[Newfie]

The 3rd debate will be held in September. At that time the field will be significantly culled. Participants need 130,000 contributors and at least 2% in 3 DNC sanctioned polls to be on the stage.

Because Inslee is the only one talking climate change I chipped in a couple of bucks to help him get over the bar. But he seems to be polling very poorly. Having Inslee on the panel would help discussion about climate change if nothing else.

Here is a 538 review of the status.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it ... er-debate/

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'T')he 3rd debate will be held in September. At that time the field will be significantly culled. Participants need 130,000 contributors and at least 2% in 3 DNC sanctioned polls to be on the stage.

Because Inslee is the only one talking climate change I chipped in a couple of bucks to help him get over the bar. But he seems to be polling very poorly. Having Inslee on the panel would help discussion about climate change if nothing else.

Here is a 538 review of the status.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it ... er-debate/

[Newfie]

I’ve been reading a book I think you may like. SAPIENS. He has some interesting perspectives.

https://www.amazon.com/Sapiens-Humankin ... 0062316095

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'I')’ve been reading a book I think you may like. SAPIENS. He has some interesting perspectives.

https://www.amazon.com/Sapiens-Humankin ... 0062316095

[Ibon]

Further comments on this, the electorate reacts to cheap entertainment, emotions, stoking grievances, etc. Inslee mentioned in a podcast I listened to recently that there is this big swing happening, the electorate is waking up to the reality of climate change, people are suffering consequences like fires, heat waves, droughts, flooding etc. Inslee believes this is entering into the zeitgeist and the common man on the street is waking up. That it is working on that same emotional place that can create a wave.

Politics is like surfing. If you anticipate the wave too soon it will pass over you and break. If you are out in front of it then it will break before reaching you. Those who surf know this sweet spot where you paddle with perfect timing so that your board moves on top of the wave just as it crests and you catch it.

Inslee believes that the electorate is right there like a wave cresting and he is on the political surfboard to catch it just in time for the 2020 elections.

The problem is his projection on to the electorate is causing him to anticipate a wave that is not yet really there. He will be on his surf board and the wave will pass by. It will be a tiny wave. It wont have the power to carry him.

A lot can happen between now and 2020 but I think it is a bit too soon still for a climate change candidate. The collective soup focused on climate change is still too small. It's about a 2.5 foot wave. Good for little kiddies to go rafting on.

The big waves are still immigrants and communists. Climate change is abstract and still seen as the domain of the educated elite. More consequences have to bring it to the emotional level that can make it turn into a bigger wave.

Since most people stay in doors and watch TV and internet trash they are actually insulated from actually seeing the changes. Nobody really leaves air conditioned spaces in the summer. Too many organic messy things like sweat and bugs.

[Newfie]

Maybe I’m seeing something that isn’t but from my small sample all the photos of last nights debate show Biden with some opponent (Harris or Booker) with Biden looking rather straight, restrained, but alert while the opponent is in some emotional pose either pointing their finger or rolling eyes.

My conspirital self says these images were chosen to show Biden looking Presidential while the opponent looks emotional.

[Newfie]

Making some sense here.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')emocrats need what I’d call a “first-things-first” campaign: a campaign that emphasizes progressive responses to the historically urgent challenges we face and recognizes the difficulties—political, practical, and even philosophical—of trying to check off all at once every item on the progressive wish list.

What are those historically urgent problems? The climate emergency comes first. Candidates call it an “existential threat,” but they aren’t giving it the priority those words imply. In dealing with climate, unlike many other issues, time is of the essence: The more we delay decarbonization, the more costly and political difficult it becomes, until catastrophe will be unavoidable. The basic premise of a Green New Deal also makes political sense: Combine the task of decarbonization with an infrastructure plan that creates jobs and delivers other tangible benefits in transportation, clean water, renewable energy, and other areas.

[Ibon]

Pragmatically speaking the consequences of climate change SHOULD be a force, like the enemy is during a war, to unite a divided and polarized nation.

This truth is cooking in the collective like a pot of spaghetti. It is not yet aldente...

Inslee has to be praying in his secret heart of hearts for fires, tornadoes, hurricanes, droughts and floods in the months ahead...

Events to act as catalysts in the embryonic fears brewing in the collective.

Is the timing right?

[Newfie]

For 2024 maybe. And maybe that is what a lot of this is about, name recognition for 2024.

[Cog]

As long as climate change remediation is firmly wrapped up in social justice and massive doses of socialism, it will not appeal to the majority of voters.

[Newfie]

That’s right. It needs to be stripped out as a separate issue. You can tie it to energy depletion, water depletion, etc. The ties to social justice need to be broken.

Probably something similar can be said about illegal immigration. There are real issues behind it. Some of it is the conditions in the originating country. Some of it is that the USA holds itself out as the promised land. Probably the biggest impediment though is the flat USA population rise and the perceived need for “growth” which is interpreted as “growing population.” There are ways to address this other than illegal population, but we never get to that

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'A')s long as climate change remediation is firmly wrapped up in social justice and massive doses of socialism, it will not appeal to the majority of voters.

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'A')s long as climate change remediation is firmly wrapped up in social justice and massive doses of socialism, it will not appeal to the majority of voters.

[jedrider]

I'm playing catch-up with the debates. There are still candidates that I'm not too familiar with, but that will be whittled down soon.

I am impressed with Tulsi Gabbard's demeanor as a common-sense person and I'm impressed with Jay Inslee's ability to prioritize issues.

We got some good candidates here and I hope the Democrats can run with it and unite behind a good Presidential candidate as well as VP candidate.

Seems to me we should pick a team and not the usual way a VP candidate is chosen to gain votes in that state. I think it is much more important to choose the pair on the issues that they consider dear (and hope they follow through, unlike Obama).

2016 seems like ancient history now after listening to the issues in these primary debates. Trump has been so good at focusing the Democrat's attention on what's important.

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'A')s long as climate change remediation is firmly wrapped up in social justice and massive doses of socialism, it will not appeal to the majority of voters.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')Correct, this is the kind of argument line I’m following. You don’t even have to mention the trigger words “climate change”. There are plenty of topics that if addressed would assist with the climate change dilemma. And many things the conservative side can get behind as American values that overlap with climate change.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')We here are all obsolete baby boomers born in the cold war era.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')And I'm NOT upset or offended -- I'm just making what I hope is a somewhat valid point. (I'm 60. Clearly if I make it to 80, I'll be more obsolete. I get that. But if my mind holds up, I still plan to be clued in to math, science, and technology, at least at the layman level).

[Newfie]

Outcast,

Speaking to you as one with whom I can speak my mind, not having to shade my thoughts, I see no viable path forward that does not eventually result in a near complete shut down of the global financial system. To “break the bank” is a mere prelude to what I envision will happen.

The longer we delay taking effective action the further the retreat will be.

I know this is not a popular message, yet it is the truth. Or at least my vision of the truth, spoken in all honesty and candor.