[Revi]

Losing 5 % of the world's oil supply for a month combined with slowing fracked oil in the US has taken a lot out of the system. Will next year's oil supply be able to top 2019? Have we hit the peak? What do you think?

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/busine ... 090615.php

[StarvingLion]

I think there will be an awful lot of explosions to come in KSA.

Fake Money demands it.

I said many times that KSA would turn into Venezuela.

The Morons who think Suncor is safe are dense. Once KSA production tanks big time, forget about the Tar Sands being fundable. More oil offline.

Then the BrainDead will go nuts on EV's.

Then the lights go off.

Then the ammunition boxes are distributed.

Then its 5000 Stalingrads without the supply chain.

Then its Buzzard Meat Time.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'L')osing 5 % of the world's oil supply for a month combined with slowing fracked oil in the US has taken a lot out of the system. Will next year's oil supply be able to top 2019? Have we hit the peak? What do you think?

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/busine ... 090615.php

[EdwinSm]

Taking out 5% for a month in 2019, should help with 2020's production matching that of 2019, so if production can be restored (as it is claimed it will be) then we might not be a the peak.

Conversely If the reports of returning to full production within a month are overstated then there will be a greater chance that we have hit the peak.

Time will tell (especially if Saudi Arabia keeps using western weapons to bomb Yemen and Yemen, or its allies, responds by hitting back at Saudi Arabia).

Another major attack could well usher in the "Peak Oil" point, which could be due to political (military) factors rather than geological factors. The latter is hard for me to predict, and the former almost impossible. I personally do not expect the "Peak Oil" point to have any immediate impact, but am worried when the idea finally filters to the general population causing reactions that could make a gradually increasing problem suddenly a large problem (eg riots leading to destruction of infrastructure).

[AirlinePilot]

Not yet, but we are close IMHO. Challenges ahead for the US Shale industry in growing production along with everyone else on the planet pretty much at peak mean to me there is a shot at incremental growth over the next few years, but after that I'd say we start the long slow decline globally.

I find it mildly interesting to follow this nowadays. I do believe that most of us got it wrong only for a little while. In the grand scheme of the oil age......over the course of @120 years....missing the peak prediction by less than 10% is not that big a miss. If you look at most of the bigger predictions calling it between @2008 and now, none of them were really that far off. I do think the final decline will not be catastrophic, but it will be problematic.

[Sys1]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nother major attack could well usher in the "Peak Oil" point, which could be due to political (military) factors rather than geological factors.

[Ibon]

NO peak yet. May never happen if a deep recession plus electrification of transport creates enough demand destruction that we then see the slow decline of oil consumption. This actually would be peak oil but not because of geology. I do predict that peak oil will not result from the geology of depletion but rather from recessions, instability, maybe wars or further terrorist attacks and the ramping up of electric vehicles. And let's not forget Greta.

[Revi]

it's strange how it hasn't affected even the price of oil this week. Maybe we aren't anywhere near peak...

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'i')t's strange how it hasn't affected even the price of oil this week. Maybe we aren't anywhere near peak...

[Revi]

Something's happening. Anyone know what's going on today? I know there has been a lot of saber rattling, but what else has affected the markets? A friend said that oil hasn't gone up despite the recent attacks because traders feel that US fracked oil will save the day. What do you think?

[Pops]

No this isn't the peak.
Iran is locked out, KSA offline, Brazil is opening their offshore, and prices are relatively low compared to the run-up to the frack bust in '15.

Ibon is right, we're due a recession, which will slow demand growth and ease scarcity pricing, while depletion continues even to the point of decline possibly.

I've said for a while that fracking will mask the beginnings of decline in C+C, it already has lent an air of abundance when reality is 15 year plateau otherwise. Still there is the problem of tight declines. Note how total EF production to 2015 falls 75% in a year without drilling, and even when the price returned it couldn't rise to the previous level. Granted the price isn't as high. Yeah there is a tail but when the sweet spots are gone their gone.

[ralfy]

Per capita:

https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/20 ... k-oil.html

[EdwinSm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'S')omething's happening. Anyone know what's going on today? I know there has been a lot of saber rattling, but what else has affected the markets?

[Sinclarsorus]

Yeah China recently made a deal for more with Saudi Arabia for 65 Billion a year. It was right before the drone attacks, so it makes you wonder what all this is about.

My theory is the Overnight Market for banking was impacted some way from the drone attacks, and either decreased the amount of investment money available for banks to sell the monthly credit card debt created, or Credit Card operations are out of control or much higher than normal. The interest on this short term debt would be much higher with either activity. I think the slowing of the Petro-Dollar out of Saudi Arabia must have impacted that OM market, there wasn't enough money to borrow basically.

I tried to calculate the value of lost oil production though from the drone attacks but it was no where close to the half a trillion bailout planned by the Fed to the middle of next month, so there must be some other liquidity problem more than just reduced oil money to banking. Its more inline with the 2008 bailout in operation. But basically banks a flooded with money at very low interest as well, so will make big gains.

[Sinclarsorus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'L')osing 5 % of the world's oil supply for a month combined with slowing fracked oil in the US has taken a lot out of the system. Will next year's oil supply be able to top 2019? Have we hit the peak? What do you think?

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/busine ... 090615.php

[Revi]

This is behind a paywall, but maybe it signals that we are getting there:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/shale-boom ... 1569795047

[EdwinSm]

What I could read (before the pay wall), was that Shale is still growing, but at 1% instead of the previous 7%.

Is 1% growth from Shale able to counter the declines elsewhere?

[Simon_R]

I have thought for a while now, we are on the bumpy plateau, oil from conventional reservoirs has peaked, and we are just finding ways to use other liquids, this is a short term measure (decade/s), to keep BAU trundling along.
Question is when will Frakking start to slow down, and at what point wil Kerogen be seen to be economically viable.

[Revi]

I just saw another vid by Kirby, and he says that we are doing the whole fracking, shale oil thing just to hold up the petrodollar. He says with a lot of countries using other currencies to sell and buy oil we needed to have something to pour all those dollars into that's considered to be oil. By producing all that oil and selling it in dollars it holds the whole system of the petrodollar up. He also said that when the money goes into a hole it keeps us from having inflation.

Maybe that's the big reason we have all this fracking when it's economically unviable everywhere else.

It also signals that when the dollar goes down we will have peaked for sure. I have heard that 98% of the growth in oil production worldwide came from our shale oil.

In a way it's way scarier than just peaking, because our fate is intertwined with it...

Ignore the crap about "our dear leader", but here is the video. He talks about the petrodollar pretty early in the vid:

https://www.silverdoctors.com/headlines ... ing-truth/

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EdwinSm', 'W')hat I could read (before the pay wall), was that Shale is still growing, but at 1% instead of the previous 7%.

Is 1% growth from Shale able to counter the declines elsewhere?