[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')Your ecology knowledge displays the same ignorance as all the AGW Fanboys you used to rally against.

[KaiserJeep]

Think of it this way: As species vanish, human attention changes to other species. The cod that once flourished in the Atlantic are vanishing. We are finding ways to harvest and sell what were once "trash fish", thrown over the side. Soon entire families of related species are gone.

The rate of species extinction is accelerating, not slowing. Think about what that means.

[jedrider]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'T')he rate of species extinction is accelerating, not slowing. Think about what that means.

[Cog]

Got to go with Ibon on his long term outlook. Humans aren't going to ruin to planet enough to make themselves extinct or wipe out all of the species before they run out of the means to do so. After peak, the population of humans will plummet year by year. Simply not enough energy around to keep the numbers alive. Of course war and chaos will be a result of all this as we fight for the dregs. But humans will continue and the planet will heal itself.

Now maybe we reach some enlightened state that Ibon desires where we are one with the planet. But an equal outcome is we descend into permanent savagery.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')Your ecology knowledge displays the same ignorance as all the AGW Fanboys you used to rally against.

[KaiserJeep]

"Asymmetric" is a good term for what is happenning now. The parts of the World closest to outright collapse are either experiencing climate-related agricultural problems (such as sub-Saharan Africa) or warfare (such as Yemen). An estimated 65 million refugees exist in the world today, about 0.8% of the world population. That figure does not include IDPs (internally displaced persons, still in their own country) or those that cross borders for reasons such as a lack of food (including famine), water, education, health care and a livelihood, and thus are not legally-recognized as refugees.

No, I'm not word-smithing - the treatment of those flowing across the US Southern Border would be vastly different if they were classed as refugees - which is unlikely as long as the USA is a UN Security Council member and thus setting the legal definition of "refugee". However those flowing into European countries from the various Middle Eastern conflicts are clearly refugees. As are Cubans who reach Florida and set foot on US soil, before we can "detain" them at Guantanamo Bay. Of course, starving people are starving people, and various countries like to wordsmith to reduce their legal responsibilities.

You all seem to be converging on my long-held belief that this is a long drawn-out process, not an approaching event. Refugees, violence, economic warfare, and the deceptive politics associated with same, are symptoms of the human overshoot. My assumption is that such things will continue to worsen for the rest of my life. My other assumption is that I live in one of the places least likely to be seriously impacted by the overshoot. On this last, clearly PO forum member judgements differ greatly. However, my wife and I already practice frugality in everything we do, and believe in staying out of debt. As time passes, we strive to make ourselves more resilient and less vulnerable. Up until age claims us at least, as it does everybody.

Right now, my Grandkids and myself are enjoying playing with "G" scale model trains - and I am contemplating building a garden railroad in the backyard. I am teaching train operations (I have not practiced this hobby since I was myself a teenager with an HO scale layout) and they are sharing what they learn on a children's TV show called "Dinosaur Train". The first scenery they want to build is a "Time Tunnel" that takes the train to Triassic World, Jurassic World, etc. Right now, they bring over plastic dinosaurs to ride the train and try to explain to Grandpa what is happening. Grandpa of course has never seen the TV show so they have to be patient and use lots of words - at age 4 plus two weeks communicating with 67-year-old "Pop Pop".

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')It will be however very asymmetric in its impacts around the planet. The extinctions caused will also be very asymmetric.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', 'H')ere's a thought experiment for you (and this is subject to change of course if this thread remains active).

How many hardcore peakers are there left in the world?

[ralfy]

It doesn't matter for obvious reasons.

[evilgenius]

Well, it depends upon what kind of peak a person is expecting. Peak whale oil was about to come to the world, even though the whalers were out there in huge numbers collecting them still. Peak buggy whip happened over a few short years. Peak coal, even though it fell to replacement by oil, wasn't much more than a bump for that resource. Coal is still used today. I said on some thread years ago that I think you will still be able to buy gasoline in 2100, but it will be packaged in a tin on a shelf, not pumped out of tanks at a service station. It won't matter what its price is because it will only be used for limited applications. I never thought, when I said that, that the very idea of the store you might buy that tin at might also suffer its own sort of peak. I'm glad we talk about all kinds of things here. I agree that we should let anyone who comes to take a look see everything that this site produces.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')Richard Heinberg admitted that he/they were wrong.

[Newfie]

I only follow a few forums, this and two others related to cruising. There are some similarities, but in general participation seems down around the board.

We come to these sites as newbies and find some passion in the ideas, then we sort of “age out.” The discussions become well worn paths, our interests lead us elsewhere. A few stick around, most come and go.

In general this site is about resource depletion with an emphasis on fuels. “peak Oil” is an old chestnut, kind of a memonic, a way to remember where we touched on a subject before. So it’s not a terrible name.

I don’t know how the site will evolve in the future, I think it’s good having more open discussion as we do. It’s not a terrible thing that we do not have a lot of extreme peak oil enthusiasts, it shows that the discussion has matured and moved on. Would it be better if we were still having the exact same arguments we had 10 years ago? I think not.

I would like to see some broadening if the discussion, for example I started a thread on “Degrowth” that got a little traction. It’s not a fashionable topic right now but could bloom, just let AOC get behind the idea, not that that is likely.

Here in rural Canada you can go into most any Tim Hortons at 7am and find a half dozen old farts sitting around discussing who knows what. It’s a great place to go if you need to get some local knowledge - “Who’s the best diesel mechanic in town?” They are thrilled to expound on their various opinions and you just might get something useful.

Peak Oil is a bit like that, a bunch of old farts just waiting to be tapped for our knowledge. In the meantime we carp and bitch about one another, because of over familiarity. It’s OK, part of life. Enjoy.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')Would it be better if we were still having the exact same arguments we had 10 years ago?

[Newfie]

Not so, I live my “preps” every day. I think much the same could be said by others. It all, but some. We are where we intended to get to, our focus is now on the future. When, where, and how the great unraveling will occur.

And that’s part of this sites value, it allows us to individually assess the risk and helps us come to the means by which we intend to adapt. Again not all but some.

You seem very intent about disparaging this site and it’s members.

Do you have any suggestions for improvement?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'I')t doesn't matter for obvious reasons.

[Cog]

LATOC. Now that is a name I haven't heard for years. I do remember them banning me since my moderate position on doom did not comply with orthodoxy.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'L')ATOC. Now that is a name I haven't heard for years. I do remember them banning me since my moderate position on doom did not comply with orthodoxy.

[Cog]

The LATOC consensus, during the BP blowout, was that the Gulf of Mexico would be devoid of life for centuries or result in a fire that would result in the deathof millions of shore inhabitants. Opinions to the contrary were not acceptable. Extreme doom all the time no matter how major or minor the event.

[Newfie]

It is rather annoying to see how we (me) have been sucked into this doom spiral time and again. I consider myself humbled. Which isn’t a bad thing because it means I’ve gained some wisdom and really bad shit absent happens to me, yet.

Yet that does not mean that “doom” of some sort is not just around the corner, it just means we are terribly bad at predicting it. It more correctly, terrible at seeing how complex the world is so that we understand there are a myriad of corrective and adaptations, but also put falls.

Somewhere in this board we once contemplated how all doom is personal. When someone looses this house it’s an economic correction, unless it was your house, the then it’s catastrophic doom. The wise watch where other people tred and adjust their own path accordingly.

Someone remind me, what is the significance of the number of “hard core peakers” on this board?

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')Do you have any suggestions for improvement?