writting is very precise
both are professional geologist having worked at the top of the oil industry
they were right of course but for a small detail , things turned out to be different
Hubbert considered conventional fields and conventional crude
Laherrere prediction took the new offshore fields in consideration and gave larger estimates
every time some limit was in sight new technologies made new resources exploitable
Peak oiler clung to the obvious , those resources were available because the price of crude was rising
making ever greater investment necessary and decreasing the energy return trending to uneconomical
things turned out differently , the new resources could and do compete with the old conventional on price
further compounding the problem , natural gas, once commonly flared as a waste , became a major market in itself
it would seems that the exploitation went through several stage ,
accessing the easy oil then those which required a bit more nous then some really tricky tech
and finally (?) squeezing hydrocarbon from stone
at each stage the recoverable resources are larger ,
it's like digging a buried pyramid ,starting from the tip and the deeper one get the more there is
the world is now so awash with crude/gas supply ,
it can take three millions barrel of Iranian production out and still see the prices drop
now demand peak is all the rage ,
it's a good theory ...but theories can be right an reality be something else again
PeakOil is You
A personal overview of the peak oil theory
A personal overview of the peak oil theory
by sparky » Sat 23 Nov 2019, 22:59:37
-
sparky - Intermediate Crude
- Posts: 3587
- Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
- Location: Sydney , OZ
Re: A personal overview of the peak oil theory
by AdamB » Sat 23 Nov 2019, 23:54:05
Each claim of running out, or peak, to date has been discredited for one obvious reason, said reason being claimed as a way to explain away the endless boy who cried wolf results. It goes something like this:
"Well, obviously they didn't know that this <fill in something now obvious> was going to take place."
The same excuse works perfectly, forever, until the broken clock analogy wins in the end.
The scientific answer, one that organizations like the EIA and the USGS (and Hubbert when he was working for them as well), was to try and account for these known unknowns. The great disappointment within the peak oil movement is to NOT be concerned with this issue, always pretending that only current production and reserves matter (missing the resource to reserve conversion rate), pretending that nothing improves (when we know just such a thing has caused the past bad claims), pretending that economics doesn't matter (when it matters as much as improved engineering techniques), etc etc.
Peak oil will one day come (be in by supply scarcity or demand scarcity), but the only thing we know for certain is that the people who have refused to learn the history of why they got it wrong in the past are unlikely to be the ones to get it right in the future.
"Well, obviously they didn't know that this <fill in something now obvious> was going to take place."
The same excuse works perfectly, forever, until the broken clock analogy wins in the end.
The scientific answer, one that organizations like the EIA and the USGS (and Hubbert when he was working for them as well), was to try and account for these known unknowns. The great disappointment within the peak oil movement is to NOT be concerned with this issue, always pretending that only current production and reserves matter (missing the resource to reserve conversion rate), pretending that nothing improves (when we know just such a thing has caused the past bad claims), pretending that economics doesn't matter (when it matters as much as improved engineering techniques), etc etc.
Peak oil will one day come (be in by supply scarcity or demand scarcity), but the only thing we know for certain is that the people who have refused to learn the history of why they got it wrong in the past are unlikely to be the ones to get it right in the future.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
-
AdamB - Volunteer
- Posts: 11018
- Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Re: A personal overview of the peak oil theory
by ralfy » Sun 24 Nov 2019, 02:46:45
The new resources don't compete with the old ones.
Peak oil is not a theory for obvious reasons. Otherwise, there would be no need to look for new resources.
Peak oil is not a theory for obvious reasons. Otherwise, there would be no need to look for new resources.
-
ralfy - Light Sweet Crude
- Posts: 5651
- Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 11:36:38
- Location: The Wasteland
Re: A personal overview of the peak oil theory
by sparky » Sun 24 Nov 2019, 06:31:33
.
I have a hunch that improvement in recovery of old fields will keep trending up
here in Oz old gold mines tailings were re-processed in a profitable manner
I would keep an eye on old easily accessible wells for pushing the depletion envelop a bit further
it's probably already going on
I have a hunch that improvement in recovery of old fields will keep trending up
here in Oz old gold mines tailings were re-processed in a profitable manner
I would keep an eye on old easily accessible wells for pushing the depletion envelop a bit further
it's probably already going on
-
sparky - Intermediate Crude
- Posts: 3587
- Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
- Location: Sydney , OZ
Re: A personal overview of the peak oil theory
by Tanada » Sun 24 Nov 2019, 06:58:50
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
I have a hunch that improvement in recovery of old fields will keep trending up
here in Oz old gold mines tailings were re-processed in a profitable manner
I would keep an eye on old easily accessible wells for pushing the depletion envelop a bit further
it's probably already going on
I have a hunch that improvement in recovery of old fields will keep trending up
here in Oz old gold mines tailings were re-processed in a profitable manner
I would keep an eye on old easily accessible wells for pushing the depletion envelop a bit further
it's probably already going on
That is one of the factors way too many discount or discounted in the past. When Oil was in the $75/bbl plus band from 2010-2014 a lot of old oil fields in my corner of Ohio suddenly went from 'depleted' to 'being reworked'. Even if you only squeeze an additional 10% out of a reservoir when prices are high it is a well paid decision to make the effort.
Personally I think the wall will be when the global demand exceeds the global supply despite all the advancements in petroleum production from natural sources. Others favor a demand peak, but I just don't see that happening with 4 BILLION people out their still lacking effective consumer driven petroleum powered devices. A billion in Africa, another Billion in India, a third Billion in China and a fourth Billion everywhere else are still hoping to get control of a personal petroleum burning vehicle that they currently lack. Even if every one of those new vehicles was a 1 cylinder minibike you would be talking a massive increase in petroleum demand from where we are today, and most of the in India and China at least are going the private car route.
I agree with the pyramid analogy, but at some point we get all the way to the bottom of the pyramid and then we have hard decisions to make. Of course being humans we will dither and not make any decisions we don't like until nature forces us to do so.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
- Tanada
- Site Admin
- Posts: 17094
- Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
- Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA
Re: A personal overview of the peak oil theory
by diemos » Sun 24 Nov 2019, 11:23:58
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
it's a good theory ...but theories can be right an reality be something else again
it's a good theory ...but theories can be right an reality be something else again
uh huh.
and the amount of fossil carbon in the ground is still finite. I don't claim to know how much that is ... but it's still finite.
-
diemos - Heavy Crude
- Posts: 1423
- Joined: Fri 23 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Re: A personal overview of the peak oil theory
by AdamB » Sun 24 Nov 2019, 11:41:06
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'T')he new resources don't compete with the old ones.
What do you mean? What are "old" resources, or "new" ones?
We aren't talking about coal competing with crude oil and natural gas within the peak oil arena, we are talking about ALL old crude oil and natural gas resources, dating back past generation in the Devonian, unless you are claiming that abiotic oil is somehow "new" and changing the current mix?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')Peak oil is not a theory for obvious reasons. Otherwise, there would be no need to look for new resources.
The definition of peak oil is axiomatic. The hysterical consequences assigned to the event down through the decades and century are most certainly theory, speculation, and conjecture. The proof of this is irrefutable by history itself, as any LATOCian should know.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
-
AdamB - Volunteer
- Posts: 11018
- Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
