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Where does the 82 million barrels a day idea come from?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Where does the 82 million barrels a day idea come from?

Unread postby BabyPeanut » Mon 25 Jul 2005, 16:25:33

This table:
BP Table of World Oil Production
was made in 2005 about 1994 through 2004.

It says in 2004 the world produced 80,200 thousand barrels a day which is 80.2 million a day.

Where does the mythical 82 million barrels a day idea come from?

Who's lying?

Or was there 1.8 million barrels a day that's coming from some already-produced source in 2004?
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Unread postby Sparaxis » Mon 25 Jul 2005, 17:06:37

I'm not sure what the "mythical 82 mmbd" idea is. How is it mythical?

Anyway, you shouldn't ascribe too much accruracy to these figures. Bottom line: no one really knows with precision what world production is since OPEC doesn't release accurate figures. You also have to know what is included in a "production" figure since different organization report differently.

Take BP and IEA for example. The BP chart you showed has 2004 production at 80.3 mmbd. The definition of production includes "crude oil, shale oil, oil sands and NGLs (natural gas liquids – the liquid content of natural gas where this is recovered separately)".

Then look at IEA's figures for 2004 (as of the June 2005 Oil Supply Monthly, p. 42.) They have 2004 production at 83.1 mmbd, with the definition of "crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-conventional sources and other sources of supply". The IEA numbers also include processing gain of 1.8 mmbd. Subtract the processing gain and supply would be 81.3 mmbd, or 1 mmbd higher than BP. Is the difference condensates and "other sources of supply"? Hard to say. They even have a convenient table to show you how much their historical figures are revised after the fact.

IEA shows 1Q05 supply at 83.8 mmb/d by their supply definition.
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Unread postby BabyPeanut » Wed 27 Jul 2005, 21:52:02

So the difference could be non-conventional oil.

Thanks.
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Unread postby Sparaxis » Wed 27 Jul 2005, 22:12:35

No, oil shale and tar sands are considered "non-conventional" oil and both organizations report the numbers. It appears more likely to be condensates and "other".
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