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Peak oil debate

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Postby Plantagenet » Sun 12 May 2019, 14:17:54

Coal use hits new record in India, with both India's domestic coal production AND coal imports hitting record levels.

[url=economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/69286279.cms]Coal use continues to grow in India[/url]

India was the world’s second largest producer of coal in 2017, the latest year for which data is available, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The country produced a tenth of the world’s coal, while China topped the list with 45% of global production. India was also the second largest coal importer, with a 16% share. China accounts for nearly half of global coal consumption, with India’s share at 13%.

India's economy is growing rapidly, and their use of coal is set to increase as well.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Postby Revi » Wed 15 May 2019, 08:28:35

Here is the latest from Peak Oil Barrel. Will the US production be enough to hold global peak oil off until 2020? If it does it will be getting interesting very soon. We'll see...

http://peakoilbarrel.com/opec-april-production-data-3/
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Re: Peak oil debate

Postby AdamB » Wed 15 May 2019, 09:30:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'H')ere is the latest from Peak Oil Barrel. Will the US production be enough to hold global peak oil off until 2020? If it does it will be getting interesting very soon. We'll see...

http://peakoilbarrel.com/opec-april-production-data-3/


With OPEC production curtailed because of issues in Libya and Venezuela, as well as a feeling of Saudi price supports, what will get interesting is that lesser demand (slightly slowing global economy appears to be happening) combined with US increasing output as long as the price remains higher brings 2 things into direct conflict.

The price needs to drop to balance supply and demand.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak oil debate

Postby onlooker » Sun 19 May 2019, 16:29:06

Peak oil is here and it will break Economies


https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... -recession
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Re: Peak oil debate

Postby AdamB » Sun 19 May 2019, 17:52:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', '[')b] Peak oil is here and it will break Economies


https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... -recession


Peak oil has been here for a century now, since the USGS declared it for the US in 1919. And this article is from 6 years ago...and seems to recycle some of the same ideas that didn't work last time, same claims, same arguments.

Do you have any reference from someone who has learned why a centuries worth of claimed peak oils haven't worked out as claimed, and corrected for all that cumulative stupid?
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Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak oil debate

Postby Revi » Tue 21 May 2019, 10:34:33

It could be now!

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/18/th ... few-years/
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Re: Peak oil debate

Postby shortonoil » Tue 21 May 2019, 11:15:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eak oil is here and it will break Economies


To confirm that statement all that is needed to be known is that the replacement cost of a barrel of oil is now more than twice the value of the oil. The economic part follows right behind without much cephalic effort. Once existing fields go into decline they can not be replaced, and the IEA says that is now happening at the rate of 4½ % per year.

The world's economy is now dying from energy starvation. QED

There is likely to be some "official" response to the situation in the near future. It is also likely that the cure will be worse than the disease.

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Re: Peak oil debate

Postby onlooker » Tue 21 May 2019, 11:21:29

Yes, Adam, things have only gotten worse from 6 years ago.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Postby rockdoc123 » Tue 21 May 2019, 11:37:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')o confirm that statement all that is needed to be known is that the replacement cost of a barrel of oil is now more than twice the value of the oil.
 


What a complete load of BS. The 2018 Ernst & Young analysis of the top 50 oil and gas companies operating in the US lays out the Reserve Replacement Cost or RRC. For all companies, the three-year average if $15.72 and for 5 years it is 15.95. These numbers are skewed higher due to the large number of reserve revisions which occurred across the board in 2015 due to falling prices (all of which have been recovered since). Over the past five years at it’s lowest price crude was ~$30/bbl and the average is much higher than that. In 2017 RRCs were $6.62/boe for all companies. Examples of companies reporting: Cabot oil RRC of $2.53/bbl , CNX Resources Corp RRC of $3.47/bbl, Southwestern RRC of $3.53/bbl, Range Resources RRC of $4.48/bbl. So your claim, as usual, is complete nonsense.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Postby AdamB » Tue 21 May 2019, 15:59:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'Y')es, Adam, things have only gotten worse from 6 years ago.


Really? You invest in a different stock market than I have? You manage to miss those wonderfully mass produced 4 wheeled devices that allow people to be peak oil fuel shortage and price proof when the next peak oil arrives? Have you not been able to find some employment? My kids are collecting Minimum wage + $4/hr extra jobs in the tight labor market, the daughter just signed up for her next internship for the summer, her mother is irritated because she isn't going to be home for the summer again. Your housing value decreased where you live? Someone give you an overpriced airline ticket, because I just bought a round tripper across the country for beach week and I can't believe the things are under $200.

Might I suggest that is things have gotten worse for you over the past 6 years it is because you aren't trying?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak oil debate

Postby onlooker » Tue 21 May 2019, 18:27:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'Y')es, Adam, things have only gotten worse from 6 years ago.


Really? You invest in a different stock market than I have? You manage to miss those wonderfully mass produced 4 wheeled devices that allow people to be peak oil fuel shortage and price proof when the next peak oil arrives? Have you not been able to find some employment? My kids are collecting Minimum wage + $4/hr extra jobs in the tight labor market, the daughter just signed up for her next internship for the summer, her mother is irritated because she isn't going to be home for the summer again. Your housing value decreased where you live? Someone give you an overpriced airline ticket, because I just bought a round tripper across the country for beach week and I can't believe the things are under $200.

Might I suggest that is things have gotten worse for you over the past 6 years it is because you aren't trying?


Yeah, and Discoveries keep getting ever less and the Shale sweet spots also. Rockdoc, says we contradict ourselves by classifying Venezuelan oil as sludge unfit for favorable economic exploitation but believe US is trying to force regime change there. No contradiction, it shows how desperate we are getting. Oh and time is running out to construct even a rudimentary energy replacement matrix as the oil age winds down. So enjoy it while you can
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Re: Peak oil debate

Postby onlooker » Tue 21 May 2019, 18:34:19

"Shale boom belies oil patch pain"

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2019/5/15 ... bankruptcy
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Re: Peak oil debate

Postby rockdoc123 » Tue 21 May 2019, 21:15:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')eah, and Discoveries keep getting ever less and the Shale sweet spots also. Rockdoc, says we contradict ourselves by classifying Venezuelan oil as sludge unfit for favorable economic exploitation but believe US is trying to force regime change there. No contradiction, it shows how desperate we are getting.
 

What planet are you living on? The US is desperate for oil? Right.....and Babe Ruth invented basketball. :roll:

IN 2013 US proved oil reserves for the 50 largest companies was 24,624 MMB in the end of 2017 it was 28,960 MMB an increase of 20% hardly suggests they are in trouble. Total US production during that period increased from ~6 MMB/d to ~10 MMB/d. Total US oil exports during that same period increased from ~3,000 bopd to ~8,000 bopd. The three year average production replacement rate for those companies was 128% and the five year replacement rate was 164%. Not sure how anyone with half a brain could imagine that the US was desperate for oil based on the actual data. [smilie=bduh.gif]
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Re: Peak oil debate

Postby coffeeguyzz » Wed 22 May 2019, 00:10:17

The expectations of the Brazilian government are pretty bullish concerning the potential of their pre salt resources.

I have not kept up with the latest goings on in the pre salt world, but, last I read, the advances in 3D seismic were indicating some high probability prospects, especially in Da Guf.

If some of the uber optimistic projections prove valid, could be multi decades long hydrocarbon supply yet to be tapped.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Postby marmico » Wed 22 May 2019, 04:56:24

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Re: Peak oil debate

Postby AdamB » Wed 22 May 2019, 09:02:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'Y')es, Adam, things have only gotten worse from 6 years ago.


Really? You invest in a different stock market than I have? You manage to miss those wonderfully mass produced 4 wheeled devices that allow people to be peak oil fuel shortage and price proof when the next peak oil arrives? Have you not been able to find some employment? My kids are collecting Minimum wage + $4/hr extra jobs in the tight labor market, the daughter just signed up for her next internship for the summer, her mother is irritated because she isn't going to be home for the summer again. Your housing value decreased where you live? Someone give you an overpriced airline ticket, because I just bought a round tripper across the country for beach week and I can't believe the things are under $200.

Might I suggest that is things have gotten worse for you over the past 6 years it is because you aren't trying?


Yeah, and Discoveries keep getting ever less and the Shale sweet spots also.


As has been noted during the last peak oil, discoveries were smaller than as well, and it didn't cause peak oil.

Shale sweet spots have been getting less since I was doing shale recompletions back in the 1980's in fields that had taken away all best sweet spots from me in the 1920's. Those pesky sweet spots were disappearing before you were born, and because those of us who have developed them across a century didn't tell you about it until now, that makes things worse?

I provided a list for you to be able to mention how much worse things are for you, and yet you avoided mentioning any of them? I wonder why?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', '
') Rockdoc, says we contradict ourselves by classifying Venezuelan oil as sludge unfit for favorable economic exploitation but believe US is trying to force regime change there. No contradiction, it shows how desperate we are getting. Oh and time is running out to construct even a rudimentary energy replacement matrix as the oil age winds down. So enjoy it while you can


Rockdoc appears to agree with the USGS which is to say when peak oil amateur hour shows up and pretends that oil isn't oil because of its density, they don't know what they are talking about. Or perhaps you have never worked with chemical engineers who can turn not only oily dirt into gasoline but natural gas?

Oh, and all of this was also claimed during the peak oils espoused right here that never happened either, maybe you are now living in an alternate reality where once a claim turns out not to be true, you only rinse and recycle the same claims among the other true believers because you know they were gullible enough to fall for it the last time?

FYI, there ain't near as many that gullible anymore.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak oil debate

Postby AdamB » Wed 22 May 2019, 09:06:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', '&')quot;Shale boom belies oil patch pain"

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2019/5/15 ... bankruptcy


Oh my Weatherford, how we never knew ye!

4 years now of lower prices and this is the best you can do for why peak oilers are demonstrable full of fecal matter? Pretty meager there Onlooker.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak oil debate

Postby coffeeguyzz » Wed 22 May 2019, 12:57:03

Argentina is about to export LNG - sourced from the massive Vaca Muerta - for the first time in the coming days.
Using the FLNG - Tango - recently berthed at Bahia Blanca, Argentina is in a position to quickly ramp up production, if political and other topside factors do not impede this growth.

For any of you folks truly serious about the future course of this imminent jump in hydrocarbon potential world wide, you may want to at least glance at the ongoing efforts taking place in this industry.

Fact is, with the blinding pace of innovation spear headed by efforts in the Bakken, in the Appalachian Basin, unconventional hydrocarbon production is INCREASING its footprint both in existing plays and prospective regions worldwide.

Operators can now more accurately identify targets, drill precisely 20,000 foot measured depth wells in just a few days, employ GREATLY improved completion practices that now recover in the 20% range the original OOIP/OGIP (up from 3% years ago), along with a vast array of new hardware - especially in the LNG realm - so as to provide decades of hydrocarbon abundance for the world's consumers.

All this is easily confirmable by simply reading of the latest news of the day.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Postby StarvingLion » Wed 22 May 2019, 13:02:33

Did coffeeguise tell you that CNX is down 5% today?

Did he tell you that CNX has gone from $14 to $7.89 in the past 6 months?

Nope.

I guess that transition from Oil to NG aint goin so good.

Back to more Hydrogen Hoax Economy nonsense.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Postby AdamB » Wed 22 May 2019, 14:09:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StarvingLion', 'D')id coffeeguise tell you that CNX is down 5% today?

Did he tell you that CNX has gone from $14 to $7.89 in the past 6 months?

Nope.


Quite true. But you told us years ago that money wasn't worth anything. What do you pay for your food with, beads and wampum? What is that stock drop worth, in beads and wampum? Seems reasonable to mention that we won't be taking any investment advice from the likes of you.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StarvingLion', '
')
I guess that transition from Oil to NG aint goin so good.
Back to more Hydrogen Hoax Economy nonsense.


What's that thar hydrogen worth in beads and wampum?
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