[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BobWallace', 'H')ow many good paying IT jobs were created at the same time?

[TheDude]

Hi Bob, read some of your comments at the Oil Drum topic ...To Grandmother's House We Go: Peak Oil Is Here. You'll get much more of a hearing there for anything in the realm of optimistic; I see someone has brought up Jevon's Paradox, now read up on Carrying Capacity, which the most prolific poster here insists means we either reduce our numbers voluntarily, or starve. Lack of fertilizer will simply mean less food, no two ways around it - in his estimation.

Like you I believe there are viable solutions to solving that, but I'm also not a number cruncher (neither are you are by your admission) and aren't cut out to debate how many watts of extra grid capacity we'll need, etc. Wouldn't advise going into the fray without some of that at your disposal - there are some here who do, and they butt heads with the Doomists big time. Best just to take it all in and form your own opinions/prognostications.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'Y')ou'll get much more of a hearing there for anything in the realm of optimistic;

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BobWallace', 'S')hould we bury our heads in the sand or concentrate on the worst possible outcome?

Can't see the sense in that. Better to get busy softening our fall as much as possible and making a better future for those who will follow us.

[billp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he problem will be that, unlike in the old days, we are/will be way over carrying capacity for non-industrial agriculture without fossil fuel supports. And coal will quickly become less than 1 for EROEI if you can't use giant earth-moving equipment to level mountain tops.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'Y')ou'll get much more of a hearing there for anything in the realm of optimistic;

[BobWallace]

"Lack of fertilizer due to peak oi..."

"Several factors mitigate the threat peak oil poses to fertilizer production. The first is simply that the relevant peak is not oil, but natural gas. Natural gas production will also peak, but the peak is generally thought to come about 10 years after the oil peak (see e.g., here which buys us some time. Second, hydrogen does not have to come from reformed fossil fuels at all. Hydrogen can be made by electrolyzing water, using electricity from the greenest of sources, like wind or solar."

http://helpychalk.blogspot.com/2006/01/ ... lizer.html

Now, that's only one part of the NPP formula, the Nitrogen part.


Phosphorus for agricultural use, starts as rock phosphate and gets "cooked" in an electric over.

http://www.extension.umn.edu/distributi ... C6288.html


Potassium

"Most potassium (K) is recovered from underground deposits of soluble minerals, in combination with either the chloride or sulphate ion."

We've got a problem with rock phosphate supplies dwindling, but that's aside from PO. We may have to look to other sources, oil or not.

Bone meal is a good source of phosphate for agriculture but we would have to change the way we process waste bones. At the moment we're "cooking" them to get out the maximum amount of usable material. We might have to divert some of the stuff from the pet food route and into our soil.

(Enough bone meal available? Don't know. Rock potassium is yet another peak substance problem that is looking us in the eye._

[Pops]

We agree for the most part Dude. To be honest as far as macro solutions - or analysis either for that matter, I have a hard enough time getting my little brain around what is gonna happen on, and what to do about, my little farm; let alone the entire globe!

I have come to view those who shoot down any news or arguments of partial solutions like Bob here is presenting the same as I see those who maintain the status will be at least quo, if not better, simply because that is what we have always experienced. Especially when those same folks don’t seem to be doing anything but typing.

Anyway, sorry Bob, I’m not really sure what the topic of the thread is but I am way off from the topic of the forum so I am gonna hush!

[Iaato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I') have come to view those who shoot down any news or arguments of partial solutions like Bob here is presenting the same as I see those who maintain the status will be at least quo, if not better, simply because that is what we have always experienced. Especially when those same folks don’t seem to be doing anything but typing.

[keehah]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's "Jevons Paradox" and it's the darling of the doomers. It's become their one hope in totally bumming themselves out.

But I don't think it holds. It makes an assumption of no decrease in the commodity in question. Simply says that if devices become more efficient then people will use those devices more.

Add in the decreasing supply of petroleum and Jevons falls on his butt.

[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BobWallace', '"')Lack of fertilizer due to peak oi..."

"Several factors mitigate the threat peak oil poses to fertilizer production. The first is simply that the relevant peak is not oil, but natural gas. Natural gas production will also peak, but the peak is generally thought to come about 10 years after the oil peak (see e.g., here which buys us some time. Second, hydrogen does not have to come from reformed fossil fuels at all. Hydrogen can be made by electrolyzing water, using electricity from the greenest of sources, like wind or solar."

http://helpychalk.blogspot.com/2006/01/ ... lizer.html

Now, that's only one part of the NPP formula, the Nitrogen part.


Phosphorus for agricultural use, starts as rock phosphate and gets "cooked" in an electric over.

http://www.extension.umn.edu/distributi ... C6288.html


Potassium

"Most potassium (K) is recovered from underground deposits of soluble minerals, in combination with either the chloride or sulphate ion."

We've got a problem with rock phosphate supplies dwindling, but that's aside from PO. We may have to look to other sources, oil or not.

Bone meal is a good source of phosphate for agriculture but we would have to change the way we process waste bones. At the moment we're "cooking" them to get out the maximum amount of usable material. We might have to divert some of the stuff from the pet food route and into our soil.

(Enough bone meal available? Don't know. Rock potassium is yet another peak substance problem that is looking us in the eye._

[BobWallace]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('keehah', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's "Jevons Paradox" and it's the darling of the doomers. It's become their one hope in totally bumming themselves out.

But I don't think it holds. It makes an assumption of no decrease in the commodity in question. Simply says that if devices become more efficient then people will use those devices more.

Add in the decreasing supply of petroleum and Jevons falls on his butt.

[BobWallace]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Iaato', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I') have come to view those who shoot down any news or arguments of partial solutions like Bob here is presenting the same as I see those who maintain the status will be at least quo, if not better, simply because that is what we have always experienced. Especially when those same folks don’t seem to be doing anything but typing.

[BobWallace]

I've been an organic gardener for close to 30 years. I grew up on the edge of my grandfather's farm. He was organic without ever hearing the word. And while I was growing up I watch (and helped a little bit) my father garden as he transitioned from organic to chemical.

I've got no doubts about organic on a small scale. And I am aware that (at least some) crops can be grown organically on a large scale. With the same or better yield while using approximately 30% less energy.

But I'm not sure if we can push to 100% organic and still feed the world. We may have to continue to use some 'artificial'. I'd be very happy to find that not so, but....

The point of my post was that we can produce chemical fertilizers without oil. Just trying to snuff that misconception. Whether we can leave chemical fertilizer behind is a second, but interesting, consideration.

[Keith_McClary]

[Tanada]

Once upon a time we had a lively discussion of the energy density of various petroleum products, as in how much mass would deliver how many kcal of energy when combusted.

I have been searching for that discussion without much success so I decided to just put it to the group. For an unrelated project I am trying to show the energy density of three materials but am having a very difficult time finding solid numbers.

The items are
1) Kerosene aka Diesel #1 fuel.
2) Polybutadiene based synthetic rubber.
3) HTPB (Hydroxyl Terminating Polybutadiene Perchlorate) Solid ...rocket fuel.

I can show that the Kerosene has a density of .8 grams and the synthetic rubber has a density of 1.52 grams per CC of material but either my brain or the internet have dumbed down a great deal in the last 15 years as finding the caloric value of these three fuels used to be a simple search but I find myself stymied. I recall doing a comparison like this when PO dot com was a new place so I was hoping to find it here but with a zillion posts I am not having any luck here either.

The context I remember discussing it in was that a couple decades ago my local cement company (near where I used to live) had switched to accepting used road tires, without wheel hubs, for free and they were using them as solid fuel for their cement kiln. At one time they had used various other "post consumer" products like used motor oil but at around that time the government was encouraging oil change places to send the used oil back to refiners to be reprocessed into new motor oil. There are still untold thousands of used tires laying around that could be used as solid fuel with the appropriate pollution controls in place, a kind of hidden post collapse energy source most folks have never heard of. There was even a storage place out in the desert southwest where they had something like a million used tires stored in the open until some arsonist lit one of the huge stacks on fire that burned for several days out of control.

Anyhow if someone has the link to the data I need it would be much appreciated.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'O')nce upon a time we had a lively discussion of the energy density of various petroleum products, as in how much mass would deliver how many kcal of energy when combusted.

I have been searching for that discussion without much success so I decided to just put it to the group. For an unrelated project I am trying to show the energy density of three materials but am having a very difficult time finding solid numbers.

The items are
1) Kerosene aka Diesel #1 fuel.
2) Polybutadiene based synthetic rubber.
3) HTPB (Hydroxyl Terminating Polybutadiene Perchlorate) Solid ...rocket fuel.

...

Anyhow if someone has the link to the data I need it would be much appreciated.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'O')nce upon a time we had a lively discussion of the energy density of various petroleum products, as in how much mass would deliver how many kcal of energy when combusted.

I have been searching for that discussion without much success so I decided to just put it to the group. For an unrelated project I am trying to show the energy density of three materials but am having a very difficult time finding solid numbers.

The items are
1) Kerosene aka Diesel #1 fuel.
2) Polybutadiene based synthetic rubber.
3) HTPB (Hydroxyl Terminating Polybutadiene Perchlorate) Solid ...rocket fuel.

...

Anyhow if someone has the link to the data I need it would be much appreciated.

[radon1]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', ' ')solid rocket fuel

[diemos]

http://msw.cecs.ucf.edu/EnergyProblem.pdf