How did you find out about peak oil?

by **MattSavinar** » Wed 21 Jul 2004, 15:32:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CeeCee', 'I') first heard of it about 6 weeks ago when I went to a 1-day workshop on sustainable land use for farmers and horticulturalists. One of the participants kept standing up and asking questions like "But when the price of oil reaches $80 a barrel HOW will you get your produce to market?" He was very insistent with his questions and provided a quick summary of peak oil theory. People at the workshop didn't know how to take him and the atmosphere was a little bit awkward. He left at lunchtime.
But he'd made his point, and then I looked up oil crisis on google > peak oil etc.
Now I am a convert too.
Since then I have bumped into him at the shops (we live in a small community) and the next time I see him I'll thank him, and discuss next steps to get more people aware.
I think at some deep level I have always known this too. It makes perfect sense. My background is a mix of science (physics) and social science (sociology and education).

by **TripleGemini** » Wed 21 Jul 2004, 16:16:05

I sure enjoy these boards! Thanks one and all!

I learned about Peak Oil 3/4 months ago in an article in The Mountain Astrologer. It was an article about what America (specifically) can expect in the next 10 years or so. I believe it predicted total economic collapse around 2012. I didn't necessarily believe the article. However.....at the end of the article...there it was!!! (Simplified version)

"Even if you don't believe in predictive astrology, just google "Peak Oil"

So I googled Peak Oil and it ROCKED MY WORLD!

Trip

by **MattSavinar** » Wed 21 Jul 2004, 19:26:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TripleGemini', 'I') sure enjoy these boards! Thanks one and all!

I learned about Peak Oil 3/4 months ago in an article in The Mountain Astrologer. It was an article about what America (specifically) can expect in the next 10 years or so. I believe it predicted total economic collapse around 2012. I didn't necessarily believe the article. However.....at the end of the article...there it was!!! (Simplified version)

"Even if you don't believe in predictive astrology, just google "Peak Oil"

So I googled Peak Oil and it ROCKED MY WORLD!

Trip

by **Skeletor** » Wed 21 Jul 2004, 23:57:20

I was browsing the Airsoft Canada offtopic forum and someone posted several links about peak oil including Matt's site, this site, and Die Off. Since I first read Matt's site I have been trying to gather as much information as possible.

by **CeeCee** » Mon 26 Jul 2004, 05:09:20

lowem wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]MattSavinar wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') seem to get a good deal of email from folks in the engineering profession. I think they understand the seriousness of the situation once they look at the numbers and the dynamics ...

by **archaen** » Mon 26 Jul 2004, 06:25:10

Hey Ceecee,

I am personally an INTP by the MBTI. I think that the two important characteristics out of that group would be the thinking and intuitive portions acting in concert. The intuitive section is needes to take in the data on peak oil and see its net effect on our entire set of systems. It is easy for an intuitive person to see the ripple effect of peak as they think of things in terms of interconnected systems. The intuitive lives in the future, and can easily extrapolate from fractured and incomplete data which is mostly what we have at this point.

A sensing person lives in the present and makes decisions based on past experiences. In a sensing persons world, oil has been cheap, is cheap, and will always be cheap. And since the data about reserves and such varies so wildly, they can't take anything about peak oil serious as this contradicts their hard facts prerequisite.

The thinking part is needed for the next part of the process after we have initially grasped peak oil but need to prove the consequences to ourselves in a concrete manner. A thinking person is able to go through all the data no matter what the shock value and put all the data into perspective to gain a total view. A strong feeling individual, even though he may have the intuitive knowledge, has a hard time accepting the emotional realities that such a theory entails. Basically their feeling shut down their faculties when the consequences dawn and they shove away the thought of that reality as it is anathma to their personal world view. Feeling individuals have a very strong aversion to conflict and peak oil sets up several internal conflicts(Im contributing, my lifestyle is dangerous,but Im a caring person and would never hurt someone, etc) and thoughts of societal conflicts with all they know being put in jeopardy( wars, changing social structures, alienation from the *norm*if they accept peak oil views; *being accepted by the norm is very important for feeling people, they need to be accepted to feel whole or gain emotional energy*).

These two are, in my opinion, the more important of the four. I mean, being introverted will make you more likely to stumble onto the theory

.

*Pan to webcam showing archaen in a dark room surrounded by three computers, a fridge full of soda, and thirty tabs open on his firefox browser* as compared to joe outgoing guy who is out at the bar/pool hall/whatever most of the time and not surfing slashdot posts at 3 in the morning and stumbling across matt's site.

But it should not really affect comprehension or intellectual conclusion of the person presented with peak oil.

As for the judging/percieving portion, I belieive this is your method of planning based on your analysis. This is more in the realm how you react after you have made a decision about information, rather than being in the process of digesting information.

This is all conjecture BTW, I am a chemical engineer in training, not a psychologist. So, if I have any gaping holes in my analysis or you guys have a better theory, feel free to tear me to shreds :wink:

.

by **lowem** » Mon 26 Jul 2004, 10:25:26

Veering into personality territory, eh? Ok, I'll bite ..

I'm INTJ as well.

by **Leanan** » Mon 26 Jul 2004, 11:33:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')rony? Several months ago my father - now approaching 90 - asked me if I had ever heard of a guy named Colin Campbell.

by **CarlinsDarlin** » Mon 26 Jul 2004, 14:31:45

I have no idea how I ended up on Matt's site, but somehow I did. I think it was when I was doing some research on sustainable living. I have always been interested in sustainable agricultural methods, environmental causes, etc. My interests come to me naturally, not from my parents, but from my grandparents. My Grandma was a life long subscriber to Organic Gardening and Mother Earth News. I had no choice but to follow that ilk

.

At any rate, since I stumbled across Matt's site, I have visited and read on every other site related to Peak Oil that I could find. I am excited every time I discover another one. Excited, and at the same time, scared. But my take is that I can only do what I can do - prepare as best I can... but it helps to be as informed as possible. I have been able to share the information I have gleaned from web sites with a few people, but only a couple have taken me seriously. That being said, I ordered Matt's book last week (:)) and hope to use it to bolster my arguments. Some people won't ever get it, though. I know that.

As for personality types - I think I'll buck the trend so far :wink:

- I'm ENFP (so tell me, how does that make me fit in these forums? lol)
Kathy

by **Canuck** » Mon 26 Jul 2004, 17:50:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')rony? Several months ago my father - now approaching 90 - asked me if I had ever heard of a guy named Colin Campbell.

by **OilBurner** » Tue 27 Jul 2004, 05:51:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Canuck', '
')I can't remember what I was when I took the Myers-Briggs test. It is surely a crock anyway.

by **buster** » Fri 13 Aug 2004, 00:20:02

Old thread but, as I'm new here...why not?

Was flipping the remote and came across a "Heritage Foundation" seminar on CSPAN, about a month ago. I detest the HF, but thought I might get fired up to write something for my blog.

Matthew Simmons talked, I listened. Dug up all I could find on the web, bit by bit. As a result, my blog is now mostly about energy issues. It's been frustrating drumming up readers, I suspect most people stumbling across my site think I'm a nut, though I try to make a clean, relatively unbiased presentation (though I am openly left-of-democrat).

I didn't come across Matt's site until tonight, glad I finally found somplace where these ideas are discussed!

by **kochevnik** » Sat 14 Aug 2004, 15:58:16

On another forum for PeakOil is a poll regarding the MBTI ...

Better than 90 Percent of posters are either INTP or INTJ.

I believe that certain personality types exist in society to improve survival probabilities. INTP's understand topics like PeakOil intuitively. Try explaining it to other personality types and you'll be mostly wasting your breath.

Since INTP's (INTJ's just slightly more) make up less than 2 percent of the population I think the chance of a soft landing at a societal level is practically nil. On the bright side, when INTP's and INTJ's make up the majority of population in the future, we will have a lot more people to talk to who are on our own wavelength.

BTW, I'm INTP.

I knew about PeakOil from the Limits to Growth book back in the 1970's. Just been waiting for it to finallly rear it's ugly head. The time has come.

The Fourth Turning book also is a tremendous, invaluable source of information ...

http://www.fourthturning.com

Like CarlinsDarlin & others in various forums, it is ABSOLUTELY clear to me that 4T & PO are on a collision course from hell ... because I have come to the conclusion that PO is not about the oil, as much as it is about the perceptions of the societies and individuals involved.

kochevnik

by **jato** » Sat 14 Aug 2004, 19:21:55

INTJ

I heard about peak oil on Coast to Coast AM radio. I did a Google search on "peak oil" about 2 weeks ago & here I am.

I am sold on peak oil and I think it will cause TEOTWAWKI. I am not sure when the havoc will arrive. I wish I had more time/money to prepare.

by **Leanan** » Sat 14 Aug 2004, 19:31:55

Interesting theory. They do call INTPs "Architects." Because they build things. Not houses, but whole systems.

My sister is ISTP, and while she accepts peak oil, she isn't too worried about it. She thinks we'll be able to switch to alternatives and be all right. Of course, the fact that her undergrad degree is in economics might have something to do with it. ;-)

by **Terran** » Mon 30 Aug 2004, 07:15:51

I've heard about the term peak oil back in March 2004, I was in A.P environmental science, we were studying the chapter about fossil fuels, and I was reading the dynamics of oil production. In that textbook they mentioned peak oil in one sentence. I simply said to myself, it's not going to happan until another century had passed.

In May, I was reading through some forum I formally visit rogue science forum, I found a link to Matts site, I didn't read anything it was 2AM, had I had class the next day.

The next day afterschool I went to totse forum, another forum I visit, it's mainly a hangout place for teenagers. Ironically I came across the link to Matt's site again, I read through everything, and watch the flash film. From that momment on I was pretty convinced and scared shitless.

by **Falconoffury** » Mon 30 Aug 2004, 15:39:06

I have been reading and learning all types of sciences in my spare time, but I chose software development in college. I am one of those gifted individuals who didn't have to study in high school, and didn't even have to study until I started taking classes like Advanced C++ and Java.

My favorite topics are about aliens and conspiracy. After years of reading about these topics, I had never stumbled upon peak oil. In a writing class, I did a report on overpopulation, and I still never stumbled upon dieoff.org or any peak oil site!

Finally, I stumbled onto Matt's site through Fark.com. I read almost exclusively about energy now.

by **mgibbons19** » Mon 30 Aug 2004, 15:45:20

[quote="kochevnik"]

The Fourth Turning book also is a tremendous, invaluable source of information ...

http://www.fourthturning.com

Like CarlinsDarlin & others in various forums, it is ABSOLUTELY clear to me that 4T & peak oil are on a collision course from hell ... because I have come to the conclusion that peak oil is not about the oil, as much as it is about the perceptions of the societies and individuals involved.
[quote]

I came here from there.

Peak Oil came to me when I was trying to write a manuscript about the suburbs and what ineffencies threatened them. Home debt is one. Car cost is another. Infrastructure maintenance is another. And there is not much room for volatile fuel costs. Researching petroleum looking for the eventual runup in prices shocked me to find ppl arguing about whether the peak was now or 5 years from now. That was about 18 months ago.

by **mgibbons19** » Mon 30 Aug 2004, 15:46:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', '
')
The Fourth Turning book also is a tremendous, invaluable source of information ...

http://www.fourthturning.com

Like CarlinsDarlin & others in various forums, it is ABSOLUTELY clear to me that 4T & peak oil are on a collision course from hell ... because I have come to the conclusion that peak oil is not about the oil, as much as it is about the perceptions of the societies and individuals involved.

by **pea-jay** » Mon 30 Aug 2004, 16:30:19

I am a natural resource planner for a county in central California and when my boss asked me if we have enough materials to sustain our projected growth rate, I went and researched it. I started out by looking at this from a mineral depletion standpoint first, before connecting with the peak oil perspective. I do remember first reading Richard Heinberg's letter from 2100 and thinking it cant get that bad, since we DO have alternatives. Thats how I left it for about a week or two before reading DieOff and LifeAftertheOilCrash. Gee...thanks for the reality check guys.

Anyhow, I ditched the idea of relocating to NYC (not a good idea) and set out planning for whats next. I am a planner and thats what I am good at.

I am currently trying to incorporate our energy constrained future into our general plan here at the county. Am finding that it runs counter to every assumption people have made here.

This is going to be one tough sell

How did you find out about peak oil?

MBTI

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