[Yoshua]

The falling EROEI of coal and natural gas is of course just going to make everything so much worse.

[marmico]

Your EROI graph is bull shit, ETP Bozo. EROI was not 80 in 1960 nor is it 10 in 2020.The only energy starvation is those morons who need to express net energy supply in EROI terms.

A decline in net energy supply from EROI 40 to EROI 20 is the equivalent of a percentage decline from 92.5% to 90%. That is not even noticeable in the grand scheme.

AFAIK there is not a single EROI academic that can empirically demonstrate that the EROI of oil from the well head to the gasoline tank has declined between 1968 and 2018. If there is, produce the paper.

[shortonoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he falling EROEI of coal and natural gas is of course just going to make everything so much worse.

[shortonoil]

ERoEI closely mapped the price of oil until reaching the 2012 energy half way point. After 2012 the correlation between petroleum production and world GDP began breaking down. It appears that the energy delivery of petroleum has now fallen too low for it to act as a control on the value of the dollar. Without the necessary control factor the value of the dollar is now undefined. It is at the mercy of the political expediencies of the central banks, and is no longer acting as a reliable, and independent mechanism for true price discovery.
click to enlarge

[Yoshua]

OPEC is worried about rising inventories in the U.S and Europe. But there are reports of a massive petroleum products glut in China. Officially everything is of course humming along nicely in Communist China. But with lot of numbers tanking by 20 percent in a Chinese hard landing...the glut is probably massive.

[shortonoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut with lot of numbers tanking by 20 percent in a Chinese hard landing...the glut is probably massive.

[Yoshua]

World trade in goods peaked in 2014.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX ... view=chart

[asg70]

Short, if you're going to spam this board with that stupid pic of yours can you at least learn to trim the bottom off so we don't have a ton of useless whitespace to scroll through?

[shortonoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')orld trade in goods peaked in 2014.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX ... view=chart

[EdwinSm]

Short, this is a comment about your last graph about the GDP disconnecting from oil production.

Could there be a factor in causing the disconnect that represents the unexpectedly (by major forecasters) fast rise of renewable energy? I know that the starting base-% is low so that in early years this could be ignored, but at some stage as the energy mix transforms linking GDP to just one source of energy is bound to bring distortions.

So looking that the chart you are saying there is disaster in store, whereas I can look at it as wonder if the transformation from oil is working (and showing up in the charts ).

[shortonoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')hort, this is a comment about your last graph about the GDP disconnecting from oil production.

Could there be a factor in causing the disconnect that represents the unexpectedly (by major forecasters) fast rise of renewable energy? I know that the starting base-% is low so that in early years this could be ignored, but at some stage as the energy mix transforms linking GDP to just one source of energy is bound to bring distortions.

So looking that the chart you are saying there is disaster in store, whereas I can look at it as wonder if the transformation from oil is working (and showing up in the charts)

[dissident]

The claim that GDP is decoupling from oil is patent BS. The correlation between the GDP and CO2 emissions remains within the same tight bounds. If the claim was correct, then the GDP growth and CO2 emissions growth would be decoupling. I notice that a lot of so-called economists do not really understand inflation adjustment. The enormous debt growth over the last 30 years and more has created the delusion that GDP can grow through consumer wishes and company advertisements without any other inputs. Then we have the shenanigans with oil price manipulation by the so-called free market. Because, everyone knows, that US gasoline stock levels represent the physical global oil supply potential and demand for crude oil.

So non adjusted by real inflation GDP numbers pumped up by debt generation and oil price undervaluations are thrown around to "prove" this GDP detached from physical reality BS. Alternatives are a drop in the bucket as of the present time. They cannot account for the alleged "decoupling".

[EdwinSm]

[crawling back into a dark corner with a ] It looks like I misread the chart with it bending the wrong way! Short, thanks for taking the time for a good reply.

[shortonoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')crawling back into a dark corner with a ] It looks like I misread the chart with it bending the wrong way! Short, thanks for taking the time for a good reply.

[onlooker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', 'T')he claim that GDP is decoupling from oil is patent BS. The correlation between the GDP and CO2 emissions remains within the same tight bounds. If the claim was correct, then the GDP growth and CO2 emissions growth would be decoupling. I notice that a lot of so-called economists do not really understand inflation adjustment. The enormous debt growth over the last 30 years and more has created the delusion that GDP can grow through consumer wishes and company advertisements without any other inputs. Then we have the shenanigans with oil price manipulation by the so-called free market. Because, everyone knows, that US gasoline stock levels represent the physical global oil supply potential and demand for crude oil.

So non adjusted by real inflation GDP numbers pumped up by debt generation and oil price undervaluations are thrown around to "prove" this GDP detached from physical reality BS. Alternatives are a drop in the bucket as of the present time. They cannot account for the alleged "decoupling".

[dissident]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', 'T')he claim that GDP is decoupling from oil is patent BS. The correlation between the GDP and CO2 emissions remains within the same tight bounds. If the claim was correct, then the GDP growth and CO2 emissions growth would be decoupling. I notice that a lot of so-called economists do not really understand inflation adjustment. The enormous debt growth over the last 30 years and more has created the delusion that GDP can grow through consumer wishes and company advertisements without any other inputs. Then we have the shenanigans with oil price manipulation by the so-called free market. Because, everyone knows, that US gasoline stock levels represent the physical global oil supply potential and demand for crude oil.

So non adjusted by real inflation GDP numbers pumped up by debt generation and oil price undervaluations are thrown around to "prove" this GDP detached from physical reality BS. Alternatives are a drop in the bucket as of the present time. They cannot account for the alleged "decoupling".

[onlooker]

Yes, totally agree D

[shortonoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')asically leaving the Economy and society with a tremendous debt load even as net energy dwindles.

[onlooker]

Thank you once again Short for this superbly logical explanation and all your work. We are at a point whereby debating with the naysayers is comical as they do not concede or cannot understand at its most basic how all this has been transpiring as logical cause and effect.

The MAP obviously cannot project out oil price in this now chaotic monetary system without any point of reference. But the energy accounting that your group has devised is giving us an idea of the approaching inflection points.

[dissident]

I think that diminishing returns regime is not just for cheap fossil fuels. There is a general degradation associated with overpopulation and the accumulating toxic chemical pollution in the environment. Development is a zero sum game in the long run since the planet has finite resources and finite accommodation capacity for humans their precious economy, which mostly translates into rapid garbage production (and entropy maximization).