Resource management and price regulation and rationing.

by **MrMambo** » Fri 22 Jul 2005, 22:09:32

It all might sound dull. But for the world to get through the energy pinch in the best way one should decide what are the most important usages of the limited amounts of precious oil we have left.

Priorities could be:
Food production, and food transportation.
Fuling the water infrastructure.
After that it is basic services such as fire-protection, ambulances, hospitalse that should get their part.

As you extend such a list you will eventually end up in the less important parts of human existance. It is vital for our survival that we don't let purchasing power of the few wealthy people on the planet freely aquire all the oil they are able to buy. There must be limits, on person to person level. Each person will have a maximum of oil resources usage available, or else a lot more people dies. Rationing is typical for war-time crisis. Peak oil might be a crisis bigger than any war we have faced so I assume we will get to that point.

Another point is that if we let demand set the price of oil we will get in deep trouble. The concept of a free marked doesnt really grasp what happenes when something is limited. It is assumed that as prices rice a bunch of new supply will arise from the higher profit in the commodity, this in turn will then cause prices to fall until supply is withdrawn and so on around some theoretical equilibrium piont.

With oil, no such supply can be added and then the prices would just continue to rise, far above what normal people can pay for the stuff. In the end, only the filthy rich can play around with the oil, flying private jets, living in palaces surounded by swimmingpools and then suruonded by walls and armed guards etc. as the rest of the world starves.

To prevent such a deadly marked crisis we have to set maximum prices on the oil. The combination of maximum prices and maximum oil-consumption ratios per person is a dull yet effective way to get through it.

The maximum price should not be so low that alternatives become uncompetitive. The maximum consumption could be calculated on what is needed for basic survival, because we might be lucky if we even have that much.

by **EnergySpin** » Fri 22 Jul 2005, 22:36:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')riorities could be:
Food production, and transportation.
Fuling the water infrastructure.
After that it is basic services such as fire-protection, ambulances, hospitalse that should get their part.

by **MrMambo** » Sun 24 Jul 2005, 21:31:21

what I meant was transportation of food

by **jaws** » Sun 24 Jul 2005, 21:51:47

The measures you propose will create a crisis worse than anything you could have possibly imagined. Don't mess with the price system. Prices create their own peaceful rationing. If you impose rationing, you will get gas lines, fights, theft, murderous riots and rampant criminality.

by **Badger** » Sun 24 Jul 2005, 21:58:09

A possible reason western govts are not doing much about economic infrastructure is whats the point its probably too late if most will eventually have no job to go to no point providing the muffler guy with a bus to get to work to do what? To fix something that no longer exists? How many other vocations rely on the status quo? Food transport will be the only thing apart from oiling the essential services of govt to maintain order...as mentioned...

This is just another great unknown when it comes to the economics of oil depletion after economic depression comes the social aspect it will be as Kunstler called his book "The Long Emergency"

Wealthy people and corporations are not going to give up there perceived entitlements quickly...its human nature history teaches this

by **Licho** » Mon 25 Jul 2005, 04:26:20

Most countries have already prepared oil rationing strategy. Oil security is part of OECD and IEA membership requirements. Rationing in this context is designed to cover short-mid term disruption of oil supplies, but measures can be extended over longer period.
Priority lists and mechanism to distribute fuel as well as other measures for my country are well described in documents, sent by ministry to every public institution over year ago. Priority list is basically similar to what you suggest, but it's divided to public services (health, fire, police etc.) and essential private "services" (food prod., basic infrastructure). It contains list of gas station which will be distributing it and instructions how to obtain chip card to get rationed fuel. (Gas stations listed are currently ordinary commercial gas stations, so they will be licensed or taken over by goverment). Documents also contained many fill forms which were used to report back how much fuel public facility needs, how is it used, how essential it is, what are storage capacities and so on.

USA, Japan, European countries and many other developed countries are all members of IEA and OECD and already have strategies prepared for coping with lack of oil, including rationing, slow highway speed limits, carpooling incentives, free public mass transport, reduced work week, tele-working incentives, time-cyled bans for personal transportation (odd plate numbers allowed to drive only on odd days and so on).
I suggest you request materials from responsible branch of your goverment or administration. You will be surprised...

by **MrMambo** » Mon 25 Jul 2005, 07:14:10

by **MrMambo** » Mon 25 Jul 2005, 07:14:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'T')he measures you propose will create a crisis worse than anything you could have possibly imagined. Don't mess with the price system. Prices create their own peaceful rationing. If you impose rationing, you will get gas lines, fights, theft, murderous riots and rampant criminality.

by **MrMambo** » Mon 25 Jul 2005, 07:15:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'T')he measures you propose will create a crisis worse than anything you could have possibly imagined. Don't mess with the price system. Prices create their own peaceful rationing. If you impose rationing, you will get gas lines, fights, theft, murderous riots and rampant criminality.

by **MrMambo** » Mon 25 Jul 2005, 07:16:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'T')he measures you propose will create a crisis worse than anything you could have possibly imagined. Don't mess with the price system. Prices create their own peaceful rationing. If you impose rationing, you will get gas lines, fights, theft, murderous riots and rampant criminality.

by **Doly** » Mon 25 Jul 2005, 07:24:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'T')he measures you propose will create a crisis worse than anything you could have possibly imagined. Don't mess with the price system. Prices create their own peaceful rationing. If you impose rationing, you will get gas lines, fights, theft, murderous riots and rampant criminality.

by **jaws** » Mon 25 Jul 2005, 17:48:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'I')n times of scarcity, the price system creates a situation where the rich hoard all the available goods and the poor have nothing. This leads to fights, theft, murderous riots and rampant criminality.

by **jaws** » Mon 25 Jul 2005, 17:51:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'E')ven the Americans, with all their talk about how the magic hand of the market will solve every problem, did rationing during WWII. Which pretty much proves to me that it's the way to go.

by **Licho** » Tue 26 Jul 2005, 05:15:26

Yes, free market works great, but not in this case.
If you have lack of oil, and there is no replacement, price will go very high.
If it goes too high, public services might not have money to buy it (ambulances, firemen, police - they dont have unlimited money). Farmers might be even in worse situation, they need subsidies to survive even now, and with extremely expensive fuel and fertilizers many would simply bankrupt. That's why we need at least some rationing - to supply essential services.
Rest can be distributed using free market - ie I don't see the need to ration fuel to every citizen, only essential services should have guaranteed access.

And btw, while USA was "socialistic" state it's GDP rose at very high speed ..

by **I_Like_Plants** » Tue 26 Jul 2005, 06:09:13

Actually our abject worship of the "free market" is fairly recent. It really started with the greedy 1980s and Reagan. The US was a weird mix of more cowboyish and yet more socialist in say the 1950s. Kids' rifle clubs and lot of tough-guy stuff for the cowboy element, yet tons and tons of unionized workers and much much less privatization than now. And yes, rationing in WWII. Electric, telephone, etc companies were public utilities, remember that term? There was more collective togetherness...... Even the "jim crow" racial laws and customs could be considered a type of socialism, since they were widespread, government mandated, and in place for social good rather than for profit - dismantling those laws and customs were untimately done because they got in the way or profit and a homogeneous and obedient workforce.

by **jaws** » Tue 26 Jul 2005, 18:41:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Licho', 'Y')es, free market works great, but not in this case.
If you have lack of oil, and there is no replacement, price will go very high.
If it goes too high, public services might not have money to buy it (ambulances, firemen, police - they dont have unlimited money). Farmers might be even in worse situation, they need subsidies to survive even now, and with extremely expensive fuel and fertilizers many would simply bankrupt. That's why we need at least some rationing - to supply essential services.
Rest can be distributed using free market - ie I don't see the need to ration fuel to every citizen, only essential services should have guaranteed access.

by **Licho** » Tue 26 Jul 2005, 22:50:22

Eventually, farmers will be able to afford fuel, but if prices spikes quickly, many would simply bankrupt, price of food will react more slowly..

What do you mean tax based regulation? You mean fuel taxes for everyone except essential services? Well that's almost rationing..

by **EnergySpin** » Tue 26 Jul 2005, 23:10:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he U.S.A. was a socialist state during WWII. It is not a good example of an economy.

by **Badger** » Tue 26 Jul 2005, 23:50:09

Control of remaining resources under the present system will be about the Empire. Major and Minor Houses and the Corporation. Individuals do not count in their Market Economy apart from being serfs or doing there bidding in running the machinary or aquiring the dwindling planets resources. This time around its not about warring nations its about who has control over the planet you the inhabitants of the planet or the Empire and Corporation.

by **EnergySpin** » Wed 27 Jul 2005, 00:18:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Badger', 'C')ontrol of remaining resources under the present system will be about the Empire. Major and Minor Houses and the Corporation. Individuals do not count in their Market Economy apart from being serfs or doing there bidding in running the machinary or aquiring the dwindling planets resources. This time around its not about warring nations its about who has control over the planet you the inhabitants of the planet or the Empire and Corporation.

Resource management and price regulation and rationing.

Resource management and price regulation and rationing.

..

Please explain then, how markeprices create peace

Please explain then, how markeprices create peace

Please explain then, how markeprices create peace

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